High Wind Warning 1, NWS Hastings, NE

Jewell County, KS, Mitchell County, KS, Osborne County, KS, Phillips County, KS, Rooks County, KS, Smith County, KS, Adams County, NE, Buffalo County, NE, Clay County, NE, Dawson County, NE, Fillmore County, NE, Franklin County, NE, Furnas County, NE, Gosper County, NE, Greeley County, NE, Hall County, NE, Hamilton County, NE, Harlan County, NE, Howard County, NE, Kearney County, NE, Merrick County, NE, Nance County, NE, Nuckolls County, NE, Phelps County, NE, Polk County, NE, Sherman County, NE, Thayer County, NE, Valley County, NE, Webster County, NE, York County, NE

029 
WWUS73 KGID 160309 AAA
NPWGID

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
909 PM CST WED JAN 15 2014

...THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE ONE OF THE WINDIEST DAYS OF THE YEAR...

NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-161200-
/O.CON.KGID.HW.W.0001.140116T1400Z-140117T0200Z/
VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-
HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-
FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ORD...FULLERTON...LOUP CITY...
ST. PAUL...CENTRAL CITY...OSCEOLA...LEXINGTON...KEARNEY...
GRAND ISLAND...AURORA...YORK...ELWOOD...HOLDREGE...MINDEN...
HASTINGS...CLAY CENTER...GENEVA...BEAVER CITY...ALMA...FRANKLIN...
RED CLOUD...SUPERIOR...NELSON...HEBRON
909 PM CST WED JAN 15 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM CST
THURSDAY...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM CST
THURSDAY. 

* TIMING...A NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY THURSDAY 
  MORNING...PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DECREASING 
  IN INTENSITY HEADING INTO THURSDAY EVENING. 

* WINDS...SUSTAINED FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 35 TO 45 MPH... 
  WITH GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE 50 TO 60 MPH RANGE. 

* IMPACTS...UNSECURED OUTDOOR OBJECTS WILL BE BLOWN AROUND AND
  DRIVING MAY BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

$$

KSZ005>007-017>019-161200-
/O.CON.KGID.HW.A.0001.140116T1400Z-140117T0200Z/
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PHILLIPSBURG...SMITH CENTER...MANKATO...
PLAINVILLE...STOCKTON...OSBORNE...BELOIT
909 PM CST WED JAN 15 2014

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM CST THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM CST THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. 

* TIMING...A NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY THURSDAY 
  MORNING...PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DECREASING 
  IN INTENSITY HEADING INTO THURSDAY EVENING. 

* WINDS...SUSTAINED FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 35 TO 45 MPH... 
  WITH GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE 50 TO 60 MPH RANGE. 

* IMPACTS...UNSECURED OUTDOOR OBJECTS WILL BE BLOWN AROUND AND
  DRIVING MAY BE DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH...OR GUSTS OF
58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

$$

732 
WWUS73 KGID 161007
NPWGID

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
407 AM CST THU JAN 16 2014

...VERY INTENSE NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY...

KSZ005>007-017>019-161830-
/O.UPG.KGID.HW.A.0001.140116T1400Z-140117T0200Z/
/O.EXA.KGID.HW.W.0001.140116T1400Z-140117T0200Z/
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PHILLIPSBURG...SMITH CENTER...MANKATO...
PLAINVILLE...STOCKTON...OSBORNE...BELOIT
407 AM CST THU JAN 16 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CST
THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CST
THIS EVENING. THIS REPLACES THE HIGH WIND WATCH...WHICH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN EARLY THIS
  MORNING...THE MOST CONCENTRATED COVERAGE OF VERY STRONG WINDS
  WILL FOCUS BETWEEN THE MID-MORNING AND EARLY EVENING
  HOURS...BEFORE SPEEDS SLOWLY SUBSIDE BELOW WARNING LEVELS.

* WINDS...SUSTAINED FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 35 TO 45 MPH... WITH 
  GUSTS GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50 TO 60 MPH RANGE. 

