Severe Thunderstorm Warning 222, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
633 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

THE BIG ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ASSESSING THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NORTHWEST AS WE WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHEAST SIDE
OF A DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
SMALL IMPULSES WILL MAKE THEIR WAY THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP WITH ITS AXIS
MORE THAN LIKELY WEST OF THE CWA...NOT HEADING EAST INTO THE CWA
UNTIL MAINLY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT
TIME WILL BE INSTABILITY. THERE IS AND WILL BE PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KTS. IT SEEMS THAT WE ARE STRUGGLING TO
REACH MUCH MORE THAN 1000 J/KG OF CAPE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS...BUT OUR FAR WEST MIGHT GET INTO THE REALM OF 1500 TO 2000
J/KG. SOME CONVECTION HAS FIRED OVER THE LBF CWA AND HAS PROMPTED
SOME WARNINGS...BUT STORMS FIZZLE AS THEY GET CLOSE TO OUR CWA. AS
THE LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS TONIGHT...THIS COULD HELP CONVECTION KEEP
GOING AND WILL GIVE US A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN TONIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST
INTO OUR AREA. MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...SO WE ARE
LOOKING AT A MARGINAL SEVERE EVENT...IF ANY SEVERE WEATHER OCCURS.

ENSEMBLES POINT TOWARD MEASURABLE RAIN TONIGHT AND I HAVE INCREASED
CHANCES OF RAIN ALONG WITH AMOUNTS OF RAIN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS LOOKS A LITTLE SLUGGISH TO GET OUT
OF HERE IN THE MORNING AND I HAVE HELD ON TO CONSIDERABLE CHANCES OF
RAIN FOR THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST/SOUTHEAST. THE AFTERNOON
LOOKS DRY...ESPECIALLY FROM SUBSIDENCE JUST BEHIND THE EXPECTED
EXITING CONVECTION. MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...WIND...AND SKY COVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

THE PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS
RECENTLY AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE BACK
WEST...ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE A TROUGH IS SITUATED ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ONTARIO REGION. THIS SETUP LEADS TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THUS NUMEROUS PERTURBATIONS
SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION FUELING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THATS EXACTLY WHAT WE CAN EXPECT IN THE LONG TERM WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES POPPING UP EVERY OTHER DAY TO EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS. STARTING
OFF FRIDAY...ONE OF THOSE DISTUBANCES IN COMBINATION WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. ALTHOUGH
IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL SAG...SOME
MODELS INDICATE MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA COULD BE NORTH OF
THIS FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY SIGNALING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ACROSS NEBRASKA VERSUS UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100
ACROSS KANSAS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

TRENDS CONTINUE INTO THE WORKWEEK WITH ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AND CLIMBING INTO THE 80S TO LOW 90S MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...BUT WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE MONITORING RADAR TRENDS AND UPDATE THE TAFS AS NECESSARY.
WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST...BUT MAY BECOME VARIABLE IN
THE PRESENCE OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS
NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...BRYANT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
558 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
101200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
558 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL
AND WIND. HAIL NEAR GOLF BALL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SEVERE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...CHANCES FOR SPOTTY
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FOR PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO IDENTIFY
ANY KIND OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH REGARD TO THE
TIMING...LOCATION...AND INTENSITY OF POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

HEINLEIN/SALTZMAN/HALBLAUB

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
604 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

NEZ039-040-092345-
GREELEY NE-VALLEY NE-
604 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GREELEY AND VALLEY COUNTIES UNTIL
645 PM CDT...

AT 602 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
DEVERRE...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF BURWELL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY IMPACT PORTIONS OF GREELEY
AND VALLEY COUNTIES AFTER 630 PM CDT. PEOPLE ACROSS GREELEY AND
VALLEY COUNTIES WILL NEED TO BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ORD...GREELEY...GREELEY CENTER...SCOTIA...ARCADIA...NORTH LOUP...
ELYRIA AND FORT HARTSUFF STATE PARK.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT
THURSDAY MORNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4145 9831 4141 9914 4174 9919 4174 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 331DEG 32KT 4189 9907

BRYANT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
629 PM CDT WED JUL 09 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0619 PM     HAIL             RAVENNA                 41.03N 98.91W
07/09/2014  E1.25 INCH       BUFFALO            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3 WINDOWS BROKEN FROM HAIL. TIME EST FM RADAR.

&&

HALBLAUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
632 PM CDT WED JUL 09 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0619 PM     HAIL             RAVENNA                 41.03N 98.91W
07/09/2014  E1.75 INCH       BUFFALO            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TIME EST FM RADAR.

&&

HALBLAUB