Wind Advisory 11, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Bell County, TX, Bosque County, TX, Collin County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Coryell County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Denton County, TX, Eastland County, TX, Ellis County, TX, Erath County, TX, Falls County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Hamilton County, TX, Hill County, TX, Hood County, TX, Jack County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Lampasas County, TX, Limestone County, TX, McLennan County, TX, Milam County, TX, Mills County, TX, Montague County, TX, Navarro County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Parker County, TX, Robertson County, TX, Rockwall County, TX, Somervell County, TX, Stephens County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Wise County, TX, Young County, TX

907 
WWUS74 KFWD 131650
NPWFWD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1150 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 8 PM...

.DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN OKLAHOMA WILL RESULT IN A
STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH WIND ALONG AND WEST OF A SHERMAN...
CORSICANA...TO HEARNE LINE. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO
30 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH. WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT.

TXZ091>093-100>104-115>120-129>134-141>146-156>161-174-175-140100-
/O.CON.KFWD.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-140414T0100Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-STEPHENS-
PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-ROCKWALL-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-
SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-ELLIS-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-MILAM-
ROBERTSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...GRAHAM...OLNEY...JACKSBORO...DECATUR...
BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...THE COLONY...
PLANO...BRECKENRIDGE...MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...BRIAR...
FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...CISCO...EASTLAND...
RANGER...GORMAN...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...
OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...
ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS...COMANCHE...DE LEON...
GOLDTHWAITE...HAMILTON...HICO...CLIFTON...MERIDIAN...
VALLEY MILLS...HILLSBORO...CORSICANA...LAMPASAS...COPPERAS COVE...
GATESVILLE...KILLEEN...TEMPLE...FORT HOOD...WACO...MARLIN...
MEXIA...GROESBECK...CAMERON...ROCKDALE...HEARNE...FRANKLIN...
CALVERT
1150 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* LOCATION...ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM SHERMAN...TO 
  CORSICANA TO HEARNE. 

* WINDS...SOUTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH.

* TIMING...ONGOING THROUGH 8 PM.

* IMPACTS...DRIVING MAY BE DIFFICULT FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. 
  BOATING ON OPEN WATERS MAY BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT. 
  LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS THAT ARE NOT PROPERLY SECURED ARE LIKELY 
  TO BE BLOWN AROUND. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 20 TO
30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING
DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. BOATERS SHOULD
USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN VENTURING ONTO AREA LAKES.  RESIDENTS MAY
WISH TO TAKE ACTION TO SECURE TRASH CANS...LAWN FURNITURE...AND
OTHER LIGHTWEIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS THAT MAY BE BLOWN AROUND IN THE
STRONG WINDS.

&&

$$

626 
WWUS74 KFWD 140020
NPWFWD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
720 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

...WIND ADVISORY CANCELED...

.SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THE REST OF
THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA LATER
THIS EVENING WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST HALF
BY MIDNIGHT AND TO THE REST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK. AT TIMES
THESE NORTH WINDS MAY AVERAGE 20 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35
MPH. HOWEVER...WE DO NOT EXPECT THE STRONG WINDS TO LAST VERY
LONG. ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY IS LIKELY FOR MONDAY AS STRONG NORTH
WINDS INCREASE AND PERSIST ALL DAY.

TXZ091>093-100>104-115>120-129>134-141>146-156>161-174-175-140130-
/O.CAN.KFWD.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-140414T0100Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-STEPHENS-
PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-ROCKWALL-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-
SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-ELLIS-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-MILAM-
ROBERTSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...GRAHAM...OLNEY...JACKSBORO...DECATUR...
BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...THE COLONY...
PLANO...BRECKENRIDGE...MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...BRIAR...
FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...CISCO...EASTLAND...
RANGER...GORMAN...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...
OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...
ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS...COMANCHE...DE LEON...
GOLDTHWAITE...HAMILTON...HICO...CLIFTON...MERIDIAN...
VALLEY MILLS...HILLSBORO...CORSICANA...LAMPASAS...COPPERAS COVE...
GATESVILLE...KILLEEN...TEMPLE...FORT HOOD...WACO...MARLIN...
MEXIA...GROESBECK...CAMERON...ROCKDALE...HEARNE...FRANKLIN...
CALVERT
720 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS CANCELED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 



