Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

807 
WWUS55 KFGZ 061949
SVSFGZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1249 PM MST SUN JUL 6 2014

AZC005-025-062000-
/O.CON.KFGZ.SV.W.0005.000000T0000Z-140706T2000Z/
YAVAPAI AZ-COCONINO AZ-
1249 PM MST SUN JUL 6 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM MST
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL COCONINO AND EAST CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTIES...

AT 1245 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WEST FORK OF OAK CREEK...OR 10
MILES NORTH OF SEDONA...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
JUNIPINE RESORT...GARLAND'S OAK CREEK LODGE...SLIDE ROCK STATE
PARK...MILEPOST 380 ON HWY 89 A AND MANZANITA CAMPGROUND

LAT...LON 3485 11180 3502 11196 3514 11173 3500 11159
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 052DEG 10KT 3500 11178

$$

DB

265 
WWUS55 KFGZ 061956
SVSFGZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1256 PM MST SUN JUL 6 2014

AZC005-025-062005-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.SV.W.0005.000000T0000Z-140706T2000Z/
YAVAPAI AZ-COCONINO AZ-
1256 PM MST SUN JUL 6 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL COCONINO AND
EAST CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING OVER OAK CREEK 
HAS WEAKENED. HOWEVER THE STORM IS STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND 
SMALL HAIL WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCAL RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS.

LAT...LON 3485 11180 3502 11196 3514 11173 3500 11159
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 052DEG 10KT 3499 11180

$$

DB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST SUN JUL 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
ARIZONA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS RESIDES ACROSS AZ
TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ WAS 1.05 INCHES THIS MORNING WHICH IS
IN THE 95TH PERCENTILE. THE 12Z SOUNDING ALSO HAD ABUNDANT
INSTABILITY WITH A MIXED PARCEL SHOWING AROUND 700 TO 800 J/KG OF
CAPE AND IS ABOUT THE 80TH PERCENTILE. THE COMBINATION OF VERY HIGH
PW AND LARGE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION THIS MORNING SHOWS AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN WHICH IS PRODUCING A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
NRN AZ. GIVEN THIS SETUP EXPECT STORMS TO FORM ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF OF NRN AZ THEN SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WITH THE WEAK STEERING FLOW
ALOFT STORM MOTION WILL PROBABLY BE DRIVEN IN PART BY OUTFLOWS.

WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS...THE MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING.

MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUATION OF THE PATTERN WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN AZ FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD THIS
MORNING WITH BASES 5-7KFT AGL. SCT TO NMRS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
WITH ISOLD +TSRA THROUGH 03Z MONDAY. PRECIP COVERAGE DECREASING
SLOWLY THIS EVENING. PSBL MVFR/IFR VSBY/CIGS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. WIDESPREAD AND FREQUENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH DAY...SOME STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER ARIZONA. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC.........DB
AVIATION.......DL
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 AM MST SUN JUL 6 2014

AZZ004>018-037>040-070700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
1000 AM MST SUN JUL 6 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS ARIZONA
TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE TOWARDS LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEERING WINDS ALOFT ARE WEAK TODAY AND STORMS
WILL BE SLOW MOVING THUS THERE IS AN ENHANCED THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING
DUE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.