Severe Thunderstorm Warning 216, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
317 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH INTO
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE
MEANTIME...A BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM SATURDAY EVENING/S STORMS
REMAINS THE FOCAL POINT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. STORM INITIATION WAS ALREADY OCCURRING NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 THIS AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT MORE SCATTERED STORMS TO
DEVELOP MAINLY NORTH OF THE METROPLEX THROUGH THIS EVENING. STORM
CHANCES THROUGH SUNSET ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. LIKE THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS...STEERING
CURRENTS ALOFT ARE WEAK AND EXPECT STORM MOTIONS TO BE SLOW AND
INFLUENCED BY LOCALIZED STORM OUTFLOW. MESOANALYSIS DATA CONTINUES
TO SHOW THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
WHERE HIGHER DEW PTS RESIDE. A FEW STRONG TO BRIEF SEVERE STORMS
WITH SEVERE MICROBURSTS...LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER BY SUNRISE MONDAY. WE DO NOT BELIEVE
STORMS WILL REACH SEVERE LIMITS DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD...THOUGH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN THREATS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESSIVELY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS
MONDAY AND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE FRONT
WILL BE ASSISTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE GFS HAS SPED UP IT/S FRONTAL
TIMING MORE TOWARD THE FASTER SOLUTIONS ADVERTISED BY THE OTHER
MODELS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES
SOMETIME ON TUESDAY. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. WIDESPREAD
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF
BETTER FORCING ALOFT. ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
LINGER INITIALLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT EVENTUALLY END AS A
DRIER AIRMASS ENTRAINS IN FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY.

STRONG TO EVEN A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
EXPECTED. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLLAPSING STORMS
AND RESULTANT MICROBURSTS WITH WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND THE INABILITY
TO EVACUATE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BE RELATIVELY DRIER...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER-MID 90S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID- UPPER 60S ACROSS THE RURAL
AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS WHERE STRONGER RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED.

THE UPPER HIGH EXPANDS EAST LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH RETREATING AWAY FROM THE AREA. HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE UPPER
HIGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND THE CENTURY MARK RETURN AS WELL
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA WITH HEAT BEING THE PRIMARY WEATHER
CONCERN.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1224 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AROUND DFW THIS
AFTERNOON. FRONT ARRIVES ON MONDAY WITH WIND SHIFT AND MORE
CONVECTION POSSIBLE.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE TAF SITES AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING. WILL
LIKELY SEE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR VARIOUS
BOUNDARIES THAT ARE CURRENTLY AROUND THE DFW METROPLEX AND WILL
INCLUDE A VCTS MENTION FROM 20/21Z-00/01Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE A
THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT MAY IMPACT THE AIRPORTS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE WINDS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE DFW AIRPORTS AROUND 15Z AND WILL BE REACHING WACO
NEAR THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THE FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL INCLUDE A VCSH MENTION AT ALL THE TAF
SITES BEGINNING AROUND 14-15Z..

82/JLD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80  97  76  94  71 /  20  40  20   5   0
WACO, TX              77 101  76  96  72 /  10  40  40  20   5
PARIS, TX             75  95  70  91  66 /  30  40  10   5   0
DENTON, TX            76  98  71  94  67 /  20  40  20   5   0
MCKINNEY, TX          75  97  71  93  67 /  30  40  20   5   0
DALLAS, TX            81  99  77  94  72 /  20  40  20   5   0
TERRELL, TX           77  97  73  94  68 /  20  40  20   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         77  98  76  95  70 /  10  40  30  10   0
TEMPLE, TX            75 101  74  95  71 /  10  30  40  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  97  70  93  66 /  20  40  20   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ117>123-131>135-
144>148-157>162-174-175.

&&

05/

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
329 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014

TXZ102-103-102100-
DENTON TX-WISE TX-
329 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN DENTON COUNTY
  SOUTHEASTERN WISE COUNTY

AT 329 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF BRIAR...MOVING EAST AT 5
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE AURORA...JUSTIN...AND
NORTHLAKE

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3321 9723 3299 9723 3299 9725 3300 9752
      3318 9752
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 269DEG 5KT 3309 9741

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