$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
244 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS AS A SHORT WAVE TRANSLATES QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE THE
LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN THROUGH THE MORNING DUE TO FALLING
PRECIP. NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
100 KNOT JET WHICH IS A PREFERRED QUADRANT FOR UPWARD FORCING. WE
EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER. HOWEVER....RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO
EVAPORATION. EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PRECIP AS A
40+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET DRAWS UP GULF MOISTURE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST SHORT WAVE. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME A
SURFACE DRYLINE IS PROGGED TO MIX EASTWARD AND MAY PROVIDE AN
ADDITIONAL SOURCE OF LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW LIMITING
FACTORS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE DRYLINE WILL BE (1) A PERIOD
OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FIRST SHORT WAVE.
(2) A LAYER (CAP) OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL EXIST FOR SOME IF NOT ALL
OF THE AFTERNOON. (3) THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
WHICH WILL HINDER SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION. (4) CONVERGENCE
ON THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE WEAK SINCE THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER OKLAHOMA. BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS KEEP
PRECIPITATION ESSENTIALLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE EVENT AND NEVER
DEVELOP SURFACE BASED CONVECTION ON THE DRY LINE TODAY.

THE HIGH RES SOLUTIONS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ON THE DRYLINE. WE FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THE CAP
WILL BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STORM COVERAGE SHOULD
STILL BE LIMITED DUE TO A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON THE
DRYLINE. IF STORMS DO BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THEY
WILL HAVE A GOOD POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH SURFACE BASED
CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND MORE THAN ADEQUATE SHEAR TO
SUPPORT LONG LIVED UPDRAFTS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. OF COURSE ANY
BACKING NEAR THE DRYLINE WILL ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE
BEST TORNADIC POTENTIAL WILL BE NORTH OF THE RED RIVER NEAR THE
TRIPLE POINT. WITH ALL THAT BEING SAID...WE WILL KEEP POPS THIS
AFTERNOON AT 50 PERCENT OR LESS DUE TO THE LIMITING FACTORS
MENTIONED ABOVE.

ALONG WITH THE RAIN/STORM CHANCES TODAY...IT WILL BE RATHER WINDY
DUE TO A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS
OF NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY SEE THE STRONGEST WIND WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS AND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS.
THEREFORE...WE WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM UNTIL 8 PM.
THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH CRITERIA ALSO.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS DURING THE
EVENING. LIFT ALONG THE FRONT COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM
THE SECOND SHORT WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE BEST STORM CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE THE
STRONGEST.

OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING...MUCH DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS A
1036 MB HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. A LATE SEASON FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
MONDAY/TUESDAY MORNING AS SKIES CLEAR AND THE WIND BECOMES LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE RURAL AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. AT THE VERY
LEAST...MOST AREAS WILL SEE A FROST AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN ON WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WEST. SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY THE COLD
FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN/STORMS NEXT SUNDAY.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81  49  59  36  64 /  50  50  10   5   0
WACO, TX              79  54  62  36  64 /  40  40  10   5   0
PARIS, TX             76  49  55  31  61 /  50  60  10  10   0
DENTON, TX            81  44  57  32  63 /  50  50  10   5   0
MCKINNEY, TX          79  48  58  33  61 /  50  50  10   5   0
DALLAS, TX            81  51  59  37  65 /  50  50  10   5   0
TERRELL, TX           79  51  59  33  63 /  50  50  10  10   0
CORSICANA, TX         79  54  61  35  64 /  40  40  20  10   0
TEMPLE, TX            80  56  65  34  64 /  40  30  20   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     84  45  60  30  66 /  50  40  10   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ091>093-100>104-115>120-129>134-141>146-156>161-174-175.

&&

84/79

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
934 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-140245-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
934 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF A BONHAM TO CAMERON
LINE BEFORE DAYBREAK. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
SMALL HAIL ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS...HOWEVER A FEW TORNADOES
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

STRONG SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY...
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

FROST IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM LAMPASAS TO HILLSBORO TO ATHENS...EXCLUDING THE INTERIOR OF
THE DFW METROPLEX. MAKE PLANS TO PROTECT PLANTS.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.