Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
546 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
A DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE RESULTING
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LED TO STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...WITH 60+ KT AT 2000FT THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS IN THE
15-25 KT RANGE HAVE PRECLUDED THE NEED FOR A LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
GROUP IN AREA TAFS...THOUGH CONDITIONS CAME CLOSE AT TIMES DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. GFS LAMP IS
CURRENTLY ON THE HIGH END OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REGARDING SURFACE
WIND SPEEDS...INDICATING SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AROUND 25 KT WITH
GUSTS 30-35 KT IN THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA. WE WILL LIKELY STICK
WITH THE SLIGHTLY MORE CONSERVATIVE 20G30KT WHICH SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE...BEING THAT IT IS NEAR THE NAM MOS AND WELL ABOVE THE
ECM MOS NUMBERS.

DFW MAY ENCOUNTER AN HOUR OR SO OF GUSTY CROSSWINDS AROUND 00Z
THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. FROPA IN THE METROPLEX IS STILL EXPECTED AROUND 02Z /
04Z AT KACT / WITH NORTH WINDS 15 KT EXPECTED TONIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014/
HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF NORTH
TEXAS OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING BUT
ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY.
BELIEVE THAT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD SUFFICE FOR THE OVERALL
SKY COVER TODAY. A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS INTO THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY BRINGING AN ACCOMPANYING
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH INTO THE THE WESTERN PART OF NORTH TEXAS LATE
MORNING AND TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY MID AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN OVERTAKE THIS TROUGH THIS EVENING AND MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT SOUTH OR SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
OVER 35 MPH POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE COMBINATION
OF THE WIND...LOW HUMIDITIES /LESS THAN 25 PERCENT/ THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF I-35...AND DRYING FINE FUELS WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THUS WE WILL ISSUE A
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT /RFDFWD OR FNUS64 KFWD/ ALONG AND
WEST OF A SHERMAN TO DALLAS TO TEMPLE LINE FOR LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S
EAST TO THE MID 80S WEST.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY AND AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE REGION...
WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME SOUTHERLY. IT WILL BE COOLER
TOMORROW WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S BUT TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
MODERATE WITH 70S EXPECTED THURSDAY AND 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
EXPECTED FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH TEXAS AFTER SUNSET
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT SLOW ITS FORWARD PROGRESS AS IT MOVES SOUTH AND
IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES UNTIL MID
TO LATE SATURDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
SATURDAY NIGHT. WE WILL SEE AT LEAST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH LOWS NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S
AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. AT THIS TIME THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
THE RAINFALL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE HIGH AND QPFS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LOW.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81  43  64  43  74 /   5   5   5   5   0
WACO, TX              82  41  66  41  74 /   5   5   5   5   0
PARIS, TX             75  39  62  40  72 /   5   5   5   5   0
DENTON, TX            82  41  64  39  76 /   5   5   5   5   0
MCKINNEY, TX          80  41  64  39  72 /   5   5   5   5   0
DALLAS, TX            81  43  64  44  74 /   5   5   5   5   0
TERRELL, TX           77  41  64  40  75 /   5   5   5   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         78  43  65  42  73 /   5   5   5   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            82  43  66  42  75 /   5   5   5   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     85  39  65  40  77 /   5   5   5   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
311 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-190815-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
311 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TODAY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
SHERMAN TO DALLAS TO TEMPLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF NORTH
TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.