Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
235 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

...MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS CONTS AS WE MONITOR RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS...

WE MAY UPDATE THIS AFD WITH ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE DETAILS WHEN
CONVECTIVE INITIATION LOOKS IMMINENT.

BE WEATHER-AWARE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE A WAY TO OBTAIN
URGENT WX INFO...TV/RADIO/COMPUTER/PHONE/TABLETS ETC. HAVE A
STURDY PLACE TO SHELTER IF THREATENING WX APPROACHES.

ALOFT: THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN W
WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SWING THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS
TONIGHT. LOW AMPLITUDE ZONAL FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED IN ITS WAKE
TOMORROW.

SURFACE: A COOL FRONT SNAKED FROM THE NRN PLAINS S TO LOW PRES
OVER S-CNTRL NEB...THEN WSW ACROSS KS INTO CO. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
AND LOW WILL PROVIDE THE MESOSCALE FORCING TO INITIATE TSTMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON-EVE. THIS FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT. A SMALL HIGH PRES CENTER WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA TOMORROW.

THE SHORT-TERM FCST ORDINARILY ISSUED BETWEEN 3-4 PM IS NOW OUT.

THIS AFTERNOON: WE CONT TO MONITOR FOR SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
PLEASE FOLLOW ALL STATEMENTS/WATCHES/WARNINGS FROM THIS
OFFICE...AS WELL AS ANY MESO DISCUSSIONS FROM THE SPC.

SKYWARN: BE PREPARED FOR INITIAL ACTIVATION BETWEEN 3-6 PM.

OUR CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR INITIAL ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT RIGHT
ACROSS S-CNTRL NEB. THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE AND FORM LINE
SEGMENTS AND CLUSTERS. THEN WE WATCH OUT TO THE W WHERE AN MCS IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND TRACK ACROSS PART OF THE FCST AREA.

TONIGHT: TSTMS LIKELY ALTHOUGH NOT EVERY LOCATION WILL SEE THEM.
TSTMS SHOULD BE DONE BY 2 AM.

CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE TSTMS IS LOW CONFIDENCE. FREQUENTLY LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPS...BUT CURRENT MOS AND VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS
DONT HAVE IT.

SUN: AS LONG AS WE DONT START THE DAY WITH STRATUS...A VERY NICE
DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...SUNSHINE AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

INTERMITTENT CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM.

BY SUNDAY EVENING THE PROGGED UPPER AIR PATTERN SHOULD SHOW A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE
OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN CANADA. THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
VANCOUVER REGION IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE U.S. AND
AMPLIFY. THIS WILL PLACE OUR AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THE EARLY
AND MIDDLE PART OF THE WORKWEEK WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING THROUGH AND GIVING US A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. BY LATE
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY THE MAIN TROUGH OR LOW PRESSURE SHOULD PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.

STILL LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR LATE NIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE FIRST SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. 12Z NAM REALLY BLOWS UP SOME QPF
OVER THE AREA VERY EARLY ON MONDAY BUT SUSPECT CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUES AS IT APPEARS TO OVERDEVELOP THE VORTICITY BETWEEN 06 AND
12Z. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE...THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
TSTMS SHOULD BE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THAT TIME...SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER WESTERN NEB...OR IN THE VICINITY...WITH
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEB. IF THIS
POSITIONING PANS OUT...THIS WOULD PLACE THE HIGHER RISK FOR TSTMS
IN THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PARAMETERS DO LOOK HIGH ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY DAYTIME DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS ACTIVE BUT
THEN TSTM CHANCES PICK UP AGAIN WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
MAIN WAVE APPROACHES AND DRAGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT TROUGH THE
REGION. FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...QUIET
WEATHER SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING WORKING
IN.

AS FAR AS HIGH TEMPERATURES GO...THE AREA SHOULD BE A LITTLE
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...82-86...FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY AS WE
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NORTH.
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S SHOULD BE THE RANGE UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN
TEMPS COOL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z GRI TAF THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR SCT V BKN STRATOCU AROUND 4500 FT. ISOLATED
TSTMS DEVELOP 22Z-00Z WITH POCKETS OF MVFR OR IFR VSBYS. NO
GUARANTEES ON A DIRECT HIT AT GRI BUT HAIL UP TO 2" AND G50 KTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IF IT OCCURS. S WINDS WILL CONT GUSTING TO NEAR
30 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: PROBABLY A VFR BREAK BEFORE AN IFR SQUALL LINE OF TSTMS
MOVES THRU IN THE 02Z-06Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS A HIGHER PROBABILITY
THREAT AND WILL NEED FURTHER REFINEMENT IN LATER TAFS. COOL FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AROUND 06Z WITH WSHFT TO NW. SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR IFR
STRATUS CEILINGS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE TSTMS. CONFIDENCE: LOW

SUN THRU 18Z: ANY MVFR/IFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO A DECK
OF SCT CU. NW WINDS UNDER 10 KTS WILL SHIFT TO W. CONFIDENCE:
MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ064-076-077-086-
     087.

KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ007-017>019.

&&

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...EWALD 235P
AVIATION...HALBLAUB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
247 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
152000-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
247 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WINDY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM YORK AND
NELSON NEBRASKA...TO STOCKTON KANSAS...UNTIL 7 PM. SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 30 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WERE
OCCURRING. PLEASE SEE THE ON- GOING WIND ADVISORY MESSAGE FOR
DETAILS.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.
THESE INITIAL STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL OF AT LEAST
2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO. A LULL MAY
OCCUR IN SOME AREAS THIS EVENING...WHILE OTHER AREAS MAY NOT SEE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP UNTIL MID-LATE EVENING. A SQUALL LINE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS LINE OF STORMS MAY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA LATER THIS EVENING...WITH THE
MAIN THREAT DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND
POSSIBLY HAIL TO AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES COULD ALSO OCCUR IN
SOME LOCATIONS...RESULTING IN MINOR FLOODING OF FIELDS...DITCHES
AND RURAL ROADS.

IN ADDITION ...MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE PLATTE
RIVER...UPSTREAM OF COZAD. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A
FEW OF THESE COULD BE SEVERE...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE TRI CITIES.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT...
WITH A BETTER CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS...DISPATCHERS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED INITIALLY IN THE 4
TO 6 PM TIME FRAME...AND WILL BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

HALBLAUB/EWALD

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
615 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

NEZ041-047-048-062-142345-
HALL NE-NANCE NE-MERRICK NE-HOWARD NE-
615 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HOWARD...WESTERN
NANCE...NORTHWESTERN MERRICK AND NORTHEASTERN HALL COUNTIES UNTIL 645
PM CDT...

AT 613 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR CUSHING TO NEAR ST.
LIBORY AND GRAND ISLAND...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE CURRENTLY POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS...BUT THESE STORMS ARE INTENSIFYING AND NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GRAND ISLAND...CENTRAL CITY...FULLERTON...PALMER...CHAPMAN...
BELGRADE...CUSHING...ST. LIBORY AND ARCHER.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM CDT SUNDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4114 9795 4090 9835 4126 9842 4139 9830
      4139 9829 4141 9829 4148 9823 4148 9810
      4150 9809 4150 9804 4151 9797
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 211DEG 27KT 4128 9830 4105 9830

BRYANT