Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Glasgow, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
254 PM MDT SUN AUG 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA AND CURRENTLY ARE
MOVING INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE AND ALONG THE MONTANA-NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO INITIATE
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MENTIONED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS FOR THOSE AREAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING
AS THE CURRENT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND BEFORE THE NEXT
ONE APPROACHES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE
STRONGER...AND BY FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND ADVECTING PACIFIC
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS NEMONT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE FOR WETTING RAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE...AT THIS POINT A FEW AREAS MAY RECEIVE UP TO 0.50 INCH OF
MUCH NEED RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS IN THE AREA. AEC

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

NORTHEAST MONTANA BEGINS THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH AN
OPEN TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE REGION TO BE REPLACED BY A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES OF THE TROUGH
AND CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WEDNESDAY COULD HAVE NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...OR SLIGHTLY COOLER DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.
WITH THE MANY WEAK DISTURBANCES AFFECTING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE
RIDGE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. NO NOTABLE WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED. BOTH THE EC
AND GFS SHOW A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES THAT COULD INCREASE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING AROUND FRIDAY. MADE FEW
CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HOT HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN HOLD OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG RANGE. MOST OF THE TIME A RIDGE
WILL RIDE UP OUT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
AND ACT AS A BLOCKING PATTEN FROM SHORTWAVE JETS. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE UP UNDER THE RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE
AND SHOULD PROVIDE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING ALMOST EVERY
PERIOD OF THE LONG RANGE. A LEE SIDE MOUNTAIN TROUGH WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS MOST AFTERNOONS WITH WITH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
CAUSING OVERNIGHT SHOWERS. A FEW NOTICEABLE CHANGES FROM THIS
PATTERN DO STAND OUT.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLOW AND
BRING A SLIGHT BURST OF COLD AIR AND ELEVATED POPS TO CHANCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE TO THE WEST IS
EXPECTED TO BE DE-AMPLIFIED BRIEFLY BY A LARGE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL HIT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A GLANCING FRONT/SHORTWAVE AND IF TIMED
RIGHT MAY BE ABLE TO SET OFF SOME SHOWERS WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL.
AT THIS TIME COLD AIR DOES NOT LOOK TO MAINTAIN RESIDENCY AS THE
WESTERN RIDGE REBOUNDS RATHER FAST POST PASSAGE. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG GUSTY WIND...BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND LARGE HAIL...MAINLY AFFECTING KOLF AND KSDY.

AREA WINDS: EAST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 15 KTS.
SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
345 PM MDT SUN AUG 3 2014

MTZ016-017-022-032245-
GARFIELD-PHILLIPS-VALLEY-
345 PM MDT SUN AUG 3 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GLASGOW HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHERN VALLEY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...
  EASTERN PHILLIPS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...
  NORTHEASTERN GARFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...

UNTIL 445 PM MDT.

AT 339 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTH OF HINSDALE...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
   TAMPICO...
   GLASGOW...
   FORT PECK...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4849 10617 4806 10636 4806 10640 4802 10643
      4796 10641 4772 10651 4803 10740 4835 10737
      4856 10712
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 292DEG 22KT 4822 10702

TEMPLER
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
439 PM MDT SUN AUG 3 2014

MTZ017-022-023-032345-
GARFIELD-MCCONE-VALLEY-
439 PM MDT SUN AUG 3 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GLASGOW HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN VALLEY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...
  NORTHWESTERN MCCONE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...
  NORTHEASTERN GARFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...

UNTIL 545 PM MDT.

AT 436 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF DUCK CREEK REC AREA...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
   DUCK CREEK FISHING AND  DUCK CREEK REC AREA...
   FORT PECK AND  NASHUA...
   ROCK CREEK REC AREA...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4812 10584 4801 10584 4802 10581 4802 10579
      4805 10578 4805 10577 4803 10576 4803 10573
      4736 10623 4786 10700 4816 10693 4825 10672
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 299DEG 25KT 4804 10661

TEMPLER
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
541 PM MDT SUN AUG 3 2014

MTZ022-023-025-040045-
DAWSON-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
541 PM MDT SUN AUG 3 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GLASGOW HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  MCCONE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...
  NORTHEASTERN GARFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...
  NORTHWESTERN DAWSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...

UNTIL 645 PM MDT.

AT 536 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF ROCK CREEK REC AREA...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
  RURAL AREAS OF WESTERN MCCONE COUNTY...
  RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN GARFIELD COUNTY...
  RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL MCCONE COUNTY...
  RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN DAWSON COUNTY...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4710 10590 4780 10649 4804 10626 4803 10623
      4803 10613 4802 10612 4801 10614 4801 10610
      4803 10609 4803 10606 4801 10603 4801 10601
      4803 10602 4800 10592 4801 10590 4791 10519
      4787 10520 4787 10524 4780 10523
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 308DEG 33KT 4783 10620

TEMPLER
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

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