Wind Chill Advisory 12, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
256 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONCERN CLOUD TRENDS/TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE AS CLOUDS...AT TIMES NOT HANDLED WELL BY MODEL
GUIDANCE...WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.

COLD FRONT ALONG AN HCO/GFK/JMS LINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION OVER DVL BASIN WHERE
FALLING TEMPERATURES OCCURRING AND WILL FOLLOW FRONT THROUGH THE
FA. MESOSCALE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN GRADUALLY CLEARING
LOWER CLOUDS OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME
SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS SD CLIPPING THE
SOUTHERN FA. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH WILL STAY THE WARMEST. FARTHER NORTH COMBINATION OF
CLEARING...COLDER COLUMN AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF INTO THE TEENS TO LOCALLY 20 BELOW
TONIGHT. COMBINED WITH A MODEST BREEZE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL
BE NEEDED FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH.

WEAK COLD ADVECTION LEVELS OFF TUESDAY AM AND WITH POTENTIAL SOLAR
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BLO ZERO.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE FA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS COULD BE COLDEST NIGHT BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS. MODEL TIME SECTIONS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH COULD LIMIT A BIG DROP. WITH
CLOUD COVER UNCERTAINTY HELD PRETTY CLOSE TO INHERITED
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA AND MORNING
LOWS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH WE RECOVER DURING THE DAY. FOR SURE
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

SURFACE HIGH DROPS INTO CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WESTERLY
FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURE DROP.

THURSDAY MAY BE A BIT WARMER BUT STILL ON THE COLD SIDE OF
AVERAGE.

NW FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
A DRY UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ANY CLOUDS
THAT CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL HAVE A
PLEASANT IMPACT ON OVERNIGHT LOWS IF WE CLOUD UP. CLEAR NIGHTS WILL
LIKELY SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014

WILL SEE SOME LOW VFR AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH CLEARING MOVING IN LATE THIS AFTN AS A RIDGE AXIS MOVES
THROUGH. THINK THAT THE CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH MORE LOW
VFR/UPPER MVFR RANGE CIGS MOVING IN AFT MIDNIGHT AS CLOUDS OVER SASK
ADVECT SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST TUESDAY
     FOR NDZ027>030-038-039.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026-054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST TUESDAY
     FOR MNZ001>003-005-006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027-028-
     030>032.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY
     FOR MNZ004-007.

&&

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER