Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
243 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE REGION IN
PROXIMITY OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND STOUT SHORTWAVE. MODEL TRENDS
INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TO OUR
NORTHEAST...WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME DRIVING THIS ACTIVITY
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD NORTH TEXAS. AT THE CURRENT RATE OF
DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT...CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO CROSS OVER
INTO LAMAR COUNTY NEAR PARIS AND SURROUNDING AREAS AROUND 6 PM OR
SO. THE TIME OF DAY WOULD SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
BE STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT AS THEY AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. A WEAKENING
TREND IS EXPECTED AS CELLS MOVE FARTHER SOUTHWEST...DUE TO THE
WANING OF SURFACE HEATING AND ALSO TO THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE DOMINANT RIDGE TO THE WEST. STILL...LOW POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED IN THE METROPLEX AND SURROUNDING AREAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
OR SO....WITH ACTIVITY DISSIPATING THEREAFTER.

A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARISE AGAIN THURSDAY AS A WEAK
FRONT SAGS SOUTH TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WEST OF I-35...IT
APPEARS THAT SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHUT OFF ANY
ATTEMPT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND UNCOMFORTABLE HEAT. AFTER CAREFULLY
RUNNING AND FINALIZING THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT FORECAST...THE
RESULTING APPARENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS ARE INDICATING HEAT INDICES
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN THE 105 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE BOTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP THE HEAT
INDEX BELOW 105. WE WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR
MOST OF NORTH TEXAS...EXCLUDING THE AREAS WEST OF A MINERAL WELLS
TO GATESVILLE LINE WHERE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.
THE ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY UNTIL 9 PM
FRIDAY NIGHT. PLEASE USE CAUTION WHEN PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES...STAY HYDRATED...AND SCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES FOR
EARLY IN THE DAY WHEN POSSIBLE.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT ON MONDAY...AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES
TO THE WEST. THIS WILL PLACE NORTH TEXAS IN A STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. THIS PATTERN WILL SEND ANOTHER RARE JULY
COLD FRONT SOUTH FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE RED RIVER ON MONDAY. A
CHANCE OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT....WITH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE FRONT.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1236 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CHANCE FOR A COMPLEX OF STORMS TO AFFECT THE METROPLEX
AIRPORTS FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH FEW-SCT CUMULUS
CLOUDS BETWEEN 4-6 KFT AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS. A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA/WESTERN
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH TEXAS. MUCH
OF THE HI-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN BRINGING
THIS MCS INTO THE METROPLEX THIS EVENING...JUST AFTER 00Z. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF VCTS IN THE METROPLEX FROM 01-03Z BUT
WILL CLOSELY BE WATCHING THE EVOLUTION AND SPEED OF THE DEVELOPING
MCS THIS AFTERNOON...FOR ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING. IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES THAT THE STORMS WILL AFFECT THE AIRPORTS...WILL AMEND
TO INCLUDE TSRA WITH STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS DUE TO THE OUTFLOW.
THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
METROPLEX AIRPORTS BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONG OR SEVERE STORM IN THE METROPLEX PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLE HAIL. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DISSIPATES THE MCS BEFORE IT
REACHES KACT AND WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER IN THE KACT TAF AT THIS
TIME.

EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST
TO EAST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND
KACT BETWEEN 10-13Z THURSDAY MORNING.

82/JLD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79 100  80 103  79 /  20  10  10   5   0
WACO, TX              75 100  77 101  76 /  10  10  10   5   0
PARIS, TX             75  95  73  99  75 /  30  20  10   5   0
DENTON, TX            76 100  77 103  78 /  20  10  10   5   0
MCKINNEY, TX          76  98  77 102  77 /  30  10  10   5   0
DALLAS, TX            79 100  80 103  78 /  20  10  10   5   0
TERRELL, TX           76  99  76 101  76 /  20  10  10   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         76  99  77 100  76 /  20  10  10   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            74  99  76 100  76 /  10  10  10   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     75 101  76 103  76 /  20  10  10   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-117>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175.

&&

82/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
304 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-241230-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
304 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF A LINE FROM PALESTINE TO MERIDIAN TO JACKSBORO
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG OR MARGINALLY
SEVERE THIS EVENING...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. SOME HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES ON BOTH OF THE AFTERNOONS WILL
BE AT OR OVER 105 DEGREES.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON EAST
OF A LINE FROM BONHAM TO CORSICANA TO HEARNE.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY OVER ALL OF NORTH TEXAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS EVENING TO THE
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BOWIE TO CLEBURNE TO ATHENS.

82/JLD