Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

793 
WGUS75 KFGZ 192210
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
310 PM MST TUE AUG 19 2014

AZC025-192300-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-140819T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
YAVAPAI AZ-
310 PM MST TUE AUG 19 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM MST FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY...

AT 308 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED 
AREA. 

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CONGRESS

WEATHER SPOTTERS NORTH OF WICKENBURG INDICATED THE HASSAYAMPA RIVER 
WAS RUNNING BANKFULL THIS AFTERNOON. 

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...WEAVER 
CREEK...ANTELOPE CREEK...MARTINEZ WASH...HASSAYAMPA RIVER AND 
MARTINEZ CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED 
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3419 11271 3400 11276 3400 11280 3408 11285
      3417 11285

$$
41

535 
WGUS75 KFGZ 192252
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
352 PM MST TUE AUG 19 2014

AZC025-192301-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-140819T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
YAVAPAI AZ-
352 PM MST TUE AUG 19 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 400 PM MST FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MARTINEZ WASH AREA NORTH OF 
WICKENBURG WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 400 PM MST. 


LAT...LON 3419 11271 3400 11276 3400 11280 3408 11285
      3417 11285

$$

41

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RESULTING MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER ARIZONA WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO FRIDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING.

&&
.DISCUSSION...A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING WITH RAINFALL RATES UP TO AN
INCH AN HOUR IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. SOME NORMALLY DRY WASHES ARE
FLOODING THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY. STORMS JUST SOUTH
OF YAVAPAI COUNTY APPEAR TO BE TRAINING--BUILDING OVER THE SAME AREA
AND RAINING ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS--AND MOVING INTO YAVAPAI
COUNTY. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST. HAVE
UPDATE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE POPS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /330 AM MST/...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN UP FROM THE SOUTH ON THE WINGS OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT...WE ARE LOOKING FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY.

FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE LOW CENTER APPROACHES
ARIZONA...UPWARD MOTION AND COOLING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AND INTERACT WITH THE COOLING AIR
MASS TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
EMBEDDED IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME FLOODING CONCERNS.

FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...MUCH DEPENDS ON THE PROGRESS OF THE
CALIFORNIA LOW. TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN MODELS. THE
GFS BRINGS A FAIRLY STRONG UPWARD MOTION BULLSEYE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS
THE UPWARD MOTION MAXIMUM THROUGH FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY DOWNPLAYING ANY CONNECTION BETWEEN THIS UPWARD
MOTION MAXIMUM AND MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS A FAIRLY
COMMON LOOKING PRECIPITATION FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF A TAP IS MADE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE JUST TO THE SOUTH WATCH OUT.

IN ANY EVENT...KEEP ABREAST OF THE SITUATION. STRONGER STORMS THIS
WEEK WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH TODAY. AREAS OF MVFR WILL BE COMMON WITH
ISOLATED IFR DUE TO PRECIP AND OR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. DECREASING
PRECIP COVERAGE AFTER 03Z BUT STRATUS WITH MVFR TO PERSIST. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC.........MAS/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
407 AM MST TUE AUG 19 2014

AZZ004>018-037>040-200700-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
407 AM MST TUE AUG 19 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...
NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS
TODAY WILL BE HEAVY RAIN...LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH
A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING MAKE IT IMPORTANT TO STAY TUNED TO FOR ANY UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
850 AM MST TUE AUG 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WSW CORDES            34.29N 112.20W
08/19/2014  M3.02 INCH       YAVAPAI            AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3 NORTH OF CLEATAR. WASHES FLOODED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1400067

ML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
853 AM MST TUE AUG 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0831 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 E CORDES              34.30N 112.11W
08/19/2014  M1.76 INCH       YAVAPAI            AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER OVER ROAD ACROSS BIG BUG CREEK. ABOUT 1 FOOT
            DEEP.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1400068

ML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
908 AM MST TUE AUG 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 AM     HEAVY RAIN       BLACK CANYON CITY       34.06N 112.11W
08/19/2014  E3.00 INCH       YAVAPAI            AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROCK SLIDES. DEBRIS FROM HEAVY RAINS I-17 MILE MARKER
            250-242.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1400069

ML