* IMPACTS...OUTDOOR OBJECTS SHOULD BE SECURED SO THAT THEY ARE 
  NOT BLOWN ABOUT BY THE STRONG WINDS. DRIVING MAY BE DIFFICULT 
  DUE TO THE INTENSE WINDS AND SUDDEN WIND GUSTS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

$$

NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-161830-
/O.CON.KGID.HW.W.0001.140116T1400Z-140117T0200Z/
VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-
HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-
FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ORD...FULLERTON...LOUP CITY...
ST. PAUL...CENTRAL CITY...OSCEOLA...LEXINGTON...KEARNEY...
GRAND ISLAND...AURORA...YORK...ELWOOD...HOLDREGE...MINDEN...
HASTINGS...CLAY CENTER...GENEVA...BEAVER CITY...ALMA...FRANKLIN...
RED CLOUD...SUPERIOR...NELSON...HEBRON
407 AM CST THU JAN 16 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO
8 PM CST THIS EVENING...


* TIMING...ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS
  PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THE MOST CONCENTRATED
  COVERAGE OF VERY STRONG WINDS WILL FOCUS BETWEEN THE MID-
  MORNING AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BEFORE SPEEDS SLOWLY SUBSIDE
  BELOW WARNING LEVELS.

* WINDS...SUSTAINED FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 35 TO 45 MPH... WITH 
  GUSTS GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50 TO 60 MPH RANGE. 

* IMPACTS...OUTDOOR OBJECTS SHOULD BE SECURED SO THAT THEY ARE 
  NOT BLOWN ABOUT BY THE STRONG WINDS. DRIVING MAY BE DIFFICULT 
  DUE TO THE INTENSE WINDS AND SUDDEN WIND GUSTS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

$$

PFANNKUCH

986 
WWUS73 KGID 161237
NPWGID

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
637 AM CST THU JAN 16 2014

...VERY INTENSE NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY...

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
162045-
/O.CON.KGID.HW.W.0001.140116T1400Z-140117T0200Z/
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PHILLIPSBURG...SMITH CENTER...MANKATO...
PLAINVILLE...STOCKTON...OSBORNE...BELOIT...ORD...FULLERTON...
LOUP CITY...ST. PAUL...CENTRAL CITY...OSCEOLA...LEXINGTON...
KEARNEY...GRAND ISLAND...AURORA...YORK...ELWOOD...HOLDREGE...
MINDEN...HASTINGS...CLAY CENTER...GENEVA...BEAVER CITY...ALMA...
FRANKLIN...RED CLOUD...SUPERIOR...NELSON...HEBRON
637 AM CST THU JAN 16 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS
EVENING...


* TIMING...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS MORNING...AND PEAK
  IN INTENSITY BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
  BEFORE SPEEDS SLOWLY SUBSIDE BELOW WARNING LEVELS.

* WINDS...SUSTAINED FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 35 TO 45 MPH... WITH 
  GUSTS GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50 TO 60 MPH RANGE. 

* IMPACTS...OUTDOOR OBJECTS SHOULD BE SECURED SO THAT THEY ARE 
  NOT BLOWN ABOUT BY THE STRONG WINDS. DRIVING MAY BE DIFFICULT 
  DUE TO THE INTENSE WINDS AND SUDDEN WIND GUSTS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

$$

PFANNKUCH

682 
WWUS73 KGID 161757
NPWGID

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1157 AM CST THU JAN 16 2014

...VERY INTENSE NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY...

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
170200-
/O.CON.KGID.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140117T0200Z/
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PHILLIPSBURG...SMITH CENTER...MANKATO...
PLAINVILLE...STOCKTON...OSBORNE...BELOIT...ORD...FULLERTON...
LOUP CITY...ST. PAUL...CENTRAL CITY...OSCEOLA...LEXINGTON...
KEARNEY...GRAND ISLAND...AURORA...YORK...ELWOOD...HOLDREGE...
MINDEN...HASTINGS...CLAY CENTER...GENEVA...BEAVER CITY...ALMA...
FRANKLIN...RED CLOUD...SUPERIOR...NELSON...HEBRON
1157 AM CST THU JAN 16 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS
EVENING. 

* TIMING...PEAK WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 

* WINDS...SUSTAINED FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 35 TO 45 MPH... WITH 
  GUSTS GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50 TO 60 MPH RANGE. 

* IMPACTS...OUTDOOR OBJECTS SHOULD BE SECURED SO THAT THEY ARE 
  NOT BLOWN ABOUT BY THE STRONG WINDS. DRIVING MAY BE DIFFICULT 
  DUE TO THE INTENSE WINDS AND SUDDEN WIND GUSTS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

$$

HEINLEIN

734 
WWUS73 KGID 170154
NPWGID

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
754 PM CST THU JAN 16 2014

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
170300-
/O.EXP.KGID.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140117T0200Z/
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PHILLIPSBURG...SMITH CENTER...MANKATO...
PLAINVILLE...STOCKTON...OSBORNE...BELOIT...ORD...FULLERTON...
LOUP CITY...ST. PAUL...CENTRAL CITY...OSCEOLA...LEXINGTON...
KEARNEY...GRAND ISLAND...AURORA...YORK...ELWOOD...HOLDREGE...
MINDEN...HASTINGS...CLAY CENTER...GENEVA...BEAVER CITY...ALMA...
FRANKLIN...RED CLOUD...SUPERIOR...NELSON...HEBRON
754 PM CST THU JAN 16 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM CST THIS EVENING...

THE WIND ACROSS THE AREA HAS SUBSTANTIALLY DECREASED IN INTENSITY
THROUGH THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...A TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE HIGH WIND WARNING
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM CST.

$$

BRYANT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1159 AM CST WED JAN 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CST WED JAN 15 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE DEWPOINTS BY A FEW DEGREES TODAY.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM CST WED JAN 15 2014

UPDATED FORECAST WILL BE OUT SHORTLY TO ADDRESS VERY SHORT-TERM
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAIN CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS WAS TO
BEEF UP SKY COVER PERCENTAGES INTO DOWNRIGHT-CLOUDY RANGE ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RATHER EXPANSIVE MID-
DECK THAT HAS NOW OVERTAKEN MOST OF THE AREA. AS THESE CLOUDS HAVE
MOVED IN...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED AT LEAST FEW DEGREES IN
RESPONSE...MAKING HOURLY TEMP TRENDS TRICKY...BUT LATEST UPDATE
SHOULD HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON TRENDS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE LATEST RAP13 RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS SUGGEST THAT AT
LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIKELY PREVAIL TODAY ESPECIALLY WITHIN
ABOUT THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...WITH WESTERN AREAS MORE FAVORED
TO SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF/PARTIAL CLEARING MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE CLOUD TRENDS COULD EASILY PLAY A 4+ DEGREE FACTOR IN HIGHS
TODAY AS DETAILED IN MAIN DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CST WED JAN 15 2014

COMPARED TO THE STRONG WINDS OF YESTERDAY AND THE EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY...WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY/TONIGHT ARE
COMPARABLY SMALL. PRECIP-WISE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AM ONLY
CARRYING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES IN NORTHEAST ZONES THIS
EVENING. FROM A VERY BASIC PERSPECTIVE...TODAYS MAIN THEME IS A
NICE WARM-UP BACK TO 10-15 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE
PRESENCE OF MODEST BREEZES. DIGGING A BIT DEEPER HOWEVER...THE
TEMP FORECAST ISNT EXACTLY STRAIGHTFORWARD GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW PREVALENT CLOUDS WILL BE. REGARDING FIRE DANGER...TODAY DOES
NOT APPEAR TO CARRY THE MAGNITUDE OF THREAT THAT THURSDAY
COULD...BUT SOME LIMITED AREAS OF NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY AND THIS IS COVERED MORE THOROUGHLY IN THE SEPARATE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

