Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

945 
WGUS75 KFGZ 072212
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
312 PM MST SUN SEP 7 2014

AZC025-072300-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0017.000000T0000Z-140907T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
YAVAPAI AZ-
312 PM MST SUN SEP 7 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM MST FOR
CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY...

AT 308 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF DOPPLER RADAR 
INDICATED THAT RAINFALL HAS ENDED IN THE PRESCOTT AREA. RIVER GAGES 
ON GRANITE CREEK ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING VERY HIGH WATER LEVELS AND 
OTHER AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE LIKELY RUNNING HIGH AS WELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3454 11251 3462 11250 3466 11242 3463 11236
      3453 11238 3451 11248

$$

256 
WGUS75 KFGZ 072258
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
358 PM MST SUN SEP 7 2014

AZC025-072303-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0017.000000T0000Z-140907T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
YAVAPAI AZ-
358 PM MST SUN SEP 7 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 400 PM MST FOR CENTRAL
YAVAPAI COUNTY...

RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE PRESCOTT AREA...AND FLOW ON NEARBY STREAMS 
AND CREEKS WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY RECEDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
HOURS. 

LAT...LON 3454 11251 3462 11250 3466 11242 3463 11236
      3453 11238 3451 11248

$$

KD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
940 AM MST SUN SEP 07 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE PLUME OF HIGH PW VALUES HAS ENTERED THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA...THE EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
ZONES ARE STILL A BIT DRIER. STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES SOUTHERLY
OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY...WHICH WILL KEEP PW ADVECTION LIMITED
TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA FOR TODAY. THE AIRMASS WE HAVE
TODAY WILL NOT CHANGE VERY MUCH...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES. A FAIR AMOUNT OF SC/CU HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED TODAY...WHICH
WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION HERE AND THERE...BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH BREAKS TO GET SOME HEATING GOING.

TODAY WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING CONVECTION WITH AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME LARGER PATCHES OF SC/CU/TCU WILL ALSO FORM WITH
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. BY TONIGHT...STREAMLINES
BEGIN TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY BY MONDAY.
THIS IS WHEN THE PW PLUME ADVECTS INTO ARIZONA AND WE SHOULD SEE THE
HIGHEST VALUES. THE PROBLEM IS THAT MCS ACTIVITY LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT TO OUR SOUTH...ALONG WITH LOWERING CLOUD DECKS/CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VERY THICK CLOUD COVER TOMORROW.
THIS WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME STRATIFORM RAIN.

BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A S/WV ENTERING THE GREAT BASIN WILL
INTRODUCE SOME DRYING...BUT ALSO COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...A BIT
OF SHEAR AND STRONGER FLOW. MCS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE NORTHWARD MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A RESULT...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.

HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MID-LEVEL DRYING WILL BE MORE
PRONOUNCED...BUT ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WHERE THE MOISTURE
VALUES WILL BE HIGHER. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATED THAT THE
MOISTURE POOL WILL NOT RETREAT TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH AND ANY RETURN
FLOW FROM THE SOUTH LATER THIS WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND MAY BRING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BACK INTO THE AREA.

GRIDS LOOK GOOD THIS MORNING...NO UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING WITH WIDESPREAD CEILINGS LOWERING TO NEAR 12 KFT MSL.
AREAS MVFR/LOCAL IFR WITH STRONGER STORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO STAY FAIRLY ACTIVE OVERNIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 AM MST SUN SEP 07 2014

AZZ004>018-037>040-081100-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
945 AM MST SUN SEP 07 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...
NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF FLAGSTAFF THIS MORNING
WITH GIVE WAY TO MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND GENERALLY WEST OF
THE I-17 CORRIDOR. AREAS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST WILL SEE MAINLY
SCATTERED COVERAGE. SOME STORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF FLAGSTAFF.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

EXPECT A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY TONIGHT NORTHEAST OF FLAGSTAFF TOWARD
THE FOUR CORNERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
ACTIVE SOUTH AND WEST OF FLAGSTAFF.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VERY HIGH AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
SHOULD BRING NUMEROUS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MUCH OF THE AREA. DUE TO THE DURATION OF THIS EVENT...SOME AREAS MAY
EVENTUALLY EXPERIENCE SOME FLOODING...AS RAINFALL TOTALS RANGE FROM
1 TO 4 INCHES. THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF A
LINE FROM PAGE TO PAYSON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.