Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

293 
WGUS75 KFGZ 162103
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
203 PM MST TUE SEP 16 2014

AZC025-162230-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0019.000000T0000Z-140916T2230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
YAVAPAI AZ-
203 PM MST TUE SEP 16 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM MST FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY...

AT 151 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER 
THE THE BURRO CREEK DRAINAGE IN WESTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY. STORMS WERE 
MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST ABOUT 5 MPH. 

THIS FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS FOR THE ENTIRE BURRO DRAINAGE DOWN TO 
ITS CONFLUENCE WITH BOULDER CREEK. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE 
ROADWAY. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP 
VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE 
SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3445 11254 3445 11248 3405 11251 3409 11266

$$

41

232 
WGUS75 KFGZ 162110
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
210 PM MST TUE SEP 16 2014

AZC025-162118-
/O.CAN.KFGZ.FF.W.0019.000000T0000Z-140916T2230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
YAVAPAI AZ-
210 PM MST TUE SEP 16 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
YAVAPAI COUNTY...

AT 205 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD WEAKENED OVER 
THAT HASSAYAMPA RIVER DRAINAGE IN SOUTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY. FLASH 
FLOODING IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. 

LAT...LON 3445 11254 3445 11248 3405 11251 3409 11266

$$

41

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 AM MST TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR TODAY...SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF I-40...WITH THE
LEAST COVERAGE NEAR THE UTAH BORDER. DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING AND
POTENTIALLY PROLONGED PRECIPITATION. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 ON BOTH OF THOSE DAYS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND AS MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND DISCUSSION BELOW COVERS WX
SITUATION WELL. LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD IS ALONG A LINE
FROM GALLUP TO FLAGSTAFF TO PRESCOTT WITH CLEAR SKIES NORTHWARD.
RADARS SHOW A BAND OF STEADY PRECIP ACROSS SRN AZ INTO NEW MEXICO
NOW...THIS BAND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MOGOLLON RIM
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION 335 AM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY BREAKING
OUT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP MOISTURE GRADIENT APPROACHING
CENTRAL ARIZONA. THIS GRADIENT AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF
ODILE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONGER CONVECTION TODAY...WHICH SHOULD
BE LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR FOR OUR CWA.
BEHIND THIS GRADIENT...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH ODILE...AS WELL AS SOME MID-LEVEL WARMING AND SUBSIDENCE. THIS
MAY AFFECT OUR ABILITY TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD AND FREQUENT SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
OCCURRING.

CURRENT MODELS TRENDS AND OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE MOVING EASTWARD
WITH ODILE...WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD PRIMARILY AFFECTING SE
ARIZONA. IN ADDITION...THIS TRACK MAY GENERATE SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY
OR NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH MAY IMPORT DRIER AIR FROM
THE NORTH. THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR THESE TRENDS...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG CONVECTION
TODAY...THAT IS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE WATCH TIME FRAME.

AFTER ODILE EXITS THE SOUTHWEST LATER THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT ON A NEW TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST BY NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS MAY OR MAY NOT DRAW DEEP MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA
WHERE IT WILL THEN INTERACT WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME
SHEAR. GFS DEPICTS THIS AS POSSIBLY A MORE SERIOUS SITUATION THAN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE ECMWF TAKES THIS NEW LOW AND RETROGRADES
OUT TO SEA...AWAY FROM ARIZONA. TIME WILL TELL ON THIS AND WE HAVE
LEFT SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND UNTIL THE
SITUATION BECOMES A BIT MORE CLEAR.

&&

FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT AFTERNOON TSRA/SHRA PREDOMINANTLY OVER
HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MVFR/IFR CIG/VSBY AND SOME SMALL HAIL. EXPECT INCREASING LIGHT-MDT
RAIN ACTIVITY FROM THIS EVENING ONWARD AS WELL AS SOME LOW VFR
CEILINGS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY THROUGH 6 PM MST THURSDAY
FOR AZ PUBLIC ZONES 007-008-012>018-037-038.

&&

PUBLIC.........DL / PETERSON
AVIATION.......AT

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
731 AM MST TUE SEP 16 2014

AZZ004>018-037>040-171015-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
731 AM MST TUE SEP 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...
NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT AND TONIGHT

INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-40 CORRIDOR. STORM ACTIVITY NORTH OF I-40 WILL BE MORE ISOLATED
WITH THE LEAST AMOUNT OF COVERAGE NEAR THE UTAH BORDER.

TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
AND STORMS SOUTH OF MOGOLLON RIM TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER. LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DEEP MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM
MST WEDNESDAY THROUGH 6 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. SEE TEXT PRODUCT PHXFFAFGZ FOR DETAILS.

THE EXACT PATH AND TIMING ARE NOT CLEAR. PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES FOR CHANGES IN TIMING AND OR AREAL
COVERAGE AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.