Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
251 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

ON GOING AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS TARGETING AREAS EAST OF
I-35 FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE EXTENDED CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SUNSET EAST OF I-35.

DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PIVOT INTO THE
CANADIAN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU TODAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY GENERALLY WEST OF I-35 AND THEN OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF ON
THURSDAY EVENING.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IT IS EXPECTED
THAT UPPER TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE STATE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS WEAK ON THE
STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH...WHICH IS IN FAIRLY CLOSE
AGREEMENT TO PREVIOUS GFS SOLUTIONS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF
NOW HAS A MUCH STRONGER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE STATE AND KEEPS IT
PROGRESSIVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN
A COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER AND ALSO RESULT IN
MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN HALF. SINCE THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THIS TROUGH THAN THE PAST SEVERAL PREVIOUS
RUNS...HAVE DECIDED TO NOT COMMIT TO THE COLD FRONT OR THE
RESULTING INCREASE IN CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS/LOWS WILL REMAIN SEASONAL THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN BOTH SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...PROVIDED
THE GFS SOLUTION PANS OUT. 75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  91  75  92  74 /  10  10  20   0   5
WACO, TX              76  91  71  91  71 /  10  10  10   0   5
PARIS, TX             74  90  72  89  70 /  30  10  20  10   5
DENTON, TX            76  90  72  92  71 /  10  10  20   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          76  90  73  90  71 /  20  10  20   5   5
DALLAS, TX            77  90  74  92  74 /  10  10  20   0   5
TERRELL, TX           79  92  76  92  74 /  30  10  10   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         75  90  72  90  71 /  30  10  10   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            75  90  71  89  70 /  10  10  10   0   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  91  71  92  71 /  10  20  20   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

 /75

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
251 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-191200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
251 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 EAST
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 30...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. A
FEW STORMS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MORE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. STORMS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND
35 WEST ON THURSDAY...THEN NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE...TO
DALLAS...TO COOPER THURSDAY NIGHT.

LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

05/

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