Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH TO A LESS
FAVORABLE POSITION...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A DOWNWARD TREND FOR
STORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCREASING ACROSS NRN AZ
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AND THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOCAL ENHANCEMENT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH
MARGINALLY SEVERE LEVELS WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. OTHERWISE...MOST
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY WITH ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO ROTATE NORTH INTO NRN AZ LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AGAIN ENHANCING AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER AZ TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK
POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A DOWNWARD TREND IN STORM ACTIVITY. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE READINGS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES MAY
PRODUCE OVERNIGHT MVFR VSBY IN THE VICINITY OF KGCN/KFLG/KSEZ. SCT
SHRA/TSRA WITH ISOLD +TSRA WILL CONTINUE THRU EARLY EVENING. MVFR
VSBY AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 35KTS PSBL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC.........DB/JJ
AVIATION.......DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF