Red Flag Warning 15, NWS Hastings, NE

416 
WWUS83 KGID 070302
RFWGID

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1002 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...

.LOW VALUES OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY...A STRONG WIND AND DRY
VEGETATION WILL PROMOTE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ063-064-075>077-083>087-071200-
/O.CON.KGID.FW.W.0015.140507T1700Z-140508T0200Z/
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-HAMILTON-YORK-ADAMS-
CLAY-FILLMORE-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
1002 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 005...006...007...017...018...019...063...064...075...076...
077...083...084...085...086 AND 087...

* AFFECTED AREA...IN KANSAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 005 PHILLIPS... 
  FIRE WEATHER ZONE 006 SMITH...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 007 JEWELL...
  FIRE WEATHER ZONE 017 ROOKS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 018 OSBORNE 
  AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 019 MITCHELL. IN NEBRASKA...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 063 HAMILTON...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 064 YORK...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 075 ADAMS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 076 CLAY...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 077 FILLMORE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 083 HARLAN...FIRE 
  WEATHER ZONE 084 FRANKLIN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 085 WEBSTER...
  FIRE WEATHER ZONE 086 NUCKOLLS AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 087 
  THAYER.

* WIND...FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...SUSTAINED AT 20 TO NEAR 
  30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH. 

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...RAPID AND PERHAPS UNCONTROLLABLE FIRE GROWTH 
  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING 
  HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

399 
WWUS83 KGID 070928
RFWGID

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
428 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...

.LOW VALUES OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY...GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 
WINDS AND DRY VEGETATION WILL PROMOTE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

NEZ049-074-071700-
/O.EXA.KGID.FW.W.0015.140507T1700Z-140508T0200Z/
POLK-KEARNEY-
428 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
049 AND 074...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

* AFFECTED AREA...IN NEBRASKA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 049 POLK AND 
  FIRE WEATHER ZONE 074 KEARNEY.

* WIND...FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...SUSTAINED AT GENERALLY 15 TO
  25 MPH...WITH GUSTS COMMONLY 20 TO 30 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...FALLING TO GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND 20
  PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...RAPID AND PERHAPS UNCONTROLLABLE FIRE GROWTH
  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
  ALL POTENTIAL FIRE IGNITION SOURCES SHOULD BE USED WITH EXTREME
  CAUTION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ063-064-075>077-083>087-071700-
/O.CON.KGID.FW.W.0015.140507T1700Z-140508T0200Z/
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-HAMILTON-YORK-ADAMS-
CLAY-FILLMORE-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
428 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 005...006...007...017...018...019...063...064...075...076...
077...083...084...085...086 AND 087...

* AFFECTED AREA...IN KANSAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 005 PHILLIPS... 
  FIRE WEATHER ZONE 006 SMITH...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 007 JEWELL...
  FIRE WEATHER ZONE 017 ROOKS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 018 OSBORNE 
  AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 019 MITCHELL. IN NEBRASKA...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 063 HAMILTON...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 064 YORK...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 075 ADAMS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 076 CLAY...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 077 FILLMORE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 083 HARLAN...FIRE 
  WEATHER ZONE 084 FRANKLIN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 085 WEBSTER...
  FIRE WEATHER ZONE 086 NUCKOLLS AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 087 
  THAYER.

* WIND...FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...SUSTAINED AT GENERALLY 20 TO
  30 MPH...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH. THE HIGHEST SPEEDS IN
  THESE RANGES WILL RESIDE IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...FALLING TO GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 AND 20
  PERCENT. 

* IMPACTS...RAPID AND PERHAPS UNCONTROLLABLE FIRE GROWTH
  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
  ALL POTENTIAL FIRE IGNITION SOURCES SHOULD BE USED WITH EXTREME
  CAUTION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

PFANNKUCH

178 
WWUS83 KGID 071221
RFWGID

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
721 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...

