Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
251 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...RAIN/THUNDER COVERAGE HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LOW ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS SO FAR TODAY HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE HRRR
MODEL HAS HAD A FAIRLY DECENT HANDLE ON THE PRECIP PATTERN TODAY
AND IT IS SHOWING STORM CELLS DEVELOPING FROM THE DENTON AREA TO
FORT WORTH TO NEAR GATESVILLE BY 22Z. BY 00Z CELLS TRACK EASTWARD AND
LINE UP ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND BY 06Z MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL HAVE CLEARED OUR CWA. THE GREATEST
CONCERN FOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS THIS IS THE AREA THAT WE'VE SEEN
THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TODAY ALLOWING FOR HEATING AND
INSTABILITY TO TAKE PLACE. THIS IS ALSO THE AREA WHERE THE HIGHEST
DEW POINTS RESIDE AND WE'VE SEEN A FAIRLY CONSISTENT CU FIELD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP LOOK TO BE DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. WHILE
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT LOOKS
FAIRLY LOW.

TONIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WE'VE BEEN
DISCUSSING FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW HAS CONTINUED ITS SLOW MOVEMENT
TODAY EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE RED RIVER. THIS
MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH
THE LOW MOVING INTO THE ARKLATEX BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A BIT AS TO THE
FATE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. CONSENSUS SHOWS THE LOW SOMEWHAT
QUASI STATIONARY OVER LOUISIANA AND EAST TEXAS WITH PERHAPS A SLOW
DRIFT SOUTHWARD BY FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY THE UPPER LOW FINALLY SHOWS
SIGNS OF DISSIPATION AND THE CLOSED NATURE OF THE UPPER LOW
TRANSITIONS MORE INTO AN OPEN WAVE TYPE FEATURE BEFORE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

DUE TO UPPER LOW MAINTAINING ITS PROXIMITY TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE FACT THAT THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS
STILL FAIRLY LOW BEYOND WEDNESDAY THERE HAVE BEEN NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WE WILL GENERALLY HAVE SMALL CHANCES
(20-40 POPS) FOR RAIN/THUNDER FROM THE METROPLEX EASTWARD WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES (20 POP) FOR AREAS WEST OF THE METROPLEX.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED (1.5+ IN) THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE PERIOD SO THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH BUT WITH NO WELL DEFINED SURFACE FEATURE AND NO DISTINCT FORCING
MECHANISMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE RAIN/THUNDER
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AT BEST EACH DAY.

AFTER A SOMEWHAT COOLER DAY TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY TAKE ON
A WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S WEDNESDAY WARMING TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND THEN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY THE WEEKEND.

HOETH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  85  70  86  70 /  30  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              66  86  66  87  69 /  40  20  20  20  20
PARIS, TX             64  81  65  83  67 /  60  30  30  30  30
DENTON, TX            64  84  66  85  68 /  30  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          65  82  66  84  68 /  40  20  20  20  30
DALLAS, TX            67  84  70  86  70 /  40  20  20  20  30
TERRELL, TX           68  85  71  86  72 /  60  30  20  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         66  83  67  85  68 /  60  30  30  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            67  85  66  87  68 /  40  20  20  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     62  87  65  88  66 /  20  10  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

 /

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
326 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-281145-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
326 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION.
SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION TO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
432 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

TXZ130-272200-
ERATH TX-
432 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL ERATH COUNTY

AT 432 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF STEPHENVILLE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3242 9805 3239 9801 3222 9794 3214 9789
      3209 9787 3205 9794 3230 9820
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 314DEG 28KT 3230 9805

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
525 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

TXZ156-272300-
LAMPASAS TX-
525 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN LAMPASAS COUNTY

AT 525 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES EAST OF SAN SABA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3123 9857 3127 9848 3103 9830 3103 9844
      3104 9848 3107 9849 3108 9847 3111 9847
      3111 9850 3109 9853 3111 9855 3116 9853
      3120 9858
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 331DEG 22KT 3120 9856

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
527 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0519 PM     HAIL             7 NE WALNUT SPRINGS     32.14N  97.67W
05/27/2014  E1.00 INCH       BOSQUE             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER HAIL 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF WALNUT SPRINGS