Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
950 AM MST SAT SEP 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD TODAY AS
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH THREATS INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
STORMS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGH COUNTRY
ELEVATIONS MAY SEE A LIGHT FROST MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STORM THREAT AND PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER IMPACT AREA IS
EVOLVING TO BE FOCUSED ALONG AND APPROX 100 MILES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST INTO EASTERN ARIZONA. SURFACE
HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BAND WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND LEAD TO A PERSISTENCE OF THE FRONTAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE NET EFFECT ON THE FORECAST...SOMEWHAT LESS
PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTIVE THREAT OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER
EASTERN COCONINO...APACHE...AND NAVAJO COUNTIES THIS MORNING...AND A
MORE FOCUSED IMPACT DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS IT MOVES TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST AND DISCUSSION HAVE THE
LARGE SCALE PICTURE HANDLED WELL...AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO THE GRIDS TO HANDLE SHORT-TERM WEATHER TRENDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /345 AM MST/...THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE THE APPROACHING STRONG STORM SYSTEM AND ITS IMPACTS
TO NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVERALL TIMING AND
IMPACTS BRING THE SEVERE THREAT INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THEN INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA BY LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THIS REASON...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 AM MST FOR COCONINO AND YAVAPAI
COUNTIES. THERE IS ALSO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR YAVAPAI...COCONINO
AND NORTHERN GILA  COUNTIES THROUGH 5 PM MST.

SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS BEING OBSERVED IN COCONINO...YAVAPAI AN
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY AT THIS TIME. SHEAR...AND INSTABILITY...AND
LARGE SCALE LIFT ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS
OF YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EAST INTO GILA/NAVAJO/APACHE COUNTIES.
SEVERE STORM THREATS WILL INCLUDE LARGE HAIL (GREATER THAN 1
INCH)...DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULE OUT...BUT
THE THREAT OF TORNADOES IS SMALL AND A TORNADO WATCH IS NOT
NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.

DEEP MOISTURE HAS MOVE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF ARIZONA
THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL BE MOVING VERY QUICKLY AT 35 TO 45
MPH...BUT TRAINING STORMS MOVING OVER THE SAME AREAS MAY LEAD TO
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WE RECOMMEND THE PUBLIC PAY
CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND
RECONSIDER OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH NAVAJO
COUNTY ...APACHE COUNTY...AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF GILA COUNTY IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL HAVE DIMINISHED.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
ARIZONA A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEST COAST. A DRY
AND COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER ARIZONA WILL BRING SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS...FOR THE MOST PART. THERE
MAY BE A FEW LINGER SHOWERS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER ON MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN AZ TODAY.
EXPECT WDSPRD CU/TCU/CB WITH BASES FROM 4-6KFT AGL. NMRS SHRA/ TSRA
ANS SCT +TSRA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STRONGEST STORMS MAY
CONTAIN DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60KTS. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY PRODUCE A TORNADO. FREQUENT MVFR CONDITIONS AFT 11Z-13Z...WITH
SOME IFR/LIFR IN THE HEAVIEST STORMS. STORM MOTIONS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH 20 30 MPH. AFT 03Z SUN...PRECIP COVERAGE DECREASING WEST OF A
PAGE TO PRESCOTT LINE...AREAS OF BKN020 CIGS REMAIN. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 507 IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 AM MST FOR
AZC005-025.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR AZZ004-005>009-015-
016-018-037-038.
&&

PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

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