.LOW VALUES OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY...GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND DRY VEGETATION WILL PROMOTE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ049-063-064-074>077-083>087-072100-
/O.CON.KGID.FW.W.0015.140507T1700Z-140508T0200Z/
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-POLK-HAMILTON-YORK-
KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-
THAYER-
721 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 005...006...007...017...018...019...049...063...064...074...
075...076...077...083...084...085...086 AND 087...

* AFFECTED AREA...IN KANSAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 005 PHILLIPS... 
  FIRE WEATHER ZONE 006 SMITH...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 007 JEWELL...
  FIRE WEATHER ZONE 017 ROOKS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 018 OSBORNE 
  AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 019 MITCHELL. IN NEBRASKA...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 049 POLK...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 063 HAMILTON...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 064 YORK...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 074 KEARNEY...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 075 ADAMS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 076 CLAY...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 077 FILLMORE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 083 HARLAN...FIRE 
  WEATHER ZONE 084 FRANKLIN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 085 WEBSTER...
  FIRE WEATHER ZONE 086 NUCKOLLS AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 087 
  THAYER.

* WIND...FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...SUSTAINED AT GENERALLY 15 TO
  30 MPH...WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 25 TO 45 MPH. THE HIGHEST SPEEDS
  IN THESE RANGES WILL RESIDE IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...FALLING TO GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 AND 20 
  PERCENT. 

* IMPACTS...RAPID AND PERHAPS UNCONTROLLABLE FIRE GROWTH 
  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS 
  EVENING. ALL POTENTIAL FIRE IGNITION SOURCES SHOULD BE USED 
  WITH EXTREME CAUTION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

PFANNKUCH

344 
WWUS83 KGID 071747
RFWGID

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1247 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ049-063-064-074>077-083>087-080200-
/O.CON.KGID.FW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-140508T0200Z/
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-POLK-HAMILTON-YORK-
KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-
THAYER-
1247 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 005...
006...007...017...018...019...049...063...064...074...075...076...
077...083...084...085...086 AND 087...


* AFFECTED AREA...IN KANSAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 005 PHILLIPS... 
  FIRE WEATHER ZONE 006 SMITH...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 007 JEWELL...
  FIRE WEATHER ZONE 017 ROOKS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 018 OSBORNE 
  AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 019 MITCHELL. IN NEBRASKA...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 049 POLK...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 063 HAMILTON...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 064 YORK...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 074 KEARNEY...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 075 ADAMS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 076 CLAY...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 077 FILLMORE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 083 HARLAN...FIRE 
  WEATHER ZONE 084 FRANKLIN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 085 WEBSTER...
  FIRE WEATHER ZONE 086 NUCKOLLS AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 087 
  THAYER.

* WIND...FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 20 TO AROUND 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF
  35 TO PERHAPS 45 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE.

* IMPACTS...RAPID AND PERHAPS UNCONTROLLABLE FIRE GROWTH
  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

BRYANT

947 
WWUS83 KGID 071806
RFWGID

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
106 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ049-063-064-074>077-083>087-080200-
/O.CON.KGID.FW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-140508T0200Z/
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-POLK-HAMILTON-YORK-
KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-
THAYER-
106 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 005...
006...007...017...018...019...049...063...064...074...075...076...
077...083...084...085...086 AND 087...


* AFFECTED AREA...IN KANSAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 005 PHILLIPS...
  FIRE WEATHER ZONE 006 SMITH...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 007 JEWELL...
  FIRE WEATHER ZONE 017 ROOKS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 018 OSBORNE AND
  FIRE WEATHER ZONE 019 MITCHELL. IN NEBRASKA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE
  049 POLK...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 063 HAMILTON...FIRE WEATHER ZONE
  064 YORK...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 074 KEARNEY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 075
  ADAMS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 076 CLAY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 077
  FILLMORE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 083 HARLAN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 084
  FRANKLIN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 085 WEBSTER... FIRE WEATHER ZONE
  086 NUCKOLLS AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 087 THAYER.

* WIND...FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 20 TO NEAR 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS
  APPROACHING 40 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE.

