Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
617 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

...MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS CONTS AS WE MONITOR RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS...

WE MAY UPDATE THIS AFD WITH ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE DETAILS WHEN
CONVECTIVE INITIATION LOOKS IMMINENT.

BE WEATHER-AWARE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE A WAY TO OBTAIN
URGENT WX INFO...TV/RADIO/COMPUTER/PHONE/TABLETS ETC. HAVE A
STURDY PLACE TO SHELTER IF THREATENING WX APPROACHES.

ALOFT: THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN W
WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SWING THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS
TONIGHT. LOW AMPLITUDE ZONAL FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED IN ITS WAKE
TOMORROW.

SURFACE: A COOL FRONT SNAKED FROM THE NRN PLAINS S TO LOW PRES
OVER S-CNTRL NEB...THEN WSW ACROSS KS INTO CO. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
AND LOW WILL PROVIDE THE MESOSCALE FORCING TO INITIATE TSTMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON-EVE. THIS FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT. A SMALL HIGH PRES CENTER WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA TOMORROW.

THE SHORT-TERM FCST ORDINARILY ISSUED BETWEEN 3-4 PM IS NOW OUT.

THIS AFTERNOON: WE CONT TO MONITOR FOR SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
PLEASE FOLLOW ALL STATEMENTS/WATCHES/WARNINGS FROM THIS
OFFICE...AS WELL AS ANY MESO DISCUSSIONS FROM THE SPC.

SKYWARN: BE PREPARED FOR INITIAL ACTIVATION BETWEEN 3-6 PM.

OUR CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR INITIAL ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT RIGHT
ACROSS S-CNTRL NEB. THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE AND FORM LINE
SEGMENTS AND CLUSTERS. THEN WE WATCH OUT TO THE W WHERE AN MCS IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND TRACK ACROSS PART OF THE FCST AREA.

TONIGHT: TSTMS LIKELY ALTHOUGH NOT EVERY LOCATION WILL SEE THEM.
TSTMS SHOULD BE DONE BY 2 AM.

CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE TSTMS IS LOW CONFIDENCE. FREQUENTLY LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPS...BUT CURRENT MOS AND VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS
DONT HAVE IT.

SUN: AS LONG AS WE DONT START THE DAY WITH STRATUS...A VERY NICE
DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...SUNSHINE AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

INTERMITTENT CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM.

BY SUNDAY EVENING THE PROGGED UPPER AIR PATTERN SHOULD SHOW A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE
OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN CANADA. THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
VANCOUVER REGION IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE U.S. AND
AMPLIFY. THIS WILL PLACE OUR AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THE EARLY
AND MIDDLE PART OF THE WORKWEEK WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING THROUGH AND GIVING US A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. BY LATE
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY THE MAIN TROUGH OR LOW PRESSURE SHOULD PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.

STILL LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR LATE NIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE FIRST SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. 12Z NAM REALLY BLOWS UP SOME QPF
OVER THE AREA VERY EARLY ON MONDAY BUT SUSPECT CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUES AS IT APPEARS TO OVERDEVELOP THE VORTICITY BETWEEN 06 AND
12Z. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE...THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
TSTMS SHOULD BE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THAT TIME...SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER WESTERN NEB...OR IN THE VICINITY...WITH
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEB. IF THIS
POSITIONING PANS OUT...THIS WOULD PLACE THE HIGHER RISK FOR TSTMS
IN THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PARAMETERS DO LOOK HIGH ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY DAYTIME DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS ACTIVE BUT
THEN TSTM CHANCES PICK UP AGAIN WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
MAIN WAVE APPROACHES AND DRAGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT TROUGH THE
REGION. FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...QUIET
WEATHER SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING WORKING
IN.

AS FAR AS HIGH TEMPERATURES GO...THE AREA SHOULD BE A LITTLE
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...82-86...FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY AS WE
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NORTH.
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S SHOULD BE THE RANGE UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN
TEMPS COOL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT APPROACHES
KGRI TERMINAL. THERE COULD BE A THUNDERSTORM AT THE TERMINAL IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WINDS WILL TURN
TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AND INCREASE FOR A WHILE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ064-076-077-086-
     087.

KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ007-017>019.

&&

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...EWALD 235P
AVIATION...JCB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
247 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
152000-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
247 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WINDY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM YORK AND
NELSON NEBRASKA...TO STOCKTON KANSAS...UNTIL 7 PM. SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 30 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WERE
OCCURRING. PLEASE SEE THE ON- GOING WIND ADVISORY MESSAGE FOR
DETAILS.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.
THESE INITIAL STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL OF AT LEAST
2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO. A LULL MAY
OCCUR IN SOME AREAS THIS EVENING...WHILE OTHER AREAS MAY NOT SEE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP UNTIL MID-LATE EVENING. A SQUALL LINE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS LINE OF STORMS MAY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA LATER THIS EVENING...WITH THE
MAIN THREAT DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND
POSSIBLY HAIL TO AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES COULD ALSO OCCUR IN
SOME LOCATIONS...RESULTING IN MINOR FLOODING OF FIELDS...DITCHES
AND RURAL ROADS.

IN ADDITION ...MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE PLATTE
RIVER...UPSTREAM OF COZAD. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A
FEW OF THESE COULD BE SEVERE...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE TRI CITIES.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT...
WITH A BETTER CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS...DISPATCHERS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED INITIALLY IN THE 4
TO 6 PM TIME FRAME...AND WILL BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

HALBLAUB/EWALD

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