Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
641 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

DFW AIRPORTS...WE CONTINUE TRACKING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
THE DFW METRO CURRENTLY. CURRENT SPEED ESTIMATES INDICATE MAIN
LINE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AIRPORTS BY 01Z OR 8 PM...THEN VCSH AND
MVFR CIGS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
PASSING ACROSS THE REGION. SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE AS WELL. POST CONVECTIVE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE GUSTY OUT
OF THE WEST 15-30 KTS...BEFORE PREVAILING FROM NW UNDER 10 KTS.
AFTER THE FROPA AROUND MIDNIGHT...WILL SEE GUSTY NW WINDS AROUND
15 KTS...BECOMING SUSTAINED 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35
KTS AT TIMES. CIGS WILL RISE WITH THE FRONTAL INVERSION TO 025
AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY...GOING INTO LOW VFR BETWEEN 030-040 FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY SUNDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT ANY -RA OUT OF THE EXTENDED
PART OF THE TAF.

WACO...SIMILAR TRENDS TO DFW WITH TRACKING CONVECTION OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST. WILL HAVE A 2 HRS VCTS PERIOD MID-LATE EVENING WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTIES ON HOW MUCH COVERAGE GETS INTO THE CENTRAL
TEXAS AREA. OTHERWISE...CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS DICTATE A MORE
POSITIVE CEILING FORECAST IN VFR BEFORE FROPA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AFTER FROPA...WILL HOLD TO MVFR CIGS THOUGH SOME GUIDANCES AND
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING IFR POSSIBLE BY MORNING. HAVE A HARD TIME
WITH THAT CONSIDERING THE FRONTAL INVERSION WILL BE SLOWLY
DEEPENING WITH TIME. OTHERWISE...SOUTH FLOW AROUND 10 KTS WILL
SHIFT WSW BY LATE EVENING...THEN GO NW 10-15 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STRONG CAA WILL DRIVE GUSTY NW WINDS 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35
KTS BY MID MORNING AND AFTER...AS CIGS RISE INTO LOW VFR 030-040
BY MIDDAY AND AFTER SUNDAY.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014/
A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT WHILE A SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY DROPS SOUTH
INTO FAR WEST TEXAS/NORTHERN MEXICO. LARGE SCALE LIFT COUPLED WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER HAS
LIMITED LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION...THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAIN UNSTABLE AND THERE IS ENOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
TO SUSTAIN SOME UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...SOME STORMS MAY BRIEFLY
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE
WINDS ARE BACKED AT MANY LOCATIONS CURRENTLY...THE WIND FIELDS ARE
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL ABOVE THE SURFACE. THEREFORE...THE TORNADO
THREAT IS FAIRLY LOW...BUT NOT ZERO.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
EXITING SHORT WAVE. ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO THE EAST...A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL FORCING...LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE A CLOUDY...COOL AND WINDY DAY WITH NEAR STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES. A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL
INCREASE BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 40
MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION.
THEREFORE...A WIND ADVISORY WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. SINCE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN HIGH AND THE GROUND WILL BE MOIST FROM TODAY/S
RAINFALL...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL.

EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE SHOWING A POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINTER
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN ZONES NEAR THE CORE
OF THE UPPER LOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE 12Z ECMWF...KEEP THE
UPPER LOW WELL WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...WE WILL NOT
MENTION ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT AND WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE WHICH
WILL LEAD TO OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOCATIONS GENERALLY
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL TO FALL
BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.

TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL WARM STEADILY UNDER ABUNDANT SUN.
HOWEVER...A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL NOT BEGIN TO TAKE
SHAPE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WHEN A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A WARM
AND BREEZY DAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 70S TO THE
LOWER 80S.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/
WEDNESDAY BUT WILL ONLY BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR. THE
DRIER AIR WILL ONLY BE TEMPORARY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
QUICKLY EAST AND ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM ON THE WEEKEND. THE PASSAGE OF
THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SEND A WEAK COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS. LIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  51  33  62  46 /  80  30  10   5   0
WACO, TX              49  54  34  65  44 /  60  30  20   5   0
PARIS, TX             52  55  32  57  39 /  90  30  10  10   5
DENTON, TX            48  48  31  61  43 /  80  30  10   5   0
MCKINNEY, TX          48  50  30  58  39 /  80  30  10   5   0
DALLAS, TX            50  52  33  62  44 /  80  30  10   5   0
TERRELL, TX           50  56  33  59  43 /  80  30  10   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         53  58  34  62  44 /  80  30  10   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            48  54  35  65  42 /  60  30  20   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     45  49  31  67  40 /  60  30  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

05/79

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
257 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-161200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
257 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NORTH WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A WIND ADVISORY
BEING ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE REGION.

82/JLD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
417 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

TXZ116-117-130-152145-
ERATH TX-PALO PINTO TX-PARKER TX-
417 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN ERATH COUNTY
  SOUTHEASTERN PALO PINTO COUNTY
  WESTERN PARKER COUNTY

AT 417 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF STEPHENVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE COOL...GORDON...GRAFORD...
MINERAL WELLS...HUCKABAY...MORGAN MILL...POOLVILLE AND MINERAL WELLS
STATE PARK.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3300 9822 3300 9785 3256 9790 3255 9807
      3250 9807 3238 9801 3214 9845 3226 9854
      3230 9847 3251 9848 3252 9854
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 237DEG 33KT 3232 9837

AS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
621 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HAIL             SIDNEY                  31.95N  98.73W
03/15/2014  E1.75 INCH       COMANCHE           TX   AMATEUR RADIO

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
644 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0637 PM     HAIL             COMANCHE                31.90N  98.62W
03/15/2014  E1.00 INCH       COMANCHE           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN THE CITY OF COMMANCHE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
730 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0711 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PLANO                   33.02N  96.72W
03/15/2014                   COLLIN             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FENCES BLOWN DOWN AND SOME SHINGLES BLOWN OFF A ROOF IN
            PLANO AT THE INTERSECTION OF CUSTER RD. AND HEDGECOXE RD.