Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

784 
WWUS53 KFSD 162200
SVSFSD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
500 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

MNC033-063-162210-
/O.EXP.KFSD.SV.W.0093.000000T0000Z-140616T2200Z/
COTTONWOOD MN-JACKSON MN-
500 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR JACKSON AND SOUTHEASTERN
COTTONWOOD COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

LAT...LON 4357 9533 4390 9532 4402 9485 4362 9485
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 258DEG 66KT 4386 9463

$$

HANKO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
328 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THE PROCESS OF BECOMING
CONCENTRATED OVER THE EASTERNMOST PART OF THE AREA INTO THIS EARLY
EVENING. THIS INCLUDES EXPECTED NEW DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHWEST IOWA BY
THE END OF THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CONTINUED
AS IS FOR NOW WITH THIS EXPECTED NEW DEVELOPMENT AS RICH MOISTURE
WILL FEED THE NEW STORMS IN NORTHWEST IOWA. STORMS SHOULD THEN
DECREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF
THE NEW DEVELOPMENT AND STORMS IN THE CURRENT LINE LINGERING COULD
SLOW THE ENDING DOWN A BIT FROM FSD EAST AND SOUTH. IN ANY EVENT THE
LAST OF THE LINGERING STORMS SHOULD END A LITTLE AFTER 1 AM CDT AS
UPPER SUPPORT MOVES EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE
65 TO 70 RANGE WITH A WARM HUMID AIR FLOW AT LOW LEVELS...AND THIS
MEANS NOT TOO MUCH OF A DROP FROM SOME OF THE RAIN COOLED AIR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE EXTENT OF CLEARING LATE TONIGHT IS NOT CERTAIN DUE TO
THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST SOME LOW CLOUDS...AND A SOLID
DECK CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT INTRODUCE FOG INTO
THE FORECAST WITH ANY STRATUS NOT EXPECTED TO BE REAL LOW AND
PERHAPS AIDING THE PREVENTION OF FOG FORMATION...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH.

TUESDAY WILL BE A DAY MARKED BY WARMING...CAPPING...AND PERHAPS SOME
DRYING OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE
STRONGEST WARMING WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. THIS SHOULD BRING A MINIMUM
OF STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH WHAT DEVELOPS CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA...OR NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WILL GO WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. TEMPERATURES WILL DEFINITELY BE WARMER ACROSS THE
BOARD...IN SPITE OF MORNING STRATUS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO VARY FROM
THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH ONLY PART OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
MORE THAN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM 90 FOR HIGHS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
GET ON THE BREEZY SIDE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STORMS IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTH FOR TUESDAY
EVENING BUT THEY SHOULD STILL BE PRETTY SPOTTY. THE CAPPING FACTOR
WILL THE BE OVERCOME LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG
UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE SYSTEM MOVE IN. ALONG WITH THE PROLIFERATION
IN STORMS WILL COME A RETURN TO A DECENT...AND POSSIBLY
STRONG...SEVERE THREAT. TEMPERATURES AGAIN SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID
80S TO LOWER 90S WITH THE HEATING NOT LIKELY TO BE DESTROYED
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY WILL BE A COOLER DAY...BUT THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE WEST
TO NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL LINGER OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA...SO A MENTION OF STORMS IS
APPROPRIATE...ESPECIALLY EAST. THE COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR FLOW WILL
ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY COOLER AIR ALOFT...THUS THE INSTABILITY.

CHANCES FOR STORMS IN A REGIME OF CLOSE TO OR VERY SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE QUESTIONABLE. THE
UPPER LOW PASSES BY TO THE NORTH FRIDAY. THE GFS THE SLIDES IT EAST
SOUTHEAST WITH A WEST NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE RIDGING
DEVELOPING. THE EC TAKES THE LOW MORE STRAIGHT EAST BEFORE TURNING
IT EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WOULD LEAVE ROOM FOR A
VERY MODEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS NORTH AND EAST FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS AGAIN SUNDAY WHEN SOME WARM ADVECTION
STARTS UP AGAIN. WILL GO WITH THAT FOR NOW IN THE UNCERTAIN
PATTERN...THE CHOICE IN A WET PERIOD LEANING TO THE WET. WILL KEEP
MONDAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER LOCALLY TO CEILINGS 2-3K FEET AND
VISIBILITIES 3-5SM IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA THROUGH
ABOUT 17/03Z. CONVECTION SHOULD END 03Z-06Z BUT AREAS OF CEILINGS
1-3K FEET AND VISIBILITIES 3-5SM/BR ARE EXPECTED AFTER 17/06Z TO

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR SDZ067-070-071.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR MNZ072-080-081-
     089-090-097-098.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR IAZ001>003-
     012>014-020>022-031-032.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
600 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ014-SDZ056-062-067-071-171100-
LYON-OSCEOLA-DICKINSON-SIOUX-OBRIEN-CLAY-PLYMOUTH-CHEROKEE-
BUENA VISTA-WOODBURY-IDA-LINCOLN-MURRAY-COTTONWOOD-NOBLES-JACKSON-
PIPESTONE-ROCK-DAKOTA-MOODY-MINNEHAHA-UNION-
600 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
IOWA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...EAST CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS...70 MPH
WINDS...AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 11 AM.

AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN VERY HIGH OR IN FLOOD STAGE
AFTER RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE FAILURE OF THE LOWER DAM AT BLUE
MOUND STATE PARK. FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE BIG SIOUX...SPLIT ROCK CREEK...PIPE STONE CREEK...THE ROCK
RIVER...THE LITTLE SIOUX AND WEST FORK DITCH UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
TUESDAY EVENING...AND ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.

HEAT INDICIES OF 95 TO 100 WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY AFTER 11 AM.

NEZ013-SDZ038>040-050-052>055-057>061-063>066-068>070-171100-
DIXON-BEADLE-KINGSBURY-BROOKINGS-GREGORY-JERAULD-SANBORN-MINER-
LAKE-BRULE-AURORA-DAVISON-HANSON-MCCOOK-CHARLES MIX-DOUGLAS-
HUTCHINSON-TURNER-BON HOMME-YANKTON-CLAY-
600 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE PRODUCING HAIL
TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...AND WIND GUST TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
TUESDAY EVENING...AND ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 7AM TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
427 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SW BALTIC             43.73N 96.78W
06/16/2014  M2.40 INCH       MINNEHAHA          SD   PUBLIC

            FELL IN TWO HOURS. FLOODING

&&

JSHEEHAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
430 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0427 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 WSW LAKEFIELD         43.65N 95.30W
06/16/2014  E65 MPH          JACKSON            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LOTS OF TREE BRANCHES DOWN

&&

JSHEEHAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
434 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 S LAKEFIELD           43.65N 95.17W
06/16/2014  E85 MPH          JACKSON            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JSHEEHAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
437 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0426 PM     HAIL             5 SSW TERRIL            43.24N 95.01W
06/16/2014  E1.75 INCH       CLAY               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ADAMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
440 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 SSE ELLSWORTH         43.45N 96.00W
06/16/2014  E60 MPH          LYON               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THREE INCH DIAMETER TREE BRANCHES DOWN

&&

JSHEEHAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
441 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0437 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NW LAKE PARK          43.49N 95.38W
06/16/2014  E60 MPH          DICKINSON          IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JSHEEHAN