Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Watches in 2014
Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this flash flood watch at Jul 15, 2014, 8:33 AM MST for Coconino County, Yavapai County, Arizona. It took effect at Jul 15, 2014, 9:00 AM MST. It was in force for 11 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 15, 2014, 8:33 AM MST (15:33 UTC)
- In effect from
- Jul 15, 2014, 9:00 AM MST
- Expired
- Jul 15, 2014, 7:48 PM MST
- In force
- 11 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Flood severity
- None
Counties Coconino County, AZ, Yavapai County, AZ
The radar
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 113 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 3.6 hours before the alert went out and 33 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 188 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -131 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1141 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 2 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 7 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 95 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Jul 14, 3:40 PM MST, 16 hours 53 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 14, 3:40 PM MST, 16 hours 53 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 340 PM MST MON JUL 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS...DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY SO EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS A A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS EXPANDS OUTWARD FROM SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA. FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PONDEROSA FOREST WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. && .DISCUSSION... WIND STREAMLINES SHOW MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER UTAH TODAY WILL MOVE TO SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. STARTING WEDNESDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS GFS SHOW SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND A STABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING MOISTURE ELSEWHERE. WE ARE EXPECTING A SHARP DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE IN YAVAPAI COUNTY WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED STORMS ELSEWHERE. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA WILL BRING IN MUCH DRIER AIR. GFS LIFTED INDEX VALUES INDICATE STRONG STABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIP CHANCES WERE CUT FOR ALL AREAS...THE EXPECTATION NOW IS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS IN THE PONDEROSA FORESTS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE DRY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMING GIVEN THE STRENGHTEN OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WE HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS FOR NOW. && .AVIATION... FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...TIL 03Z...SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR VIS UNDER STRONGER STORMS WEST OF A LINE FROM KPAN-KFLG-KGCN. SHRA/TSRA DIMINISHING AFTER 03Z. EXPECT A ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA AFTER 17Z TUE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER... MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS BEST ON TUESDAY...WITH GOOD CHANCES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ON WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && PUBLIC.........DL AVIATION.......RR FIRE WEATHER...RR FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
The office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 14, 5:22 PM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | FGZ | Yavapai | 4 hr |
| Jul 14, 5:47 PM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | FGZ | Yavapai | 118 min |
| Jul 15, 8:52 AM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | FGZ | Coconino, Yavapai | 53 min |
| Jul 15, 1:54 PM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | FGZ | Coconino | 111 min |
Nearby
Flash Flood Watches in Arizona, 2014Every flash flood watch in 2014
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.