Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

432 
WGUS75 KFGZ 130133
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
633 PM MST TUE AUG 12 2014

AZC025-130200-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-140813T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
YAVAPAI AZ-
633 PM MST TUE AUG 12 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM MST FOR
CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY...

AT 629 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE RAIN FALLING OVER THE WARNED AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES FROM 
RADAR INDICATE THAT AREAS OF 2 INCHES TO LOCALLY MORE THAN 5 INCHES 
OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO YAVA AND 
MILEPOST 10 ON SR 96.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...
LITTLE SHIPP WASH...SANTA MARIA RIVER...BLAND CREEK...KIRKLAND
CREEK...TANK WASH...LITTLE SYCAMORE WASH...QUAIL SPRING WASH...BIG
SHIPP WASH...SYCAMORE CREEK...TANK CREEK...EASTWOOD CREEK...ALKALI
WASH AND WATERMAN CREEK.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3454 11307 3456 11281 3440 11281 3443 11307

$$

MCS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST TUE AUG 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THUS
EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
STARTING THURSDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR INTO
NORTHWEST ARIZONA...WITH DECREASING STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE KAIBAB
PLATEAU. THE DRY AIR SPREADS EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND IS
CURRENTLY LOOKING DRY FOR ALL EXCEPT AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN
MOGOLLON RIM WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED AS EXPECTED WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES UP BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA AS COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A
GRADUAL TAPER IN MOISTURE AND SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TODAYS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER FROM THE
MEXICAN BORDER NORTHWARD INTO UTAH. THESE CLOUDS WILL TEND TO LIMIT
SURFACE HEATING WHICH IS A NEEDED TRIGGER TO PRODUCE DEEPER
CONVECTION. IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG SURFACE HEATING WE TYPICALLY
NEED SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM A DISTURBANCE ALOFT. TODAY
WE HAVE NEITHER STRONG SURFACE HEATING NOR SIGNIFICANT FORCING
ALOFT...WHICH MEANS WE WILL LIKELY HAVE LOWER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
THAN THE DEEP MOISTURE ALONE MIGHT SUGGEST. THEREFORE WE ARE
FORECASTING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

SOME OF THESE SHOWERS TODAY AND TOMORROW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
AN ELEVATED RISK FOR LOCAL FLASH FLOODING. HOWEVER THE FLASH
FLOODING RISK IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH AT THIS TIME
MAINLY DUE TO THE LACK OF A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM. BY WEDNESDAY A
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ARIZONA MAY CHANGE THE PICTURE AND BRING THE
UPPER LEVEL FORCING NEEDED FOR DEEPER CONVECTIVE STORM ACTIVITY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WE START TO TRANSITION TO A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN AS A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WEST BEGINS TO BRING DRIER
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS REPLACING THE DEEPER MOISTURE. GOOD CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAIN
REGIONS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHARP
DOWNWARD TREND IN STORM ACTIVITY AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PINS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE MEXICAN BORDER. THE WEST TO
EAST ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL EFFECTIVELY BLOCK ANY
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE TROPICS AND INSTEAD BRING IN
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR IN FROM THE PACIFIC. EXPECT MUCH LOWER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT WDSPRD SHRA/TSRA THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SCT/ISOLD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
351 PM MST TUE AUG 12 2014

AZZ004>018-037>040-130700-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
351 PM MST TUE AUG 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...
NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE.
STORM MOTION WILL GENERALLY BE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. LOCALLY HEAVY
PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ON WEDNESDAY...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.

THURSDAY ONWARD...DRIER WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO ARIZONA FROM
THE WEST SLOWLY DECREASING STORM CHANCES EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

RB