Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
233 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 492 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7AM FOR THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF CWFA. AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED A VERY STRONG...FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER UP HERE...SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO HAS DEVELOPED AND
WILL IMPACT THE CWFA THROUGH 12Z TO 15Z. CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WITH 60 TO 70 KTS BULK SHEAR...0-1KM
CAPE TO 2000 J/KG AND 700 MB WAA. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE
MAIN RISK...BUT HIGH VGP IN THE LOWER 0 - 3 KM LAYER AND PRESENCE
OF SHARP BOUNDARY SUPPORT ISOLD TORNADOES.

STORMS SHIFT QUICKLY EAST BY 18Z. DRY SLOT MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SO THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS CONFINED TO OUR
EASTERN AND NORTHERN CWFA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE LOW MAY GUST TO NEAR 30 KTS...
BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WRAP AROUND RAIN/SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT MAINLY NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY 18Z - 06Z
FRIDAY.

FOR FRIDAY THE AREA SHOULD BE UNDER BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SHOULD BE QUIET WEATHER AS SURFACE
HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING. WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
BRING A WARMING TREND AND SOME CHANCES OF PRECIP BY MONDAY AS SOME
MOISTURE RETURN OCCURS. BY MID WEEK...THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP DRAG A
PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE CWA. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
PRECIP CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
USED THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT EACH TAF SITE FOR AT
LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. THE STRONG ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...AND MAY AFFECT KFAR. BEHIND THIS
PRECIP...ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS.
THEN...VFR CONDITIONS AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY (AND GUSTY).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...EWENS
LONG TERM...EWENS/JR
AVIATION...TG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
556 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2014

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-041045-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
WESTERN WALSH-
556 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

JR/TG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
219 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2014

MNZ002-003-NDZ029-030-039-040815-
CASS ND-CLAY MN-NORMAN MN-STEELE ND-TRAILL ND-
219 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CLAY AND WESTERN NORMAN
COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND SOUTHERN TRAILL...EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN STEELE AND NORTHERN CASS COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA UNTIL 315 AM CDT...

AT 217 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
THUNDERSTORM 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF CASSELTON...OR 31 MILES NORTHWEST
OF FARGO...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

THE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
ARTHUR AND AMENIA AROUND 225 AM CDT.
HUNTER AROUND 230 AM CDT.
PROSPER AROUND 235 AM CDT.
HARWOOD...GRANDIN AND GARDNER AROUND 245 AM CDT.

FOR MOTORISTS ON INTERSTATE 29...THE STORM WILL BE BETWEEN...MILE
MARKER 81 AROUND 245 AM CDT...AND MILE MARKER 99 AROUND 250 AM CDT...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IF THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND BECOME
SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4749 9655 4694 9632 4693 9757 4719 9766
TIME...MOT...LOC 0719Z 247DEG 33KT 4712 9734

JR