Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
623 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

.AVIATION...
A LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS MOVED EAST OF THE METROPLEX WITH
TS/TSRA EXPECTED AT KDFW/KGKY/KDAL UNTIL 01 OR 02Z...THEN
BASICALLY MOVING EAST OF THE METROPLEX FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

KACT WILL BEGIN WITH TSRA AND GUSTY CONVECTIVE WINDS. THE LINE
SHOULD MOVED EAST OF KACT BY 02Z. THERE WILL REMAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MORE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND NONE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

CIGS/VIS WILL BE A TOUGH CALL DURING THIS FORECAST. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE METROPLEX THROUGH MID EVENING... REFORMING
BY 06Z AND LOWERING TO AROUND 1000FT FROM 07Z TO 15Z...AND THEN
VFR ON FRIDAY.

KACT WILL SEE MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT COULD
HAVE AN HOUR OR TWO OF VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. KACT SHOULD GO
VFR MIDDAY FRIDAY.

ALL TAF SITES...WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY NEAR/AROUND 10
KNOTS...BUT THEY SHOULD VEER TO 200-230 ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014/
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONCHO
VALLEY/HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTION OF NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON IN THE REGION THAT SAW THE MOST AFTERNOON
SUN AND THE FEWEST MORNING THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND AFFECT ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST ZONES OF NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS...LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ROTATES EAST. THE
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE PRIMARY STORM MODE
WILL BE MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS WITH SOME LINEAR SEGMENTS.
HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW
SUPERCELLS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE. A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES FRIDAY SINCE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY NOT GET COMPLETELY SCOURED OUT.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL
KEEP A SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ENERGY FROM THIS
SYSTEM COUPLED WITH LIFT FROM AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD END QUICKLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. THIS DRY AND COOL AIR SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND
AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW RETURN TO NORTH TEXAS ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  66  89  70  90  72 /  20  10  10  10  10
WACO, TX              68  89  70  88  73 /  40  20  20  10  10
PARIS, TX             67  83  66  85  68 /  50  20  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            65  87  69  91  73 /  20  10  10  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          66  86  68  86  72 /  20  10  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            69  88  70  88  72 /  20  10  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           68  85  67  86  71 /  50  10  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         68  86  68  86  71 /  70  20  20  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            68  86  68  86  72 /  40  20  20  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     62  88  64  90  68 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

75/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
313 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-090815-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
313 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING...THEN ACROSS FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY HEAVIER
RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY
AROUND CREEKS AND TYPICAL LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A FEW LINGERING AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING SOUTHEAST OF A PARIS...CORSICANA...TEMPLE LINE.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TODAY ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS...THEN INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE
35.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
635 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

TXZ158-160-090000-
FALLS TX-BELL TX-
635 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN BELL COUNTY
  WEST CENTRAL FALLS COUNTY

AT 635 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF TEMPLE...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE LOTT...MORGAN'S POINT
RESORT...TEMPLE AND TROY.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3107 9750 3124 9753 3127 9737 3124 9734
      3129 9727 3133 9700 3111 9697
TIME...MOT...LOC 2335Z 262DEG 31KT 3117 9742

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