Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Grand Forks, ND

739 
WWUS53 KFGF 212155
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
455 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

NDC019-067-212230-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0045.000000T0000Z-140721T2230Z/
CAVALIER ND-PEMBINA ND-
455 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL
PEMBINA AND EASTERN CAVALIER COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 452 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OSNABROCK...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  OLGA AROUND 515 PM CDT.
  CONCRETE AND MOUNTAIN AROUND 520 PM CDT.
  WALHALLA AROUND 530 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM...ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
A BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS!

&&

LAT...LON 4860 9822 4866 9829 4872 9833 4900 9798
      4864 9768
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 235DEG 21KT 4870 9815

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

JK

382 
WWUS53 KFGF 212229
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
529 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

NDC019-067-212238-
/O.EXP.KFGF.SV.W.0045.000000T0000Z-140721T2230Z/
CAVALIER ND-PEMBINA ND-
529 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL PEMBINA AND
EASTERN CAVALIER COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 530 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
 HOWEVER...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

IN ADDITION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11PM.

LAT...LON 4860 9822 4866 9829 4872 9833 4900 9798
      4864 9768
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 235DEG 21KT 4881 9791

$$

JK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
316 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

CONVECTION TIMING AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE
FOR THE SHORT TERM.

STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN ND A FEW HOURS SOONER THAN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. A LITTLE BIT OF ACTIVITY HAS FIRED NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY IN THE UPPER DEVILS LAKE BASIN...BUT CONVECTION IN
THAT AREA HAS BEEN SUB SEVERE SO FAR. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE WITH THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE...BUT OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL BE UNDER THE GUN IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES CLOSER AND THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH ML CAPE ABOVE 3000 J/KG.
WITH A SFC BOUNDARY HANGING AROUND IN THE AREA...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL HELICITY TO GET STORMS TURNING IF THEY ARE
ISOLATED ENOUGH. THUS...TORNADO WATCH FOR OUR NORTHWEST EARLY ON
IN THIS EVENT.

LATER ON TONIGHT...THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A
COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE FEEDING
INTO THE COMPLEX AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE 70S...AND THE HIGHLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...STORMS SHOULD MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AS THEY MOVE
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND THEN INTO MN. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
AROUND 40 TO 50 KTS ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG AS NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO POINT
TO A BOW ECHO TYPE PATTERN...AND THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON
SHOWING HIGH WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH THE STORMS. SIGNS CONTINUE TO
POINT TO A MCS ARRIVING IN THE VALLEY THIS EVENING AND MOVING
EASTWARD INTO MN AFTER MIDNIGHT. DERACHO COMPOSITE ON THE SPC MESO
PAGE IS IN THE 6 TO 8 RANGE...SO WILL KEEP THE DAMAGING WIND TAGS
IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING.

THE OTHER THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
CRANK OUT BULLSEYES OF OVER 2 INCHES IN A VERY SHORT TIME
PERIOD. WITH PWAT VALUES UP TO 1.5 INCHES AND 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT CONTINUING TO PUSH MORE MOISTURE INTO OUR
COUNTIES...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SEEM REASONABLE. THE ISSUE
WILL BE WHERE IT FALL AND HOW LONG THE PRECIP WILL LAST. MANY OF
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
TRACK OF THE CONVECTION...WHICH WOULD TAKE IT ALONG THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE MOST WARM AND MOIST AIR. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL
BE THE MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS AS THE COMPLEX ACCELERATES ACROSS
THE CWA. SINCE THERE HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY WEATHER THE PAST FEW
WEEKS OVER THE VALLEY...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES FOR
NOW BUT HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE STORMS AS THEY APPROACH THE MN
LAKES COUNTRY LATER TONIGHT.

THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES TOWARDS TOMORROW MORNING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A DRYING
TREND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. TUESDAY
WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
LOW 80S AND DEW POINTS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP LOWS MUCH COOLER THAN
THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

WEDNESDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED
TIME FRAME. OVERALL TEMPS REGIME WILL BE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS WITH DRY WEATHER FEATURED MOST DAYS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
COMBINED WITH PREDOMINANTLY NW FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. THE EXCEPTION IS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND SUNDAY WITH CHC THUNDERSTORMS AS
RIDGING SHUNTS BACK TO THE WEST WITH POTENT SHORT WAVE RIDING OVER
THE TOP BRINGING INSTABILITY AND FORCING TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

MVFR FOR BJI WITH SLOWLY ERODING 1500FT DECK. ELSEWHERE VFR FOR THE
AFTN THEN SVR SQUALL LINE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING IMPACTING DVL AROUND 23-01Z GFK AND FAR 01-03Z AND TVF BJI
BY 02-04Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ039-049-052-053.

MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ003-029>032-040.

&&

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
634 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-221300-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
WESTERN WALSH-
634 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY AREA
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY TWO. DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY...WITH A TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE. SOME WIND
GUSTS COULD BE PARTICULARLY DAMAGING. INTENSE RAINFALL RATES ARE
EXPECTED...AND COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED AREAS OF VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

DANGEROUS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
419 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

NDZ007-008-212200-
CAVALIER ND-PEMBINA ND-
419 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME WESTERN PEMBINA AND
SOUTHEASTERN CAVALIER COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 417 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A THUNDERSTORM 14
MILES SOUTHWEST OF LANGDON...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

THE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
NEKOMA AROUND 430 PM CDT.
UNION...OSNABROCK AND MILTON AROUND 500 PM CDT.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IF THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND BECOME
SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 4872 9795 4872 9792 4856 9793 4855 9793
      4855 9863 4866 9866 4878 9795
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 260DEG 20KT 4859 9849

JK