Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
852 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

.UPDATE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...AND WE HAVE
LOWERED POPS SUBSTANTIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
ALSO...COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 HAVE BEEN CLEARED FROM
TORNADO WATCH 288. WE WILL CLEAR ADDITIONAL COUNTIES AS NEEDED AS
THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 809 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/
UPDATED TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE DFW AREA.

ELEVATED STORMS WHICH DEVELOPED NEAR THE RED RIVER HAVE DISSIPATED
AND THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE METROPLEX. CELLS WEST OF THE WACO AREA STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO IMPACT KACT AND WE WILL LEAVE A 2 HOUR WINDOW FROM 02-04Z IN
THE KACT TAF.

30

&&

.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...

UPDATED GRIDS/GRAPHICS TO REFLECT TORNADO WATCH 288 FOR THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES AT
THIS TIME.

21Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
THE AREA WITH OVER 4000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW/MID 70S
AND TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 90 DEGREES. WINDS REMAIN BACKED IN THE
VICINITY OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND
WILL HELP KEEP AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR TORNADOES FROM COMANCHE TO
HAMILTON TO WACO AND AREAS SOUTH THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

FARTHER NORTH...MORE ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH MAINLY A HAIL THREAT AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/

UPDATE ON SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE MESOSCALE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CELL THAT WAS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA
EARLIER THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A RECOVERY OF THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THIS PART
OF THE CWA...HOWEVER AIRCRAFT SOUNDING DATA STILL INDICATES THAT
LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS STILL OCCURRING. THIS SUBSIDENCE
APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING A BIT BASED ON LATEST RADAR DATA WHICH HAS
SHOWN A GENERAL UPTICK IN INTENSITY OVER THE LAST 30 MINUTES OR
SO. ANALYSIS OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THAT IT IS
POSITIONED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR BRECKENRIDGE TO JUST NORTH OF
WACO AND EAST TO PALESTINE. IT APPEARS TO BE RETREATING AS A WEAK
WARM FRONT WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF
WACO TOWARD PALESTINE. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
INDICATES 2500-4000J/KG OF INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH
WEAKENING INHIBITION. IN ADDITION...THE STRONGLY BACKED SURFACE
WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY IS RESULTING IN LOCALLY
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE SPREADING INTO WEST
TEXAS WHICH WILL SPREAD LARGER SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ATOP THIS
HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL FORCING. ALL OF THIS BODES WELL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE
MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA FROM COMANCHE TO WACO SOUTH TO
CAMERON. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HIGH INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A
VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT...SOME TO BASEBALL SIZE OR LARGER.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES NEAR THE
BOUNDARY PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. INITIAL
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DISCRETE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA WITH
THE HIGHER TORNADO POTENTIAL AND MAY DEVELOP INTO ONE OR MORE
SUPERCELLULAR CLUSTERS LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT HEADS
SOUTH...BECOMING A MORE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND THREAT. FOR THIS
EVENING...WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20.

FARTHER NORTH...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AND
WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
AND THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. WHILE THERE IS SOME
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THE MAIN THREAT NORTH OF THE
RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE LARGE HAIL. THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WITH RAIN
CHANCES DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO SURGE COMPLETELY THROUGH THE
AREA BY LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION THIS EVENING
COULD ACT AS AN EFFECTIVE FRONT SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE FRONT WILL HANG UP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH RIDGING NOSING IN AT 500MB. WILL KEEP
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AMPLE INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE PRESENT BY AFTERNOON FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL STORM.

THROUGH THE EXTENDED...HAVE GENERALLY KEPT THE FORECAST DRY INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE. WARM MORNINGS AND HUMID
AFTERNOONS APPEAR LIKELY AND THERE WILL BE SEVERAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES THAT PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT ONE OR MORE OF THESE COULD BRING SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

DUNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  89  72  92  74 /  30  10  10  10  10
WACO, TX              70  89  71  92  73 /  60  20  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             65  85  66  87  70 /  30   5  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            66  87  70  92  72 /  20   5  10  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          66  86  70  89  73 /  30   5  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            70  88  72  91  73 /  30  10  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           71  87  71  89  75 /  40  10  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         70  89  71  90  73 /  50  10  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            72  89  72  93  72 /  60  20  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  88  71  92  71 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

30/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
940 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-140245-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
940 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT. THE
MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM COMANCHE TO PALESTINE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
MAIN THREATS....WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM GOLDTHWAITE TO PALESTINE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
COMANCHE TO PALESTINE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
908 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

TXZ141-143-130230-
HAMILTON TX-COMANCHE TX-
908 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL COMANCHE COUNTY
  NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTY

AT 907 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF HAMILTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE HAMILTON.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FRIDAY MORNING
FOR CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3197 9825 3197 9824 3192 9821 3194 9816
      3183 9788 3166 9810 3182 9842
TIME...MOT...LOC 0207Z 299DEG 19KT 3183 9820

82/JLD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
922 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

TXZ143-130315-
HAMILTON TX-
922 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  HAMILTON COUNTY

AT 922 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 17 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DUBLIN...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH. ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS LOCATED NORTH OF HAMILTON MOVING
SOUTHEAST.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE HAMILTON AND HICO.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FRIDAY MORNING
FOR CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3184 9815 3192 9820 3202 9801 3187 9789
      3167 9777 3151 9809 3177 9830
TIME...MOT...LOC 0222Z 288DEG 14KT 3197 9808

82/JLD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1005 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

TXZ162-175-130330-
LEON TX-ROBERTSON TX-
1005 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WESTERN LEON COUNTY
  ROBERTSON COUNTY

AT 1005 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 19 MILES NORTH OF HEARNE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15
MPH. ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS LOCATED ALONG THE ROBERTSON AND LEON
COUNTY LINE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE FRANKLIN.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FRIDAY MORNING
FOR CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3116 9671 3135 9633 3138 9631 3142 9621
      3109 9598 3106 9603 3107 9604 3104 9607
      3093 9632 3086 9638 3083 9639 3074 9648
TIME...MOT...LOC 0305Z 310DEG 15KT 3112 9646

82/JLD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1026 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

TXZ157-130400-
CORYELL TX-
1026 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CORYELL COUNTY

AT 1026 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES WEST OF GATESVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE FORT GATES AND GATESVILLE.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...PENNY-SIZED HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FRIDAY MORNING
FOR CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3117 9785 3150 9810 3168 9776 3137 9752
TIME...MOT...LOC 0326Z 304DEG 18KT 3148 9788

82/JLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1042 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     HAIL             5 SE IREDELL            31.93N  97.81W
06/12/2014  E1.75 INCH       BOSQUE             TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1055 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     HAIL             5 NW MERIDIAN           31.97N  97.71W
06/12/2014  E1.25 INCH       BOSQUE             TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            ALONG STATE HIGHWAY 6