Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
340 PM MST MON JUL 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS ARIZONA
THROUGH TUESDAY SO EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS A A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS EXPANDS OUTWARD FROM SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA. FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE PONDEROSA FOREST WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WIND STREAMLINES SHOW MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
UTAH TODAY WILL MOVE TO SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED.

STARTING WEDNESDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS GFS SHOW SIGNIFICANT DRYING
AND A STABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH DECREASING MOISTURE ELSEWHERE. WE ARE EXPECTING A SHARP
DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE IN YAVAPAI COUNTY WEDNESDAY WITH
SCATTERED STORMS ELSEWHERE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA
WILL BRING IN MUCH DRIER AIR. GFS LIFTED INDEX VALUES INDICATE
STRONG STABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIP CHANCES WERE CUT FOR ALL
AREAS...THE EXPECTATION NOW IS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS OVER
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS IN THE
PONDEROSA FORESTS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE DRY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE
WARMING GIVEN THE STRENGHTEN OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WE HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...TIL 03Z...SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR VIS UNDER
STRONGER STORMS WEST OF A LINE FROM KPAN-KFLG-KGCN. SHRA/TSRA
DIMINISHING AFTER 03Z. EXPECT A ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHRA/TSRA AFTER 17Z TUE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.
CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS BEST ON TUESDAY...WITH GOOD
CHANCES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ON WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......RR
FIRE WEATHER...RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
351 AM MST MON JUL 14 2014

AZZ004>018-037>040-150700-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
351 AM MST MON JUL 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...
NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. IMPACTS INCLUDE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL AND AREAS OF
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50 MPH. STORM MOVEMENT TODAY IS FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR STORMS TREND LOWER EACH DAY STARTING
THURSDAY AS MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASE.