Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
942 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

STILL TRYING TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE/SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BUT WANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT DESPITE
THE LACK OF A FORMAL STORM PREDICTION CENTER DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK
AREA...THEIR OUTLOOK IS CARRYING 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...AND THUS THE RISK
OF AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS IS MOST DEFINITELY NOT ZERO. AS
SUSPECTED AS A SLIM POSSIBILITY IN YESTERDAY AFTERNOONS
DISCUSSION...VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DID IN FACT
DEVELOP THIS MORNING IN/NEAR THE DAWSON COUNTY AREA...AND ARE NOW
SEEING ANOTHER ROUND OF NON-SEVERE CONVECTION FLARING UP JUST
BARELY OUTSIDE THE CWA IN CUSTER COUNTY...WHICH COULD TRACK
EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR CWA MAINLY NEAR/NORTH OF NEB HIGHWAY
92 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED MORNING
CONVECTION IS ESSENTIALLY TIED TO THE LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE
RETURN/THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE 850-700 MILLIBAR LAYER AS
INSTABILITY HAS RAPIDLY RETURNED NORTHWARD SINCE LAST NIGHT.

ABOUT ALL THAT CAN BE SAID WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT FOR
TODAY-TONIGHT IS:

- THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN STORM-FREE THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEFORE THEN
MAINLY CONFINED TO ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE AREA...OR
ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LEXINGTON-FULLERTON LINE. ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SMALL THROUGH EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON...AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM WITH LARGE HAIL
JUST CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.

- FROM MID-LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND TO INCLUDE MORE OF THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY NEBRASKA ZONES...AND ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN STORM
COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET TO BOOST POPS IN ANY GIVEN AREA
ABOVE THE 30 RANGE...COULD CERTAINLY SEE A DECENT CLUSTER OF
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE MAINLY MULTICELL STORMS AFFECT PARTS
OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY DURING PARTS OF THE 3PM-MIDNIGHT TIME
FRAME AS MORE SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG FAIRLY
SUBTLE BOUNDARIES...WHICH MOST LIKELY FOR OUR CONCERNS WILL BE A
GENERALLY NORTH-SOUTH TROUGH AXIS SETTING UP WITHIN/NEAR THE
WESTERN CWA TO THE NORTH OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AXIS GENERALLY
CENTERED OVER THE NEB/KS BORDER AREA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE WITH MIXED-LAYER CAPE PROGGED TO
ROUGHLY AROUND 2000 J/KG MODEL RANGE DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT OF A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE
ROBUST SEVERE THREAT...ONLY AVERAGING IN THE 20-30KT RANGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 541 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

ACCOUNTED FOR THE SUNRISE SURPRISE THUNDERSHOWERS THAT AFFECTED
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA...PROBABLY DUE TO A LOW-
AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION WITHIN ZONAL FLOW. THESE THUNDERSHOWERS
SHOULD NOT MAKE IT PAST MID-MORNING AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE
SUPPORT BY THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL AND WEAK FOR THE SHORT TERM. TODAY
SHOULD BE DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT MODELS INDICATE THAT A LOW-
AMPLITUDE RIPPLE OF ENERGY WILL ARRIVE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE WILL BE LOW...NOT TOPPING 25 KTS IN
THE 6KM AND BELOW LAYER. HOWEVER...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR QUITE A
BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. CAPE WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY BE GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG. IF STORMS FIRE UP IN THE
AFTERNOON...THEN STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD EASILY
DEVELOP. SINCE STORMS WOULD BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON INSTABILITY...THE
LATER ANY STORMS DEVELOP...THE LESS CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. THIS
DEPENDS ON WHEN ANY CAP MAY BREAK...AND IF THERE IS A DECENT FOCUS
FOR ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP. FOR NOW...MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST
AGREEMENT IN WHEN THERE COULD BE DEVELOPMENT. THIS APPEARS TO BE A
SITUATION WHERE COVERAGE OF ANY STORMS MAY BE LIMITED...SO THE
MENTION OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SEEMS SUFFICIENT. A
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET COULD KEEP STORMS GOING FOR AWHILE BEFORE
THE ANY STORMS HEAD EAST.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES WERE MADE. IT APPEARS THAT MOST
OF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER BEFORE THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LIES WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD HAS MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WITH LOW
AMPLITUDE/ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SRN CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVER CENTRAL
CANADA. THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO CONTINUE THE ACTIVE
PATTERN...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS.

DECIDED TO DRY OUT THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY...WITH THE
DISTURBANCE FROM THE NIGHT BEFORE EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL EVENTUALLY BE EMERGING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF PRECIP CHANCES.
DID KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THERE BEING ANYTHING BEFORE 00Z IS NOT HIGH. MANY OF THE MODELS SHOW
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE REGION THAT
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AIDED BY CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NOSE OF AN
INCREASED LLJ. BUT A FEW MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG A WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING E/NE
NEAR THE STATE LINE FROM SFC OVER WRN KS...SO WASNT CONFIDENT IN
REMOVING POPS COMPLETELY FROM THE AFTERNOON. THE BETTER CHANCES/POPS
REMAIN IN THE 00-12Z OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL HOW UPCOMING MODEL RUNS
TREND.

EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY SUNDAY
MORNING AS THIS LATEST DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST OUT OF THE
REGION...BUT ONCE AGAIN PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS SHOWING A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING OUT OF THE NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING STRONGER SFC COLD FRONT...WITH MODELS TIMING SHOWING
THE POTENTIAL OF THE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE AND SFC
FRONT.

WHILE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING MODEST/GOOD VALUES OF
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...THEY ALSO SHOW
THAT OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR NOT BEING THE HIGHEST...GENERALLY IN
THE 20-35KT RANGE. STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH BOTH DISTURBANCES...WITH HAIL/WINDS
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST...WITH PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTIES. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING
THE REGION...THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE
TIMING/LOCATION...SO AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR A WHILE...THAT DAY 4-7
PERIOD IS A LOW CONFIDENCE ONE...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...AT THIS POINT SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...AHEAD OF SUNDAYS COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. SUNDAY TEMPS HAVE
A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT...BUT ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH TEMPS AS WE GET INTO
MON THROUGH THUR GENERALLY NEAR 80 IN THE NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAF THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART...HOWEVER SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN...THEN ANY STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINAL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN

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