Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
250 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WERE NOW BEGINNING
TO ENTER NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
SUPERCELL STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WERE ALREADY
DEVELOPING ALONG A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH FROM BRIDGE PORT TO
MUENSTER. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WAS LINGERING 50-75 MILES BACK TO
THE WEST AND WAS JUST ENTERING NORTHWEST YOUNG COUNTY AS OF 2 PM.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL NOW BE IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM
SOUTHEAST OF A GAINESVILLE...TO MINERAL WELLS TO GORMAN LINE.

WE LOOK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO CONTINU TO PROGRESSIVELY MOVE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE CENTRAL U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS LARGER SCALE ASCENT/DPVA CORRELATES ON TOP OF
THE COLD FRONT...THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR A ZIPPER EFFECT OF
STORMS DOWN THE COLD FRONT AND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE FORCING...DEEP 30-35KT EFFECTIVE
LAYER SHEAR AND A 80-90KT UPPER JET MAXIMUM WILL ALLOW STORM MOTIONS
OF INDIVIDUAL SUPERCELLS ALONG THE DEVELOPING LINE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST 20-30 MPH...WHILE THE SQUALL LINE ITSELF PROGRESSES
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 15-20 MPH. HAVE LEFT THE UPDATE HIGHER CHANCES
FROM THIS PAST MORNING AND THE TRENDS FOR TONIGHT TO CONTINUE AS
ALL IS FALLING INTO PLACE COVERAGE AND TIMING WISE. LOOK FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH 4-5 PM. WITH
ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW THROUGH 1 KM REMAINING VEERED AHEAD OF THE
STORMS...WE EXPECT A QUASI-LINEAR STORM MODE TO SET UP BY THE
EVENING RUSH HOUR WITH DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH...LARGE HAIL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN THREATS. THROUGH 6 PM...IF ANY
STORM OUTFLOW ACTIVITY WAS TO INTERACT WITH ANOTHER CELL UPSTREAM...
THEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT THE
PROBABILITIES ARE FAIRLY LOW.

THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SQUALL LINE WILL SPEED UP AND MOVE READILY
EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID-LATE
EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY RAPIDLY
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BUT IT IS LIKELY THIS AREA MAY
BE DONE AS WELL BY THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. THE DRY AIR AND WEAKENING
WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WITH DECOUPLING WILL ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF LOWER 60S IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN BY LATE MORNING
FRIDAY WITH PLEASANT AFTERNOON HIGHS 75-85 AFTER THE COOL START.
THE DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RESULT IN LIKELY
HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHO MISS OUT ON
MUCH OF TODAY/S RAINFALL.

A BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEKEND/S FORECAST WITH
DRY AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. EACH DAY WILL START ON THE COOL
SIDE DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. LOWS ACROSS RURAL AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-20 WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 40S SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
WARMING BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.
AFTER ANOTHER COOL START TO THE DAY SUNDAY IN THE 50S...SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL WARM THE ENTIRE AREA BACK INTO THE 80S
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FORECAST GETS MURKY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE WITHIN THE BASE OF
THE BROAD MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LONGWAVE TROUGH AND TOWARD THE AREA.
IN THE MEANTIME...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER. THE EUROPEAN
12Z RUN HAS BEEN SLOW TO ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE 00Z IS
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE TROUGH...WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT AS
STRONG IN THAT REGARD. ANOTHER QUESTION MARK WILL BE MOISTURE...
THOUGH NAM/GFS TIME SECTIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DO SHOW A GOOD
RETURN FETCH OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 850-750MB. DOES THIS MEAN HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MORE RAIN? NO...BUT IT DOES MEAN ENOUGH MOISTURE
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES FOR AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. I HAVE INSERTED JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
NOW...BUT EXPECT SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MODELS TRY TO GET A BETTER HANDLE OF ALL STATED ABOVE.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL LIFT AWAY AND DAMPEN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN INTENSIFYING
UPPER HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH SURFACE LEE-SIDE
PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE END
RESULT WILL BE BREEZY AND WARMER WEATHER WITH HIGHS RISING ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1229 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/
HI RES MODELS STILL FORECAST THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STORMS
BEFORE THE MAIN FEATURE...SO WILL LEAVE THE VCTS IN FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON. BEST TIMING STILL APPEARS TO BE 20Z-22Z IN METROPLEX
AND AN HOUR LATER IN WACO. STORMS WILL PUSH ON OUT QUICKLY AND
THEN NORTH WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR REST OF TAF
PERIOD. 84

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  82  51  79  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              58  84  49  79  53 /  40   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             55  78  44  74  50 /  60   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            54  81  43  78  54 /  10   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          56  81  43  77  52 /  30   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            60  82  52  79  58 /  30   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           58  82  47  78  54 /  50   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         60  83  49  78  55 /  60   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            58  85  50  79  53 /  50   5   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     54  82  44  79  54 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

 /05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
204 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-031230-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
204 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF INTERSTATE 35
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY SWEEP EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE
35/35W LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS EAST OF A LINE FROM
MONTAGUE TO EASTLAND. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.

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