* IMPACTS...RAPID AND PERHAPS UNCONTROLLABLE FIRE GROWTH
  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

BRYANT

885 
WWUS83 KGID 080155
RFWGID

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
855 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014


KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ049-063-064-074>077-083>087-080300-
/O.EXP.KGID.FW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-140508T0200Z/
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-POLK-HAMILTON-YORK-
KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-
THAYER-
855 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 005...006...
007...017...018...019...049...063...064...074...075...076...077...
083...084...085...086 AND 087...

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
105 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014

JUST SENT A MINOR UPDATE TO THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAINLY TO GET THE
TEMP/DEWPOINT CURVES OFF TO A BETTER START. IN SHORT...LOW TEMPS
ENDED UP EVEN A FEW MORE DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED A FEW HOURS
AGO...AS IT NOW LOOKS MOST PLACES ARE BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 43-48
RANGE...AND ORD EVEN MANAGED TO TAG THE UPPER 30S. A SMATTERING OF
VERY HIGH-BASED RADAR RETURNS ARE WORKING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA...AND A LOOK OUT THE WINDOW TO THE NORTHWEST
EVEN REVEALS SOME "JELLY-FISH" LIKE VIRGA FALLING FROM HIGH BASED
CUMULUS. ODDS ARE THAT EVEN ROGUE SPRINKLES ARE HAVING A HARD TIME
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND...AND THUS WILL KEEP THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
PRECIP-FREE DESPITE THIS WEAK ACTIVITY THAT IS LIKELY BEING DRIVEN
BY A SUBTLE /MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014

AS THINGS CURRENTLY STAND...THESE NEXT 24 HOURS THROUGH SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY REMAIN VOID OF ANY FORMAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
MENTION. HOWEVER...THATS NOT TO SAY THAT THERE IS LITERALLY ZERO
RISK OF PRECIP IN ALL AREAS...AS THE FORECAST FOR ESPECIALLY THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA AT LEAST CARRIES SOME "SILENT"
10 PERCENT POPS MAINLY FOR TONIGHT AS A FEW SPOTS COULD AT LEAST
FLIRT WITH SEEING SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. AS FOR OTHER FORECAST
ELEMENTS/CHALLENGES...THE PRESENCE OF THE EAST-WEST PRIMARY
FRONTAL ZONE OVER KS AND THE ASSOCIATED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
NORTH IT LIFTS TODAY MAKES TODAY/S TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT FORECAST
AN ABOVE-AVERAGE DIFFICULTY AFFAIR...AND AM STATING UP FRONT THAT
SOME PLACES COULD EASILY MISS FORECAST HIGHS BY 5+ DEGREES IN THIS
KIND OF SETUP...AND WITH THE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD BETWEEN
MODELS/GUIDANCE SETS. IN ADDITION...AT LEAST THE FAR SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF THE CWA COULD AT LEAST FLIRT WITH NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY/WIND PARAMETERS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...AND ALTHOUGH NO FIRE HEADLINES ARE ENVISIONED...THIS
NEAR-CRITICAL THREAT IS DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN A SEPARATE
SECTION BELOW.

TURNING TO THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 09Z/4AM...ANOTHER TRANQUIL
EARLY MORNING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...AS SKIES ARE A
MIX OF CLEARING AND PASSING BATCHES OF MAINLY THIN/HIGH CIRRUS.
UNLESS SOMETHING RATHER UNEXPECTED STILL DEVELOPS YET THIS
MORNING...ITS BECOME INCREASINGLY APPARENT THAT THE PATCHY FOG
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS NOT GOING TO
PAN OUT AND IT HAS BEEN PULLED FROM THE FORECAST...AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/DEWPOINT VALUES HAVE NOT RISEN AS HIGH AS THOUGHT 12-24
HOURS AGO...NOT TO MENTION THAT EASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA CONTINUE TO HOLD UP IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE
KEEPING AT LEAST LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MIXING IN PLACE. IN THE BIG
PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
GRADUALLY CONTINUES TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...ALTHOUGH THE
REGION STILL LIES WELL-DOWNSTREAM FROM AN AMPLIFIED PRIMARY TROUGH
AXIS/CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CHURNING ALONG THE CAL/NV
BORDER AREA. AT THE SURFACE...EASTERLY BREEZES PERSIST ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA...EMANATING FROM A LARGE HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES...AND TO THE NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY EAST-WEST
FRONT DRAPED ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER...AND EXTENDING
EASTWARD FROM A ROUGHLY 1000 MILLIBAR LOW OVER THE OK PANHANDLE.
LOW TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE ALREADY REACHED/OR SHOULD
EVENTUALLY BOTTOM OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE 44-51 RANGE ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA...WHICH IS GENERALLY A TOUCH COOLER THAN
EXPECTED 12-24 HOURS AGO.

FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY THROUGH 00Z/7PM...AS MENTIONED AT THE
TOP THE FORECAST OFFICIALLY REMAINS VOID OF ANY RAIN MENTION. IN
THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...VERY WEAK/SUBTLE RIPPLES WILL PASS OVER THE
AREA...BUT THE PARENT LARGE-SCALE LOW WILL ONLY MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
EAST-SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN CAL/NV AREA BY SUNSET. AT THE
SURFACE...A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS IS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
EAST-WEST FRONT ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER TO START SHIFTING NORTH
TOWARD/INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION WHICH
IS STILL SUBJECT TO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW FAR NORTH
DOES IT LIFT...AND THUS HOW MUCH OF THE CWA REMAINS IN PREVAILING
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES VERSUS MORE LEGITIMATE SOUTHERLY
BREEZES TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AS USUAL...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...BUT LEANS TOWARD THE
06Z NAM WHICH ARGUABLY BRINGS THE FRONT UP TO NEAR OR JUST NORTH
OF THE STATE LINE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH ALSO FITS PRETTY
WELL WITH THE HRRR MODEL SOLUTION. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND THE
RAP13 APPEAR TO BE OUTLIERS FOR THEIR OWN OPPOSITE REASONS...WITH
THE GFS APPEARING TOO STUBBORN TO LIFT THE FRONT NORTH AND THUS
KEEPING TEMPERATURES TOO COOL ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE THE RAP13
APPEARS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE BLASTING THE FRONT NORTH...AND THUS
HAS CONSIDERABLY HOTTER TEMPS/LOWER DEWPOINTS IN MUCH OF THE CWA
THAN THE MIDDLE-GROUND. THE NET RESULT IS THAT HIGHS WERE NUDGED
UP A FEW DEGREES WITHIN THE NORTHERN CWA FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AND NUDGED DOWN SLIGHTLY IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS.
ALTHOUGH SUBJECT TO AT LEAST MODEST ERRORS...THIS YIELDS A RANGE
FROM MID 70S FAR NORTH...AROUND 80 IN THE TRI-CITIES...MID-UPPER
80S ALONG MUCH OF THE STATE LINE AREA...AND LOW 90S ESPECIALLY
INTO THE OSBORNE/ROOKS COUNTY AREA. AS TESTAMENT TO THE TEMP
CHALLENGES TODAY...THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS GENERALLY 5-7 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE 00Z GFS MAV GUIDANCE...BUT SOLIDLY 5-7 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE VERY WARM/HOT RAP13 WHICH JUST LOOKS OVERDONE. AS
FOR PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY...THEY ARE ESSENTIALLY NIL AS
FAIRLY PRONOUNCED CAPPING EVIDENT IN NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOULD TEAM WITH LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING TO KEEP THINGS
QUIET...DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIKELY-OVERDONE 0-1KM MIXED
LAYER CAPE UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG DEPICTED BY THE SAME NAM12.
SKIES TODAY SHOULD AVERAGE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DEPENDING
ON THE DEGREE OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...AND SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD AVERAGE UNDER 15 MPH FOR THE MOST PART...WITH ANY GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 MPH MOST FAVORED IN NORTHEASTERN AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH
THAT THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN STORM-FREE...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON ESPECIALLY THE FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN FRINGES IN NEBRASKA