STARTING OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...10Z/4AM OBJECTIVE SURFACE
ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA OWING TO THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK/BROAD RIDGE AXIS...ALTHOUGH
VERY WEAK PRESSURE FALLS WERE STARTING TO TAKE PLACE IN RESPONSE
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTH
OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. LOCALLY...PRE-DAWN BREEZES RANGED FROM
NEAR-CALM TO WESTERLY AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 8 MPH. LOOKING ALOFT
TO THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHORT
TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMED SHARP NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...FLOWING BETWEEN A RATHER AMPLIFIED TROUGH AXIS CENTERED
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH...AND AN EXPANSIVE
RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. WITHIN THIS NORTHERLY
FLOW...A STOUT 140+KT UPPER JET STREAK EVIDENT AT 300MB WAS IN THE
PROCESS OF SHIFTING JUST EAST OF THE CWA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING MID LEVEL TROUGH. LIFT UNDER THIS JET STREAK HAS LIKELY
BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR PROMOTING A NARROW BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WHICH EARLIER-ON
MIGHT HAVE EVEN PRODUCED SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES PER WEAK RADAR
RETURNS. SPEAKING OF CLOUDS...11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALED CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH
A FAIRLY DENSE COVERAGE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NEB/KS
WAS GRADUALLY STARTING TO PUSH EAST OVER WESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THAT
PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS HAVE DOMINATED THE EARLY-
MORNING SCENE SO FAR...IT TURNED OUT THAT AN EARLIER-ISSUED UPDATE
TO NUDGE UP LOW TEMPS WAS LIKELY THE WRONG MOVE FOR MOST
AREAS...AND ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND COULD BE OBSERVED FROM
WEST-TO-EAST BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE AS CLOUDS INCREASE...IT
CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE OR HAS ALREADY
SEEN LOWS BOTTOM OUT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 11-20 DEGREES...COLDEST IN
THE FAR EAST.

GETTING INTO THE DAYTIME DETAILS...THE BIG PICTURE ALOFT INVOLVES
THE CWA GENERALLY REMAINING IN BETWEEN DISTURBANCES...AS THE
AMPLIFIED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEPART EASTWARD..WHILE
THE CORE OF THE NEXT PRIMARY UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ONLY
REACHES THE ND/NORTHERN MN AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE AND NEAR-SURFACE LOWER LEVELS...WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE IN FULL FORCE TODAY...AS 850 MILLIBAR TEMPS OVER THE CWA WILL
START OUT THE DAY GENERALLY -10C IN THE EAST/-5C IN THE WEST...BUT
END THE DAY GENERALLY +3C IN THE EAST/+5-6C IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE
EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST-EAST TODAY
IS ACTUALLY A RATHER WELL-DEFINED TROUGH AXIS TRAILING SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWARD FROM A RATHER DEEP...ROUGHLY 982 MILLIBAR
LOW THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS FROM THIS TROUGH AXIS
MIGRATING ACROSS THE AREA...BREEZES TODAY WILL INCREASE BY LATE
MORNING AND AVERAGE FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AROUND 15 MPH TO POSSIBLY 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTS COMMONLY 20 TO AROUND 25 MPH. AS THE TROUGH AXIS STARTS TO
BISECT THE CWA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...WINDS ACROSS ESPECIALLY
THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE CWA WILL TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY CLASSIC BATTLE BETWEEN
FAVORABLE WARMING ON WESTERLY WINDS VERSUS WHAT COULD BE A FAIRLY
DENSE COVERAGE OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALONG WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS FROM
MODELS SUCH AS THE 06Z NAM/RAP13...QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS MAINLY IN
THE 700-500MB LEVEL SHOULD SPILL SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE CWA
TODAY. ALTHOUGH DID NOT GET TOO CARRIED AWAY WITH SKY COVER
PERCENTAGES...THEY WERE RAISED VERSUS PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
POTENTIALLY NOT ENOUGH...AS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA NOW LOOKS TO
AVERAGE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH
THIS COULD BE INTERSPERSED WITH AT LEAST BRIEF PERIODS OF MORE
SUNSHINE. THIS EXPECTATION OF FAIRLY DECENT CLOUD COVER BRINGS
HIGH TEMPS SOMEWHAT INTO QUESTION...AND AS A RESULT OPTED TO NOT
GO QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARM-UP AS THE RAW SHORT-TERM
SOLUTIONS OF MODELS SUCH AS RAP13/HRRR WOULD SUGGEST. THAT BEING
SAID...A BLEND OF 00Z MET/MAV GUIDANCE LOOKED A BIT TOO COOL...SO
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY A COMPROMISE OF THE EXTREMES
WHICH YIELDED LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING FOR A
RANGE FROM UPPER 40S EAST...NEAR-50 CENTRAL AND MID 50S WEST-
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST. PLEASE NOTE THAT IF SUN ENDS UP BEING MORE
PREVALENT THAN EXPECTED TODAY...THESE HIGHS COULD EASILY BE 2-4
DEGREES TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY WEST OF HWY 281. AS FOR PRECIP-
CHANCES...DESPITE THE MID CLOUDS...LACK OF FORCING/DEEP SATURATION
WILL MORE THAN LIKELY KEEP THE CWA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
00Z/6PM...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE PLENTY OF HINTS THAT A NARROW BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES COULD AT LEAST COME RELATIVELY CLOSE TO
BRUSHING THE FAR NORTHERN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON AS IT TRANSLATES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OUT OF SD INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

