Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1235 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS...CROSS WINDS & SOME BLDU.

A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE WAS LOCATED IN IN WESTERN KANSAS
NORTHWEST OF KGCK AT 17 UTC. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...SLOW TO A STOP AND SPIN FOR A WHILE. A PACIFIC FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH AND
GUSTY STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND GUSTS
UP TO 33 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME CROSS WIND PROBLEMS ON
N-S RUNWAYS BY MID AFTERNOON AND THROUGH AT LEAST 01 UTC. THE
STRONG WINDS MOVING OUT OF WEST TEXAS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BLDU
THAT COULD SPREAD OVER THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND LAST THROUGH MID EVENING. MAINTAIN VFR VIS AND CIGS ACROSS THE
METROPLEX THROUGH THE FORECAST...BUT WILL UPDATE IF THE BLDU DOES
ACTUALLY AFFECT THE TAF SITES. KACT MAY SEE MVFR CIGS BETWEEN
18-19 UTC...OTHERWISE THEY SHOULD BE VFR.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS.
WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL RE-DEVELOP ON MONDAY
MORNING.    75

&&

.UPDATE...
FIRST WAVE OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A GRAVITY WAVE AND
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAVE WEAKENED AND ARE RACING EAST OUT THE CWA.
HOWEVER...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED FROM GAINESVILLE...TO
WEATHERFORD...TO COMANCHE AND THERE IS POTENTIAL PER THE HRRR/TECH
WRF/ARW WRF AND NAM12 HIGH RES MODELS OF AT LEAST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR FAR E/SE COUNTIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITH PEAK HEATING APPROACHING AND PLENTY OF TIME TO
DESTABILIZE...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
AND REASSESS IN A FEW HOURS ON CANCELING ANY WESTERN FRINGES OF
THE WATCH BASED ON FRONTAL POSITION.

IN ADDITION...WITH 850MB WINDS WSW 40-45 KTS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG HEATING WILL LIKELY
MIX SOME OF THIS STRONG FLOW DOWN...ALONG WITH A STRONG WESTERLY
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD AND
HAVE ADDED SOME BLOWING DUST POTENTIAL FOR MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
MID EVENING WEST OF A COMANCHE...FORT WORTH...GAINESVILLE LINE.
IT IS POSSIBLE ANY DUST COULD BECOME ELEVATED...BUT WITH SUCH
STRONG WSW COMPONENT TO FLOW IN THE LOWEST 10 KFT...IT IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND MATCHES WITH OUR NEIGHBORS TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST WELL.  05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014/
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE THROUGH WEST
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE BEFORE IT
ARRIVES IN NORTH TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE WESTERN CWA
BETWEEN 6 AND 7 AM AND PROGRESS STEADILY EASTWARD AS A POWERFUL
UPPER LOW LIFTS FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TO
NORTHERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING INDICATED
A STOUT (10 DEGREE) CAP IN PLACE WITH NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES ABOVE IT. WE EXPECT SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LOW MOVE EAST. THE BEST
STORM CHANCES THIS MORNING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION WHERE THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL RESIDE. SINCE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH...ANY MORNING STORM THAT
DOES MANAGE TO FORM WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME SURFACE BASED STORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AS IT SLOWS DOWN. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY OF THESE AFTERNOON STORMS. ALL STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION THIS EVENING ONCE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL TURN THE WIND TO THE
SOUTHWEST OR WEST AND INCREASE SPEEDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ALONG
WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE REGION. THEREFORE...WE WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY GENERALLY
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR FROM 10 AM UNTIL 7 PM. WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

ADIABATIC COMPRESSION/WARMING TODAY WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S AND EVEN SOME LOWER 90S IN THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES. THE HOT...WINDY AND DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...WE WILL NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING DUE TO
GREEN VEGETATION. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE 50S
OVERNIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS TEXAS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE REMAINS ON THE WEST
COAST AND A DEEP TROUGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP NORTH TEXAS WEATHER DRY AND QUIET WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND 50S.     79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  87  57  84  53  77 /  40   5   5  10   5
WACO, TX              89  55  86  52  81 /  30   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             84  57  80  52  76 /  60  20   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            87  51  84  49  79 /  30   5   5  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          86  53  85  50  76 /  60  10   5  10   5
DALLAS, TX            86  61  86  55  79 /  50   5   5  10   5
TERRELL, TX           87  56  84  53  80 /  60  10   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         88  58  86  56  81 /  40  10   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            89  59  86  56  79 /  20   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     88  51  87  50  78 /  10   5   5  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091-092-100>103-
115>118-129>133-141>144-156-157.

&&

75/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1127 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-281145-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
1127 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION. WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S...DROPPING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT. THE COMBINATION OF THE
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN A RISK OF GRASS
FIRES...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE...TO FORT
WORTH...TO GATESVILLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
948 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0919 AM     HAIL             WYLIE                   33.02N  96.55W
04/27/2014  E1.00 INCH       COLLIN             TX   PUBLIC

            IN WYLIE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1004 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

TXZ105-271530-
HUNT TX-
1004 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  HUNT COUNTY

AT 1005 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GREENVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CADDO MILLS...CAMPBELL...
COMMERCE...GREENVILLE AND QUINLAN.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3309 9586 3286 9615 3298 9630 3300 9630
      3340 9586
TIME...MOT...LOC 1505Z 221DEG 46KT 3302 9613

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1243 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0936 AM     HAIL             KAUFMAN                 32.58N  96.32W
04/27/2014  E0.75 INCH       KAUFMAN            TX   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZE HAIL FELL BRIEFLY IN KAUFMAN.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>