Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Glasgow, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
356 AM MDT TUE JUN 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
LARGE SCALE STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AROUND
THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY.

UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN LIFT TOWARD SASKATCHEWAN
ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...INVERTED/LEE TROF STRETCHING
FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA TO CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING
NORTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION ON THE SOUTHEAST WINDS. DEEP MOISTURE AND PWS OF AROUND AN
INCH SUPPORT THE INCLUSION OF HEAVY RAIN MENTION. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH DECENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA AND
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO NORTH DAKOTA...MODELS SUGGESTING DRY
SLOT DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN MONTANA. NOT ANTICIPATING A
COMPLETELY DRY DAY HOWEVER WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST ON THURSDAY WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS
CONTINUING AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM. EBERT

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THIS SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL FINALLY BE
PUSHING NORTHEAST OUT OF OUR CWA...BUT WHAT FORM IT TAKES AS IT
LEAVES IS UNCERTAIN AS THE GFS WANTS TO KEEP IT AS ONE LARGE
CLOSED LOW AND THE EC WANTS SPLIT IT INTO TWO SEPARATE SMALLER LOW
CENTERS. LATE THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY...A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MONTANA.

REGARDLESS OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
TAKES OVER EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY KEEPING PRECIPITATION
AWAY FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA FOR THE MOST PART.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...MODELS SHOWING A BROAD AREA OF BENIGN
LARGE-SCALE FLOW...BUT STILL WITH ENOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT
WARRANTED A GFS/EC BLEND WITH CLIMO POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE DOES NOT
SEEM TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS SET TO IMPACT OUR REGION
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BMICKELSON

&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS: AN UPPER LOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE
DIRECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY.
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SLOW THE MOVEMENT OF THESE
STORMS. BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION IS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR BECOMING MVFR AFT 18Z WITH VCTS AT MOST
LOCATIONS. IF A STORM HAPPENS TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER A TAF
SITE...LIFR CONDITIONS OR WORSE WOULD BE LIKELY UNDER HEAVY
RAINFALL. EXPECT AMENDMENTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WINDS: EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND COULD
BECOME VARIABLE AND GUSTIER NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS. BMICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

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