Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
724 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

AS SUSPECTED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS...AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS IN FACT
FIRED UP THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING A LULL IN THE ACTION DURING THE
LATE-MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM FOR ALL COUNTIES IN THE CWA EXCEPT
THE SOUTHERN-MOST 3 IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. PLEASE NOTE THAT IT
APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT COULD
LINGER BEYOND 9 PM...BUT THE CURRENT WATCH AT LEAST GETS US
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

WILL TOUCH ON THE HIGHLIGHTS OF THE NEXT 36 HOURS...

STARTING WITH THE HERE AND NOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THROUGH AT
LEAST 6-7 PM EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF SEVERE WEATHER TO CONTINUE
FOCUSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EVENTUALLY POSSIBLY WESTERN
CWA...AND BELIEVE THAT MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WILL
MAKE IT THROUGH AT LEAST 7-8 PM WITHOUT SEEING MUCH OF A
THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE THREAT. DESPITE A NOTICEABLE LACK OF
LARGE-SCALE FORCING...STORMS ARE FIRING UP IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY A RATHER WEAK CAP...CONSIDERABLE MIXED-LAYER
CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 3000+ J/KG...BUT ONLY WEAK-TO-MODEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20KT TO MAYBE 30KT TOPS. THIS WILL
YIELD MAINLY MULTICELL TO POSSIBLY BRIEF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES...WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT...WITH SOMEWHAT
LESSER THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AT LEAST INITIALLY...AND ALSO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES OWING TO
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP INTO THE 1.5 INCH RANGE. STORMS
SHOULD LARGELY FOCUS ACROSS THE NORTH AND POSSIBLY WEST DURING
THESE NEXT FEW HOURS DUE THE PROXIMITY TO WEAK NORTH-SOUTH AND
EAST-WEST SURFACE BOUNDARIES IN THAT AREA. THE MILLION DOLLAR
QUESTION ESPECIALLY FOR AROUND 7PM AND BEYOND IS WHETHER THE
INITIAL ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY ISOLATED AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS
EAST...OR WHETHER IT POTENTIALLY GROWS UPSCALE INTO MORE IN THE
WAY OF STORM CLUSTERS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A GREATER DAMAGING
WIND THREAT IF FORWARD-PROPAGATION SPEEDS UP. THIS SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR...BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH
UPSCALE GROWTH OCCURS. EVEN AS THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT STARTS TO
WANE THIS EVENING...AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS REMAINS
POSSIBLE ALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...AIDED BY FORCING WITHIN THE EXIT
REGION OF AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. FOR NOW HAVE
THE HIGHEST LATE-NIGHT POPS FOCUSED IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA.

FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...KEPT THE FORECAST THEME PRETTY
CLOSE TO PREVIOUS. THIS MEANS THAT HAVE...AT LEAST FOR
NOW...MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE PREDICATED ON WHETHER
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT. THEN HAVE BROUGHT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS TO NORTHWEST AREAS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
THEN GRADUALLY EXPANDING TO ALL AREAS SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT. AS
WITH TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE LEAVES ROOM TO BE
DESIRED...AND HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW LIKELY RANGE. SOME OF THE
LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THE OVERALL GREATEST STORM COVERAGE MAY HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT HOURS. AGAIN A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WILL BE PRESENT PER THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK...ESPECIALLY FOR
NEB ZONES...ALTHOUGH AGAIN FAIRLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE
A LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE. ASSUMING THAT THE
MAJORITY OF THE DAY IS STORM-FREE AND NO WORSE THAN PARTLY
CLOUDY...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF
TODAY...AND AM ADVERTISING A RANGE FROM UPPER 80S FAR NORTH TO MID
90S FAR SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH TONIGHT/SATURDAY NIGHT ARE
AIMED GENERALLY MID-UPPER 60S. BREEZES THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS
WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTIVELY-INFLUENCED OUTFLOW...WITH THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED
VALUES AROUND 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS FOCUSED DURING THE DAYTIME
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER SO WILL KEEP THIS SHORT.

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE CHANCES OF STORMS SUNDAY AND AGAIN LATE IN
THE WORK WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MAJOR FEATURES. A LONG WAVE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...THEN DRIFT OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK AND ON EAST OF
THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

GOOD CHANCE FOR STORMS ON SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. GOOD SHEAR AND INSTABILITY CURRENTLY FORECAST...SO COULD
BE SUPERCELLS AND PROBABLY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO ASSURE ALL THE
INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER AS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

AFTER THE FRONT BLOWS THROUGH...WE SETTLE INTO A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CHANCES OF STORMS LESS...MORE OF
THE SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING VARIETY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...SO
A WARMING TREND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH THE
RETURN OF THE MOISTURE AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR OVER TIME...STORMS
AFTER WEDNESDAY WILL AGAIN HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAF THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 716 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

BY FAR THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS INVOLVES
THE FIRST 3-6 HOURS...AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE AREA. HAVE CARRIED A TEMPO GROUP AT KGRI
AS STORMS ARE ALREADY IN THE AREA...BUT HAVE ONLY MAINTAINED A
VICINITY THUNDERSTORM (VCTS) FOR NOW AT KEAR WHERE A DIRECT IMPACT
TO THE TERMINAL IS LESS CERTAIN. COULD SEE SOME STORM POTENTIAL
LINGER BEYOND 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO OMIT FROM NOW.
OTHERWISE...THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STORM-FREE FOR NOW...WITH BETTER STORM POTENTIAL POSSIBLY MOVING
IN AGAIN DURING THE SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT PERIOD BEYOND THE
CURRENT VALID PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORM
INFLUENCES...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL FROM A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...WITH GUST POTENTIAL UP TO AROUND 20KT MAINLY
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH

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