Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1005 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR SEVERE
STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

CONVECTION CHANCES AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE
FOR THE SHORT TERM.

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...WITH
VARIOUS WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS ND.
ONE OF THE SHORTWAVES SHOULD HELP PUSH THE SFC TROUGH AXIS OUT
INTO CENTRAL ND BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE
CAPE VALUES GETTING ABOVE 3000 J/KG IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA. THE RAP
IS NOT NEARLY AS UNSTABLE...BUT STILL HAVE OVER 1500 CAPE IN SOME
SPOTS WHICH SHOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH TEMPS GETTING INTO THE 80S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT
AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY...BUT STILL AROUND 30 KTS. THIS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO GET SOME SEVERE CONVECTION GOING...MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-94 THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION SHOULD PROGRESS EASTWARD AS
THE SFC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND
PRECIP SHOULD HELP KEEP LOWS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE TO OUR NORTH...AND
WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE TO OUR EAST...BUT UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT THERE SHOULD
STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GET THUNDERSTORMS GOING AGAIN BY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPS SHOULD BE A TAD
BIT COOLER ON SUNDAY AND STAY MAINLY IN THE 70S IN THE WESTERN CWA AS
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS IN BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH. SLIGHTLY
WARMER FURTHER EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES DIGGING DOWN INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. CONTINUED TO KEEP 20 TO 50 POPS GOING FOR
CONVECTION AS WITH THE SHORTWAVES AND USUALLY DAYTIME HEATING WE
SHOULD SEE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
BIT OF A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH MONDAY AS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD. MAIN
ISSUE SURROUNDS THE UPPER LOW THAT IS TRAPPED TO THE NORTH OF THE
CWFA AND HOW IT EVOLVES. FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE UPPER
CIRCULATION IS MORE COMPACT AND ROBUST IN THE GFS/NAM/DGEX
DEPICTION. HOWEVER THE ECMWF/GEM-NH HANDLE THE UPPER AND SURFACE
SYSTEMS IN A SIMILAR FASHION. THIS UPPER LOW/COLD POOL WILL HELP
MAINTAIN A SHOWERY PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED. WHILE THE DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LIKELY THERMALLY ENHANCE CONVECTION...SYNOPTIC MODELS
CANNOT RESOLVE THIS WELL. HAVE OPTED TO BLEND RASH/TSRA MORE FOR THE
LATE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING PERIODS PER CLIMATOLOGY AND MODELS
SUGGEST A STABLE AIRMASS OVERNIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW AND CLOUDS
THE EXTENDED STARTS A TAD COOLER THAN NORMAL TURNING WARMER TOWARDS
WEEK END.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE BUT KBJI WHICH HAS ANOTHER MORNING OF
PATCHY FOG. CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING AS THIS IS TYPED AND ALL
SITES SHOULD VFR BY 12Z. HIGHER CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
AND SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. KEPT
THE VCTS MENTION AS IT IS UNCERTAIN IF CELLS WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT
TAF SITES AT THIS POINT. CONVECTION WILL END BY LATE EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

LOCAL RUNOFF FROM STRONG CONVECTION FRIDAY EVENING HAS CAUSED THE
SOUTH BRANCH OF THE BUFFALO AT SABIN TO CONTINUE RISING MORE THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. IT IS NOW EXPECTED TO CREST EARLY SUNDAY JUST
ABOVE MODERATE FLOOD LEVEL. THE UPDATED FORECAST IS ABOUT A FOOT
HIGHER DUE TO THE RUNOFF AND EXISTING FLOWS. DILWORTH JUST A TAD
AHEAD OF THE CURVE BUT WITHIN TOLERANCE...AND SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW
MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS. FARGO CLIMBED ABOVE THE MODERATE FLOOD LEVEL
NEAR MIDNIGHT ON ITS WAY TO NEAR 28 FEET. OSLO NEARING MODERATE
FLOOD STAGE ON ITS WAY TO 31 TO 32 FEET. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS ARE HANDLING CURRENT RIVER TRENDS WELL

AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL BELTRAMI
COUNTY WITH THE TAMARAC RIVER OUT OF ITS BANKS NEAR WASKISH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/EWENS
AVIATION...JR
HYDROLOGY...EWENS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
613 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-221115-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
WESTERN WALSH-
613 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW OF THE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BECOME SEVERE SOUTH OF THE
I-94 CORRIDOR. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL THE THE PRIMARY THREAT
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS IS FAIRLY LOW...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.