TURNING TO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THE BEGINNING STAGES OF
WHAT WILL BE A VERY WINDY THURSDAY BEGINS TO SHOW ITS
HAND...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE NIGHT. IN THE BIG PICTURE
ALOFT...THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DIVE SOUTHWARD IN BROAD FORM OVER SEVERAL STATES INCLUDING
NEB/IA...BUT WHILE BEING ANCHORED BY A CLOSED LOW EVIDENT AT 500MB
PROGGED TO BE CENTERED NEAR/JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY
12Z/6AM. AS THIS OCCURS...STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS
WILL SPREAD SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER THE CWA AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON...WITH 850MB SPEEDS AFTER MIDNIGHT INCREASING TO 40-60KT FROM
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH NOCTURNAL MIXING WILL CERTAINLY NOT
BE DEEP ENOUGH TO REALIZE THESE VERY STRONG WINDS...A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL
NONETHELESS RESULT IN INCREASING SURFACE WINDS. PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT...SUSTAINED WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ONLY AVERAGE
10-15 MPH...THEN INCREASING TO CLOSER TO 20 MPH LATE IN THE NIGHT
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80.
UNLIKE WHAT HAPPENED A FEW NIGHTS AGO WHEN THE LEADING EDGE OF
LATE NIGHT GUSTS SURGED IN AT 45+ MPH...THIS SETUP DOES NOT APPEAR
TO FEATURE A SIGNIFICANT NOCTURNAL PRESSURE-RISE MAXIMUM...SO AM
NOT EXPECTING A REPEAT OF THAT EVENT. IN OTHER WORDS...ANY
ADVISORY/WARNING CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS SHOULD SAFELY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE THURSDAY DAYTIME PERIOD COVERED BELOW. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE DIVING IN ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE PARENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUDS FROM
NORTH-SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT...OPTED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES TO THE EVENING HOURS FOR ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST 1/4 OF
THE CWA...AS VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDING THE RAP13 AND 00Z 4KM WRF-
NMM DEPICT THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BAND OF LIGHT
PRECIP POSSIBLY BRUSHING THROUGH THIS AREA DURING THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE CWA WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT DRY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...OBVIOUSLY THE GRADUALLY INCREASING WINDS AND
RESULTANT MIXING WILL RESULT IN STEADYING IF NOT MODEST RISES
DURING THE NIGHT...BUT WITH PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT BREEZES EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...WANTED TO ALLOW
SOME ROOM FOR SOME DECENT DROP OFFS. AS A RESULT...SHAVED ABOUT
2-3 DEGREES OFF PREVIOUS FORECAST LOW TEMPS...BUT STILL KEPT THEM
ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE A STRAIGHT-UP BLEND OF 00Z MET/MAV
GUIDANCE. THIS YIELDS FAIRLY UNIFORM LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
20S CWA-WIDE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST WED JAN 15 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE BIGGEST WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE
A STRONG NORTHWEST WIND ON THURSDAY FOR WHICH WE HAVE A HIGH WIND
WATCH IN EFFECT. THURSDAY COULD BE THE WINDIEST NON THUNDERSTORM DAY
OF THE YEAR IN SOME PLACES. IN ADDITION...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH
WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES ON THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN EXTREME FIRE
DANGER FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THUS SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES HAVE BEEN PLACED IN A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...THE NEXT 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL RACE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
AROUND DAYBREAK AND WELL INTO IOWA BY AFTERNOON. THE 00Z ECWMF
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB OVER IOWA WHILE THE 00Z
GFS AND NAM INDICATE A STRONG BUT OPEN 500 MB WAVE. THE BIG DEAL FOR
US WILL BE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BETWEEN A 991-995 MB LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A 1030-1033 MB
HIGH NEAR RAPID CITY. THE MAV AND MET WIND GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MET GUIDANCE INDICATING STRONGER WINDS
FROM THE GUIDANCE VALUES AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND THE MAV GUIDANCE
VALUES COMING DOWN FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL HIGHER THAN THE MET.
BASED PURELY ON THE MODEL GUIDANCE VALUES THE BEST CHANCE AT
REACHING THE SUSTAINED WIND CRITERIA OF 40 MPH FOR A HIGH WIND
WARNING WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF A BEAVER CITY...TO HASTINGS...TO
YORK LINE. HOWEVER...STEEP ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT MIXING THROUGH 775 MB OR MAYBE EVEN 750 MB PARTICULARLY
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES...WHICH WILL ALLOW STRONG WIND GUSTS TO
PROPAGATE TO THE SFC. THEREFORE THE BEST CHANCE OF VERIFYING THE
HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE WITH THE EXTREME GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR
GREATER. IF AN AREA WERE TO BE DOWNGRADED TO A HIGH END WIND
ADVISORY IT WOULD LIKELY BE OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FROM AROUND BELOIT
TO HEBRON. MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN ONE MIGHT
NORMALLY EXPECT BEHIND A CANADIAN CLIPPER...AND ALTHOUGH COOLER THAN
WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...BUT THE WIND WILL STILL
MAKE IT FEEL RATHER UNPLEASANT. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HIGH WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES. PLEASE SEE
THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE FIRE
DANGER.

FRIDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND THE WIND WILL BECOME
LIGHT. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO INDICATE WARMER
CONDITIONS...AND THUS HAVE INCREASED HIGHS BY SEVERAL DEGREES AND MAY
NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH AS WE ARE STILL BELOW MOST GUIDANCE VALUES WITH
OUR HIGHS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS AND OUR HIGHS ARE A BIT CONSERVATIVE AS WE
COULD BE EVEN WARMER. WILL CALL FOR AT LEAST 40S IF NOT EVEN A FEW
50S ON SATURDAY...AND THEN SOLID 50S ON SUNDAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A COUPLE OF 60 DEGREE HIGHS ON SUNDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. SHOULD BE A GREAT WEEKEND FOR JANUARY
WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FAIRLY MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...BUT MIGHT
LOSE A FEW DEGREES OFF OF SUNDAY HIGHS BEHIND A WEAK SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. TUESDAY COULD BE A BIT
COLDER THAN MONDAY AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN. THE MAIN
FEATURES REMAIN THE SAME WITH A BIG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY SO NOT EXPECTING OVERALL PATTERN TO CHANGE MUCH
FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST WED JAN 15 2014

BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE VERY STRONG WIND DEVELOPING BY LATE
THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...INTRODUCING STRONGER WIND THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALOFT. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
INCREASE...MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL OCCUR TO THE SURFACE AND WILL
GIVE US WIND SPEEDS CLOSE TO HIGH WIND CRITERION BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...BASICALLY SOME MID-LEVEL SKY COVER TODAY WITH
PERHAPS A BIT OF A GUSTINESS TO THE WIND THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT WE COULD
HAVE A BIT MORE CUMULUS SKY COVER FOR THURSDAY...BUT THIS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST WED JAN 15 2014

ALTHOUGH FIRE DANGER TODAY DOES NOT APPEAR TO CARRY THE SIGNIFICANCE
THAT THURSDAY LIKELY WILL ACROSS PARTS/MOST OF THE CWA (SEE BELOW
FOR FURTHER THURSDAY FIRE DISCUSSION)...TODAY CERTAINLY FEATURES A
NON-ZERO THREAT GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF VERY DRY VEGETATION.
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO DROP NO LOWER THAN THE
25-35 PERCENT RANGE...THUS REMAINING ABOVE THE 20 PERCENT CRITICAL
THRESHOLD. HOWEVER...EVEN NON-CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
SUCH AS THESE COULD SUPPORT SOME FIRE THREAT IN THE PRESENCE OF
FORECAST 20-25 MPH WIND GUSTS. FURTHERMORE...AT LEAST THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA...MAINLY FURNAS/PHILLIPS/ROOKS
COUNTY AREA...IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN TO 25 PERCENT RH OR
SLIGHTLY LOWER...WHICH COMBINED WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 MPH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT SUPPORTS NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER. CONSIDERED ADDING THIS NEAR-CRITICAL MENTION TO THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT...BUT GIVEN THAT THE NEAR-
CRITICAL OVERLAP OF WIND/RELATIVE HUMIDITY AFFECTS SUCH A SMALL
PORTION OF THE CWA AND FOR ONLY ABOUT A 2-HOUR TIME WINDOW...OPTED
AGAINST IT AND WILL LET THURSDAY FIRE CONCERNS CLAIM THE SPOTLIGHT
SO TO SPEAK.

THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES WILL
CREATE A NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF RH AND WIND WILL COME TOGETHER
MOST EFFECTIVELY TO ENHANCE FIRE DANGER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES. THE WIND WILL BE THE MOST EXTREME ELEMENT WITH WIND
GUSTS OF AROUND 30 MPH GREATER THAN WHAT IS MINIMALLY NECESSARY TO
WARRANT FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. HOWEVER...THE RH VALUES WILL BE MORE
MARGINAL AND WILL NOT REACH OUR LOCALLY DEFINED CRITERIA OF 20
PERCENT IN ALL AREAS. GIVEN THE EXTREME NATURE OF THE WINDS WILL
FUDGE WITH THE RH NUMBERS A BIT AND STILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FOR LOCATIONS WHERE THE RH VALUES WILL AT LEAST BOTTOM OUT IN THE
LOWER 20S. FIRE DANGER WILL STILL BE AT LEAST NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS
IN OUR EASTERN ZONES EVEN IF THE RH VALUES DO NOT FALL QUITE LOW
ENOUGH FOR A HEADLINE. THIS IS NOT A GOOD DAY FOR FIRES ANYWHERE IN
OUR FORECAST AREA AS THEY COULD QUICKLY BECOME OUT OF CONTROL GIVEN
THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NEZ060-072-073-082>084.

KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH/WESELY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
448 AM CST WED JAN 15 2014

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
161200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
448 AM CST WED JAN 15 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HIGH WIND WATCH PRODUCT FOR DETAILS.

NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE MOST DANGEROUS FIRE
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON
TO FRANKLIN IN NEBRASKA...TO MANKATO KANSAS WHERE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IS IN EFFECT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER WATCH
PRODUCT FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

WESELY