Severe Thunderstorm Warning 241, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1223 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

THE BIG ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ASSESSING THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NORTHWEST AS WE WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHEAST SIDE
OF A DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
SMALL IMPULSES WILL MAKE THEIR WAY THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP WITH ITS AXIS
MORE THAN LIKELY WEST OF THE CWA...NOT HEADING EAST INTO THE CWA
UNTIL MAINLY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT
TIME WILL BE INSTABILITY. THERE IS AND WILL BE PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KTS. IT SEEMS THAT WE ARE STRUGGLING TO
REACH MUCH MORE THAN 1000 J/KG OF CAPE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS...BUT OUR FAR WEST MIGHT GET INTO THE REALM OF 1500 TO 2000
J/KG. SOME CONVECTION HAS FIRED OVER THE LBF CWA AND HAS PROMPTED
SOME WARNINGS...BUT STORMS FIZZLE AS THEY GET CLOSE TO OUR CWA. AS
THE LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS TONIGHT...THIS COULD HELP CONVECTION KEEP
GOING AND WILL GIVE US A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN TONIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST
INTO OUR AREA. MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...SO WE ARE
LOOKING AT A MARGINAL SEVERE EVENT...IF ANY SEVERE WEATHER OCCURS.

ENSEMBLES POINT TOWARD MEASURABLE RAIN TONIGHT AND I HAVE INCREASED
CHANCES OF RAIN ALONG WITH AMOUNTS OF RAIN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS LOOKS A LITTLE SLUGGISH TO GET OUT
OF HERE IN THE MORNING AND I HAVE HELD ON TO CONSIDERABLE CHANCES OF
RAIN FOR THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST/SOUTHEAST. THE AFTERNOON
LOOKS DRY...ESPECIALLY FROM SUBSIDENCE JUST BEHIND THE EXPECTED
EXITING CONVECTION. MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...WIND...AND SKY COVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

THE PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS
RECENTLY AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE BACK
WEST...ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE A TROUGH IS SITUATED ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ONTARIO REGION. THIS SETUP LEADS TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THUS NUMEROUS PERTURBATIONS
SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION FUELING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THATS EXACTLY WHAT WE CAN EXPECT IN THE LONG TERM WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES POPPING UP EVERY OTHER DAY TO EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS. STARTING
OFF FRIDAY...ONE OF THOSE DISTUBANCES IN COMBINATION WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. ALTHOUGH
IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL SAG...SOME
MODELS INDICATE MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA COULD BE NORTH OF
THIS FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY SIGNALING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ACROSS NEBRASKA VERSUS UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100
ACROSS KANSAS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

TRENDS CONTINUE INTO THE WORKWEEK WITH ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AND CLIMBING INTO THE 80S TO LOW 90S MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE TERMINAL FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THE KEAR TERMINAL IF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST WILL GET INTO
THE TERMINAL. AT THIS TIME EXPECT THEM TO STAY TO THE WEST. CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE DIMINISH AROUND SUNRISE THEN INCREASE AGAIN
LATER TODAY. VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...JCB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
558 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
101200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
558 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL
AND WIND. HAIL NEAR GOLF BALL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SEVERE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...CHANCES FOR SPOTTY
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FOR PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO IDENTIFY
ANY KIND OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH REGARD TO THE
TIMING...LOCATION...AND INTENSITY OF POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

HEINLEIN/SALTZMAN/HALBLAUB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
102 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

NEZ082-100645-
FURNAS NE-
102 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN HARLAN AND FURNAS
COUNTIES UNTIL 145 AM CDT...

AT 101 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR CAMBRIDGE TO 7 MILES
SOUTH OF DANBURY...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CAMBRIDGE...ARAPAHOE...OXFORD...BEAVER CITY...HOLBROOK...EDISON...
WILSONVILLE...HENDLEY AND HOLLINGER.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT
THURSDAY MORNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4035 9963 4000 9963 4000 10019 4035 10020
TIME...MOT...LOC 0601Z 291DEG 40KT 4032 10021 3993 10042

ROSSI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
114 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0112 AM     HAIL             5 N LEXINGTON           40.85N 99.74W
07/10/2014  E1.00 INCH       DAWSON             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0112 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 N LEXINGTON           40.85N 99.74W
07/10/2014  E60 MPH          DAWSON             NE   911 CALL CENTER

            50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS

&&

JCB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
118 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

KSZ017-100700-
ROOKS KS-
118 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN PHILLIPS AND ROOKS
COUNTIES UNTIL 200 AM CDT...

AT 117 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
PLAINVILLE...OR 19 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NICODEMUS...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PLAINVILLE...STOCKTON...PALCO...WOODSTON...DAMAR...ZURICH...CODELL
AND WEBSTER STATE PARK.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT
THURSDAY MORNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 3914 9960 3957 9960 3957 9906 3913 9905
TIME...MOT...LOC 0617Z 287DEG 16KT 3922 9932

ROSSI

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>