Flash Flood Warning 34, NWS Fort Worth, TX

689 
WGUS74 KFWD 170903
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
403 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

TXC497-171030-
/O.CON.KFWD.FF.W.0034.000000T0000Z-140717T1030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WISE TX-
403 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 AM CDT FOR
NORTHERN WISE COUNTY...

AT 401 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A 
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL CENTERED 8 MILES 
NORTHEAST OF DECATUR...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. VERY HEAVY RAINS HAVE 
ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY 
RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING THROUGH 530 AM CDT.

FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ALVORD AND COULD ALSO 
AFFECT HIGHWAY 287 NORTH OF DECATUR. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODS. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT AT NIGHT TO TELL HOW
MUCH WATER IS ON THE ROADS OR IF THE ROAD HAS BEEN DAMAGED OR WASHED
AWAY. TAKE A DIFFERENT ROUTE TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL
WATER RECEDES.

&&

LAT...LON 3343 9742 3343 9738 3338 9738 3338 9739
      3324 9739 3322 9780 3343 9779 3344 9742

$$

303 
WGUS74 KFWD 171008
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
508 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

TXC497-171030-
/O.CON.KFWD.FF.W.0034.000000T0000Z-140717T1030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WISE TX-
508 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 AM CDT FOR
NORTHERN WISE COUNTY...

AT 505 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF DECATUR...
MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. VERY HEAVY RAINS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS
THE WARNED AREA...AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING THROUGH 530 AM CDT.

A RAIN GAGE LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF ALVORD HAS REPORTED 4.91 
INCHES OF RAIN BETWEEN 2 AM AND 5 AM CDT. 

THE THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXCESSIVE RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 
PART OF WISE COUNTY...NORTH OF DECATUR AND EAST OF ALVORD. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODS. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT AT NIGHT TO TELL HOW
MUCH WATER IS ON THE ROADS OR IF THE ROAD HAS BEEN DAMAGED OR WASHED
AWAY. TAKE A DIFFERENT ROUTE TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL
WATER RECEDES.

&&

LAT...LON 3343 9742 3343 9738 3338 9738 3338 9739
      3324 9739 3322 9780 3343 9779 3344 9742

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1152 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014

.AVIATION...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL OCCUR AT THE NORTH
TEXAS TERMINALS DURING THIS TAF FORECAST. ON GOING CONVECTION
NORTH OF THE METROPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND
ACROSS THE METROPLEX TERMINALS 07-12Z WHILE UPSTREAM CONVECTION
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
WILL BEGIN ANOTHER WAVE OF CONVECTION /MCS/ ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR CIGS DURING ANY OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION AND COULD LAST THROUGH 12Z BEFORE IMPROVING. EXPECTING
VFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THURSDAY...THEN BECOMING MVFR TO IFR
THURSDAY NIGHT AS NEAR CONTINUOUS CONVECTION PREVAILS.

ALTERNATE TERMINALS SHOULD BE PLANNED FOR AS KDFW INBOUND TRAFFIC
WOULD BE IMPACTED BY CLUSTERS OF TSRA AT/NEAR THE CORNER POSTS.
UNSURE ABOUT A KDFW GROUND STOP...BUT ITS POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR
SO AT SOME TIME WITHIN THIS FORECAST...MOST LIKELY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OR THURSDAY EVENING.     75

&&

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY NEAR AND NORTH OF
THE RED RIVER...OTHER STORMS ARE BETWEEN CHILDRESS AND GRAHAM...
WITH AN ADDITIONAL COMPLEX OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT EXTENDS FROM OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES TO
NORTH OF JUNCTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS
GOOD. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE ONLY MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014/
MODELS STRUGGLED TODAY AND UNDERESTIMATED THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
RETURN...WITH 18Z FORECAST DEW POINTS GENERALLY 3-7 DEGREES BELOW
THE METARS. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR FROM JACKSBORO TO GRANBURY TO
CORSICANA. STORMS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE BETTER PRECIP STILL TO COME THURSDAY MORNING.

GUIDANCE DOES CONVERGE ON HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM ONE OR MORE MCS
OR MCS SEGMENTS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIP
THAT WE ARE EXPECTING. THERE MAY BE HEAVY RAIN SOUTHWEST INTO THE
BIG COUNTRY THAT MAY SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO REACH WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY AS WELL. HRRR HINTS AT THIS BUT TTU
WRF DOES NOT DEVELOP THIS SOUTHWESTERN FLANK.

THE SECOND ROUND IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...ALSO IN THE FORM OF SOME SORT OF MCS OR QLCS. THESE
STORMS WILL BE AIDED BY A SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE AND A PUSH FROM
THE COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY.
PRECIP WILL SHUT DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN TO OUR WEST.

THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN THE EAST AND HAVE LEFT THE
20 POPS THERE. CONDITIONS LOOK DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST. THERE MAY HAVE TO BE LOW POPS ADDED NEAR MID WEEK FOR A
POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...BUT THERE IS NO CONSENSUS ON IT YET. 84

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  88  73  87  73 /  70  80  80  50  10
WACO, TX              75  89  75  88  72 /  30  60  80  50  20
PARIS, TX             67  83  69  83  70 /  40  90  90  60  20
DENTON, TX            73  85  71  86  71 /  70  90  90  50  10
MCKINNEY, TX          71  86  72  86  70 /  60  90  90  50  10
DALLAS, TX            74  88  73  87  73 /  70  80  80  50  20
TERRELL, TX           72  89  73  88  71 /  50  80  90  60  20
CORSICANA, TX         73  89  73  86  72 /  30  60  80  50  20
TEMPLE, TX            74  89  75  86  73 /  20  50  60  50  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  86  70  85  70 /  80  80  80  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR TXZ091>095-101>107-117>123.

&&

75/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
329 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-171200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
329 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
A STORM OR TWO MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT...AND INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE EAST ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
VERY LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.