ZONES JUST IN CASE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...LARGE-SCALE FORCING
REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE AS THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ONLY SLOWLY
SLIDES INTO THE UT/NM CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
VAST MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WITHIN THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST
REGION IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS BOTH WEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. THE WESTERN AREA WILL MAINLY BE ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAKER CAPPING/GREATER CONVERGENCE IN AN UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW REGIME OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/WESTERN NEB AREA...WHILE
THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST MAINLY FOCUSED INTO NORTHERN
IA/POSSIBLY NORTHEAST NEB SHOULD PRIMARILY DEVELOP LATER IN THE
NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG/NORTH OF THE NOSE OF A
DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. WHILE MOST MODEL
QPF/SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SUPPORTS THIS NOTION OF THE CWA
REMAINING STORM-FREE THROUGH THE NIGHT...IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL...ESPECIALLY IF THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM IS ONTO SOMETHING BY
DEVELOPING ISOLATED STORMS OVER WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST NEB AROUND
00Z AND RIDING THEM NORTHEAST AS THEY WEAKEN...POSSIBLY CLIPPING
THE FRINGES OF THE CWA. ASSUMING THIS DOES NOT OCCUR...AM ONCE
AGAIN DISREGARDING THE GFS MODEL-GENERATED DRIZZLE SIGNATURE OVER
MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AS IT AGAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER-
DOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THAT BEING SAID...ONCE AGAIN FELT AT
LEAST A PATCHY FOG MENTION WAS JUSTIFIED ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THAT MOISTURE SHOULD
BE A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING
MAJOR FOG ISSUES...BUT WITH MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAT IS LIKELY TO ORIENT ITSELF MORE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...COULD ENVISION AT LEAST
SOME LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT ON THE COOL SIDE. LOW TEMPS WERE
CHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES MILDER THAN THOSE OF THIS MORNING WITH MOST
AREAS BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 53-59.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT TRACKING A CLOSED 500 MB LOW
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO THE REGION. IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT THE RESPONSIBLE
UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY WEDNESDAY...AS THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS GETS PUSHED NORTHWARD. WITH VERY DRY AND WARM AIR BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...EXPECT NEAR TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO BE
REACHED ACROSS GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA...AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS. WHILE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PLUMMET BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS NEARLY THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE THE
FURTHER NORTH YOU GO...AND LIMITED THE WATCH TO AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM FAIRMONT NEBRASKA TO LONG
ISLAND KANSAS.

OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
TRI CITIES...AND INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME QUESTION ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST...BUT A VERY STRONG CAP IN PLACE MAY PREVENT AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM...THE FOCUS OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AFTER SUNSET WILL BE EAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA...AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE GENERALLY TO
OUR NORTHWEST...MEANING LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY MAY BE OBSERVED
LOCALLY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT A NOTICEABLY COOLER DAY...AS 850MB TEMPS DROP
NEARLY 15C ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS FRONT. THIS SHOULD KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO OR JUST BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS...FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE TRI CITIES...TO THE MID 70S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COULD SEE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE...BUT ONCE AGAIN...FOCUS IS
OUTSIDE OF THE THE CWA AND MAY SEE LITTLE ACTIVITY...WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO BE
ON THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN FRINGES OF THE LOCAL AREA.

THEREAFTER...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...BUT EXPECT
FAIRLY SEASONABLY TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ALBEIT
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST 16 HOURS OF THE
TAF...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AND A POSSIBILITY OF IFR
CONDITIONS 10-14Z...AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS TO FINISH THE TAF
PERIOD.

VERY LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER WILL BE NOTED AT GRI THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY TONIGHT HOWEVER...STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE PORTIONS OF THE REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE A CLOSE
CALL AT GRI AS THE BULK OF THIS STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SITUATE
ITSELF NORTHWEST OF GRI...BUT MULTIPLE SETS OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS STRATUS WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH
SOUTHEAST TO IMPACT GRI. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH A CEILING AT
1500FT AGL IN THE TAF 10-14Z. SOME GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS A
CEILING CLOSER TO 500FT AGL WILL BE REALIZED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT SUCH CONDITIONS AND WILL DEFER TO
FUTURE SHIFTS TO CONSIDER THE POSSIBLE INSERTION OF IFR CONDITIONS
INTO THE TAF. INCREASING DIABATIC HEATING AND A RESULTANT INCREASE
IN BOUNDARY LAYER HEIGHT AND MIXING SHOULD HELP THE STRATUS AT GRI
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...BUT THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT
SHOULD ULTIMATELY BRING AN END TO THE STRATUS AT GRI BY 14Z
WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE WIND WILL START THE TAF PERIOD FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SUSTAINED AT AROUND 08KTS. THE SURFACE WIND IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT VARIABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
WARM FRONT BEGINS CLEARING THE AREA...AND THEN BECOME SUSTAINED
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10KTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
WARM FRONT BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IN FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE SURFACE WIND REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT BUT MOISTURE ADVECTION
INCREASES SOMEWHAT AS THE WARM FRONT NEARS/CLEARS THE AREA. WENT
AHEAD WITH 5SM 10-14Z...BUT THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS
AN IFR VISIBILITY COULD BE REALIZED. JUST LIKE THE IFR
CEILING...CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT SUCH
CONDITIONS INTO THE TAF AND WILL DEFER TO FUTURE SHIFTS TO
CONSIDER POSSIBLE INSERTION OF AN IFR VISIBILITY INTO THE TAF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014

FOCUSING SOLELY ON TODAY/S FIRE WEATHER SITUATION IN THIS
PARAGRAPH...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PORTRAYS
A CLOSE CALL WITH NEAR-CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN THE FAR-SOUTHERN
CWA...SPECIFICALLY WITHIN PARTS OF ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...DO NOT CURRENTLY FORESEE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO CRITICAL TERRITORY. AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS...THE
AFOREMENTIONED FAR SOUTHERN 3 COUNTIES CONTAIN THE ONLY PORTION OF
THE CWA WHERE THERE IS A FORECAST OVERLAP OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPPING 20-25 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH...PRIMARILY
BETWEEN 3PM- 8PM. BECAUSE ITS MAINLY ONLY THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF
THESE 3 COUNTIES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MEET NEAR-CRITICAL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY THRESHOLDS...AND THAT SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
ONLY TOP OUT AROUND 15 MPH/GUST 20 MPH...WHICH IS 5 MPH SHORT OF
CRITICAL SPEEDS...WILL EVEN OMIT ANY MENTION OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER FROM THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT. HOWEVER...DAY
SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THINGS PLAY
OUT...ESPECIALLY IF THE LAST FEW HOURLY RUNS OF THE RAP13 ARE ONTO
ANYTHING. AS OUTLINED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE...THE
RAP13 HAS BEEN LARGELY DISREGARDED AS AN OUTLIER TODAY WITH ITS
AGGRESSIVE SURGING OF THE VERY HOT/DRY AIRMASS CONSIDERABLY
FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CWA THAN SEVERAL OTHER MODELS/GUIDANCE
SETS. HOWEVER...IF IN FACT ACTUAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY OBS TREND
WORSE THAN EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AND START TO HALFWAY-RESEMBLE
WHAT THE RAP13 PORTRAYS...A CONSIDERABLY LARGER PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN CWA...MAYBE EVEN UP INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...COULD
GET INTO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TERRITORY. FORTUNATELY...EVEN
IF RH VALUES END UP A BIT WORSE THAN EXPECTED TODAY...FEEL
REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY IN CHECK AND
HELP MITIGATE THE SOUTHERN-CWA FIRE DANGER.

FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...PLEASE REFER TO THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NEZ076-077-085>087.

KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...BRYANT
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
506 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
071200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
506 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. IN GENERAL...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SPORADIC WITH WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

PFANNKUCH/ROSSI