Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS Fort Worth, TX

645 
WGUS74 KFWD 180521
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1221 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

TXC027-180630-
/O.CON.KFWD.FF.W.0048.000000T0000Z-140918T0630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BELL TX-
1221 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 AM CDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL BELL COUNTY...

AT 1219 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED AN 
AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN NEAR HOLLAND...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH. 
THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF BELL COUNTY AS OF 1219 AM. 

RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATED THAT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN FELL ACROSS 
ISOLATED AREAS IN SOUTHERN BELL COUNTY. EVEN THOUGH ADDITIONAL HEAVY 
RAINS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED...THE RUNOFF FROM THE EARLIER HEAVY 
RAINS MAY STILL CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES IN SOME AREAS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY LOCALIZED FLOODING 
HEAVY RAIN INCLUDE HOLLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODS. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT AT NIGHT TO TELL HOW
MUCH WATER IS ON THE ROADS OR IF THE ROAD HAS BEEN DAMAGED OR WASHED
AWAY. TAKE A DIFFERENT ROUTE TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL
WATER RECEDES.

&&

LAT...LON 3078 9739 3088 9765 3104 9755 3096 9722
      3089 9725 3088 9726 3085 9727 3083 9729
      3076 9731

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1011 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA THIS EVENING AND SLOW MOVING STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL. LOCALIZED AREAS OF NUISANCE FLOODING OR POTENTIALLY
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT IN THE ABSENCE OF DECENT
LIFT AND A WEAK LLJ. ADJUSTED POPS AND TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS.

MORE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND CHANCES
FOR A HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL APPEAR TO BE INCREASING FOR
OUR SOUTHERN AND POSSIBLY SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. TODAY/S EARLIER
MODEL RUNS INDICATED A RICH MOISTURE AXIS PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOME WHERE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
THE BOUNDARY COULD BE NOTED IN THE FORECASTED THETA-E FIELDS AND THE
850-700 MB WIND FIELDS. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS VARIED ON THE LOCATION
OF THE THIS AXIS...THEY ALL HAD AN AXIS OF HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS
DEVELOPING SOME WHERE IN THE CENTRAL TEXAS AREA...GENERALLY AROUND
AND/OR SOUTH OF THE WACO AREA. WITH HIGH PWATS STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION...THIS RAISES SOME CONCERN FOR A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON THURSDAY. OUR NEIGHBORS TO
THE SOUTH ALREADY HAVE FLASH/FLOOD WATCHES IN PLACE. WE WOULD
LIKE TO SEE THE FULL 00Z MODEL SUITE BEFORE MAKING ANY FINAL
DETERMINATIONS OF THE NEED FOR AND LOCATION OF A WATCH. THE 00Z
NAM HAS NOW SHIFTED THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST
AND THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO ALSO SUPPORT THIS. THE MOST LIKELY
TIME FRAME FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR IS LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND WE FEEL WE HAVE SOME TIME TO SEE HOW
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TRENDS AND ALSO ANALYZE THE FULL 00Z
MODEL SUITE BEFORE MAKING ANY FINAL DECISIONS ON A FLASH/FLOOD
WATCH FOR TOMORROW.

82/JLD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 618 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/
THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST. THIS TYPICALLY YIELDS HOT AND MUNDANE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS IN THE SUMMER. HOWEVER...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
ODILE HAVE WORKED THEIR WAY NORTHEAST AND EAST FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS HAS
ESSENTIALLY WEAKENED THE RIDGE AND BROUGHT ABOVE-NORMAL AMOUNTS
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITHIN A SERIES OF SUBTLE
SHORTWAVES.

FOR AVIATION CONCERNS...THIS MEANS PERIODS OF SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CURRENTLY...SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE METROPLEX ARE BEING ENHANCED
BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS. THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
SHORT-LIVED THUNDERSTORM WILL EXIST AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...THEN THINGS SHOULD WIND DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF
SURFACE HEATING. ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING LATER IN THE WACO
AREA...BUT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR KACT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WORK THEIR WAY
SOUTH.

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN AFTER 03Z WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY IN PLACE...WE MAY ADD VCSH AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDER AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE LATEST MODEL DATA KEEPS
ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTHWEST AND AWAY FROM NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...AND THE MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF I-20 LATER THIS
EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
ACCOMPANY SOME OF THESE STORMS. A FEW GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH
THE STORMS BEFORE SUNSET.

WE WILL REMAIN IN A MOIST ATMOSPHERE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS PREVAIL WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS TEXAS. WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY
SOME OF THE STORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME...EXPECT THE MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO BE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA...THUS WILL NOT BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR OUR PART OF CENTRAL TEXAS AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
SHIFT MORE TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT AS THE UPPER LEVEL REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN ACROSS ALL OF
NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY. AS THE ODILE REMNANTS MOVE EAST...EXPECT A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE DOWN INTO LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN ZONES
AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING CHANCES INTO MONDAY SOUTH OF A
LAMPASAS TO ATHENS LINE. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  89  73  90  73 /  20  40  20  20  10
WACO, TX              72  86  71  89  70 /  60  70  20  30  10
PARIS, TX             71  88  68  89  69 /  20  30  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            72  89  70  90  70 /  20  30  20  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          72  89  69  90  69 /  20  30  20  10  10
DALLAS, TX            76  89  73  90  73 /  20  40  20  20  10
TERRELL, TX           74  87  70  89  70 /  20  40  20  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         73  86  70  89  70 /  30  50  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            69  86  71  89  70 /  60  80  20  40  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  87  69  88  69 /  30  50  20  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

30/82

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
951 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-190300-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
951 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-20 OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...MAINLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.THE MOST LIKELY REGION WOULD BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20 THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY SOUTH OF A LAMPASAS
TO ATHENS LINE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.