Severe Thunderstorm Warning 172, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
414 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE SLOW-MOVING SHORT WAVE THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX. FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS PARTS OF HOOD...SOMERVELL...JOHNSON...BOSQUE AND
NORTHERN HILL COUNTIES. MOST OF THE RAIN HAS ENDED ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-20 AND THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND MOVE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CROSS THE RED RIVER BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE
MONDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
INSOLATION...SO HAVE FORECAST MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTH
AND LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE EXTENDED PART
OF THE FORECAST REMAINS QUITE CHALLENGING AS THE GFS BUILDS IN A
RIDGE FROM THE WEST LATE WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS US IN A
WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND ANOTHER RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. HAVE KEPT 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3S SATURDAY.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1259 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES AT THE AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED FOR THE TIME BEING BUT KEPT
A MENTION OF VCTS IN THE KFTW TAF FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
THE SOUTHWEST. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THESE STORMS TO ENCROACH ON KFTW
THOUGH. THE RAIN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN BUT THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT
SOME 3-5SM VISBY RESTRICTIONS AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. DUE
TO TODAYS RAINS...THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER TOMORROW MORNING AND THIS WILL
LIKELY WORK AGAINST FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...WILL INCLUDE A
MENTION OF 4-5SM BR AT THE AIRPORTS EXCEPT FOR KDFW AND KDAL WHERE
WIND SPEEDS MAY BE OVER 10 KTS.

A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTH TEXAS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AND MAY BRING RAIN OR POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
METROPLEX TAF AIRPORTS BY MID MORNING. FOR NOW WILL MENTION VCSH
AS IT IS LIKELY THAT THE COMPLEX WILL BE DISSIPATING AS IT
CROSSES THE RED RIVER...HOWEVER...FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES MAY HAVE TO
INCLUDE THUNDER DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRENDS.

FOR KACT...MVFR CIGS AND VIS WILL OCCUR FROM ABOUT 09Z THROUGH MIDDAY.

82/JLD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  90  75  89  75 /  20  40  40  40  30
WACO, TX              72  91  74  90  74 /  30  20  20  40  30
PARIS, TX             71  88  71  88  72 /  30  50  50  40  30
DENTON, TX            73  89  73  89  74 /  20  40  50  40  30
MCKINNEY, TX          72  88  73  89  73 /  20  40  50  40  30
DALLAS, TX            73  90  75  89  75 /  20  40  40  40  30
TERRELL, TX           72  89  73  90  73 /  20  40  30  40  30
CORSICANA, TX         72  90  73  90  73 /  30  30  20  40  30
TEMPLE, TX            72  92  73  90  73 /  30  20  20  40  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  90  72  88  71 /  20  30  40  40  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

82/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
358 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-231215-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
358 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS UP TO 50 TO 60 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
319 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 PM     FLASH FLOOD      GRANBURY                32.45N  97.80W
06/22/2014                   HOOD               TX   PUBLIC

            FLOODING AROUND CROSSLAND CHRISTIAN SCHOOL OFF MEADER RD
            IN GRANBURY. CREEK STILL RISING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
320 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0252 PM     FLASH FLOOD      GRANBURY                32.45N  97.80W
06/22/2014                   HOOD               TX   PUBLIC

            WATER UP TO 3 FEET OVER ROADWAYS IN PARTS OF GRANBURY
            VIA TWITTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
326 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0112 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 WSW CLEBURNE          32.32N  97.48W
06/22/2014                   JOHNSON            TX   PUBLIC

            WATER OVER THE ROADWAY ON CR 1121 JUST EAST OF FM 2331

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
402 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

TXZ144-145-222130-
HILL TX-BOSQUE TX-
402 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EASTERN BOSQUE COUNTY
  WEST CENTRAL HILL COUNTY

AT 402 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 18 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLIFTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 5 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BLUM...WHITNEY...CLIFTON...
MERIDIAN AND LAKE WHITNEY STATE PARK.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3188 9720 3168 9759 3196 9772 3208 9761
      3215 9740
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 315DEG 6KT 3202 9745

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
406 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N MORGAN              32.03N  97.62W
06/22/2014                   BOSQUE             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SH 174 NORTH OF MORGAN IS BEING CLOSED DUE TO WATER OVER
            THE ROAD.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
430 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

TXZ144-145-222200-
HILL TX-BOSQUE TX-
430 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL BOSQUE COUNTY
  SOUTHWESTERN HILL COUNTY

AT 430 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLIFTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 10 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE WHITNEY AND LAKE WHITNEY
STATE PARK.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3192 9713 3174 9729 3193 9755 3208 9743
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 304DEG 11KT 3194 9738