Severe Thunderstorm Warning 210, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
339 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT WAS LOCATED
OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED INTO NORTH TEXAS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND IS EASILY VISIBLE VIA WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS...THE SURFACE LOW APPEARS TO BE
LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX NEAR GRANBURY AS OF
08Z...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
LOW. THIS SYSTEM BROUGHT IN A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAT RESULTED IN HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR RED RIVER
COUNTIES AND THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING FOR
AREAS NORTHEAST OF A BOWIE...TO DALLAS...TO PALESTINE LINE.
LOCALIZED FLOODING HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED AND WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A THREAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WHILE MOST AREAS OF THE CWA WILL SEE LESS THAN A QUARTER
OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL...AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE DFW METRO MAY SEE
AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS IN THIS AREA WILL BE OVER 2 INCHES AND
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE THICK...SUGGESTING WARM RAIN PROCESSES
DOMINATING THE AREA.

THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING AND SHOULD END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RAPID END TO
THE PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA WITH RAINFALL EXPECTED TO END BY
THIS EVENING. THE LOW APPEARS TO BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE PENDANT COLD FRONT DRAGGING FROM IT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY AND CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT. WEAK NORTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLOW TO CLIMB AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LINGERING CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD DIMINISH THIS WEEKEND AND HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AS WEAK NORTH WINDS REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA.

THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD
OVER THE COMING DAYS AND EDGE CLOSER TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
HOWEVER...WE SHOULD STAY ON THE PERIPHERY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND COULD INTRODUCE
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK...SHOULD UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDE AROUND THE RIDGE AND TRAVERSE CLOSE TO NORTH
TEXAS. HIGHS IN THE 90S WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AND THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY WILL HELP ACCELERATE THE
WARMING TREND BUT TRIPLE DIGITS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

AJS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 643 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS
OVERNIGHT AND THEN AT WACO LATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT
BRINGING NORTH WINDS TO THE REGION.

SOUTHEAST WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT LOCATED NEAR A LINE FROM
FREDERICK OK TO MIDLAND TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY
PROGRESS OVERNIGHT REACHING THE METROPLEX BY 14Z AND WACO AROUND
16Z THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE METROPLEX...AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BEGINNING AROUND
05Z AS LIFT OCCURS AHEAD OF AN ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE. LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE VCSH/VCTS MENTION OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY
INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR -TSRA AT THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS WITH A LATER
TAF ISSUANCE. BEST GUESS RIGHT NOW FOR STORMS IN THE METROPLEX
MAY BE 09-13Z BUT WILL WATCH THE EVOLUTION AND ATTEMPT TO PINPOINT
A BETTER TIMING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WACO IN A
MUCH SHORTER WINDOW BETWEEN 16-19Z.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND IMPACT ALL TAF SITES BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

82/JLD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  67  85  62  88 /  50  10   5   5   5
WACO, TX              88  68  87  67  89 /  30  20  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             73  63  81  63  84 /  50  20  10   5  10
DENTON, TX            77  65  85  61  86 /  50  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          77  64  83  62  86 /  50  10   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            83  67  84  63  88 /  50  10   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           83  69  83  65  89 /  50  20  10   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         86  70  85  65  87 /  40  20  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            88  68  90  65  89 /  40  20  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     81  65  87  64  88 /  30  10   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

 /

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
947 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-311200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
947 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INCREASING OVERNIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BOWIE...TO PLANO...TO CANTON...WITH
LESSER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS NORTH THROUGH EAST OF THE
METROPLEX.

A LOCALIZED THREAT FOR STRONG TO BRIEF SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AND ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE
35 EAST CORRIDOR THROUGH MIDNIGHT. VERY GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS ON THURSDAY. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GENERALLY EAST OF
I-35. FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BOWIE TO
CANTON...THERE WILL BE A HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
THREAT IN THE MORNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT NORTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AND ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
EAST CORRIDOR.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
207 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0202 AM     FLASH FLOOD      LITTLE ELM              33.15N  96.97W
07/31/2014                   DENTON             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            3.25" OF RAIN MEASURED IN LITTLE ELM. ELDORADO ROAD FROM
            HART DR. TO LAKES DR. CLOSED DUE TO FLASH FLOODING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
208 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 AM     HEAVY RAIN       SANGER                  33.37N  97.18W
07/31/2014  E3.95 INCH       DENTON             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            3.95" OF RAIN MEASURED IN SANGER.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
254 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

TXZ120-121-310845-
KAUFMAN TX-ROCKWALL TX-
254 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  KAUFMAN COUNTY
  SOUTHEASTERN ROCKWALL COUNTY

AT 252 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM ROCKWALL TO TERRELL...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES UP TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR...AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS IS
LIKELY DURING THE HEAVIEST PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THESE STORMS WERE
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. IF THEY SLOW DOWN OR NEW STORMS
DEVELOP TO THE NORTHWEST...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MAY BE ISSUED.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE FORNEY...KAUFMAN...KEMP AND
TERRELL.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

LAT...LON 3236 9624 3281 9652 3298 9631 3298 9630
      3284 9630 3284 9620 3266 9607 3248 9607
TIME...MOT...LOC 0752Z 322DEG 19KT 3269 9629

CAVANAUGH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
345 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

TXZ122-310915-
VAN ZANDT TX-
345 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  VAN ZANDT COUNTY

AT 345 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF CANTON...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CANTON...EDGEWOOD...EDOM...
FRUITVALE...GRAND SALINE AND VAN.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3236 9546 3235 9548 3238 9608 3239 9608
      3279 9588 3277 9585 3277 9576 3276 9576
      3271 9566 3272 9563 3269 9559 3248 9559
      3237 9546
TIME...MOT...LOC 0845Z 274DEG 20KT 3258 9592

CAVANAUGH