Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
237 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW EAST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA INDICATING
THE WEDGE IS STILL IN PLACE. DESPITE THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE WITH THE WEDGE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STILL BEEN ABLE TO MAKE IT
INTO NORTH GEORGIA. ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS ARE SEEING A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL GA...ANOTHER ROUND IS ALREADY MOVING
INTO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIP. THIS
NEXT ROUND WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN POPS DECREASING OVERNIGHT. HI-RES MODELS ARE
SIMILAR IN THAT THEY DO NOT CLEAR OUT ALL THE POPS OVERNIGHT AND
THUS HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.

BETTER INSTABILITY IS BEGINNING TO CREEP ITS WAY NORTHWARD WITH 500
J/KG JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA ACCORDING TO SPC MESOANALYSIS. IN
ADDITION....THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF LL WIND SHEAR WITH 40KTS
ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWA /CSG TO MCN TO LGR AREA/. WITH ENOUGH
CAPE COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES...THE SE PART OF THE CWA
IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE SEVERE WEATHER. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES
REMAINS AND A TORNADO WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA.
STILL THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER NORTH AND
EAST OF THE WATCH...WATCH AREA IS JUST MOST LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE TONIGHT...WILL SEE WARMER LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE LAST NIGHT OF THE
WARMER TEMPS AS THEY DIP BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR TUESDAY
MORNING...AFTER THE SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. WILL START
THE DAY TOMORROW WITH LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA BUT THIS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING. THIS WILL SLOW THE WARMING TREND MONDAY
MORNING...BUT WITH THE CLOUDS SCATTERING AND THE CWA REMAINING IN SW
FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S.
FOR CENTRAL GEORGIA...THIS IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

11

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE CWA WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIKELY POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE CWA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO REMAIN IN
THE FORM OF RAIN ACROSS NORTH GA...ALTHOUGH AT THOSE PEAKS ABOVE
3500 COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ECMWF IS SHOWING A FINGER OF MOISTURE SKIRTING THE EXTREME NORTHERN
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE THE GFS IS KEEPING THE CWA DRY. AT
THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT ANY PRECIP FOR EXTREME NORTH GA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND AS
THE H5 FLOW TRENDS TOWARD A ZONAL FLOW.

17

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE ALREADY SEEN UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA. HAVE NOT HAD ANY FLOODING ISSUES SO FAR. WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCH EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...COULD SEE LOCALIZED
FLOODING AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. THERES A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP AT MCN AND CSG BUT SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL RA
LATER. COULD SEE A SHORT BREAK AT NORTHERN TAF SITES TOO LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. TSRA COVERAGE IS LIMITED BUT WITH CONVECTION
MAKING IT FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED...HAVE CONTINUED TEMPO IN
THE ATL SITES. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT
HAVENT GONE QUITE AS LOW AS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AT ATL. WIND
SHIFT AT ATL IN THE 00-04Z TIMEFRAME.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WIND DUE TO WIND SHIFT TIMING. LOW CONFIDENCE
ON CIGS AND VSBYS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  70  41  57 /  90  20  10  10
ATLANTA         55  69  41  55 /  90  10  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     50  64  36  52 /  90  30  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    52  67  37  54 /  70  10  10   5
COLUMBUS        60  74  44  57 /  90  20  10  10
GAINESVILLE     52  67  41  54 /  90  20  10   5
MACON           60  76  44  58 /  80  30  10  20
ROME            52  66  35  55 /  60  10  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  53  69  38  56 /  90  10  10  10
VIDALIA         66  77  52  60 /  80  30  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRISP...DOOLY...MACON...MARION...
MUSCOGEE...PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...WEBSTER...
WILCOX.

&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
803 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-241015-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DE KALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
803 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS
IN THE NORTHWEST GULF. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE OVER GEORGIA
TODAY AS THIS FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE MOST
FAVORED AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM LAGRANGE TO FORSYTH TO WARRENTON. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. DUE TO THE
SATURATED GROUNDS...SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY ON TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
449 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MUSELLA                 32.80N  84.03W
11/23/2014                   CRAWFORD           GA   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES REPORTED DOWN IN CRAWFORD
            COUNTY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1400941

RWILLIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
459 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

GAZ071-072-081>083-094>096-105>109-232230-
DODGE GA-JONES GA-PEACH GA-WILCOX GA-HOUSTON GA-MONROE GA-PULASKI GA-
TWIGGS GA-BLECKLEY GA-CRAWFORD GA-CRISP GA-BIBB GA-DOOLY GA-
459 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN DODGE...JONES...
PEACH...WILCOX...HOUSTON...MONROE...PULASKI...TWIGGS...BLECKLEY...
CRAWFORD...CRISP...BIBB AND DOOLY COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EST...

AT 459 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES WEST
OF PAYNE CITY TO NEAR PERRY TO NEAR ARABI...AND MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THESE STORMS MOVE ACROSS DODGE...
JONES...PEACH...WILCOX...HOUSTON...MONROE...PULASKI...TWIGGS...
BLECKLEY...CRAWFORD...CRISP...BIBB AND DOOLY COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM
EST.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
MACON...PERRY...CORDELE...COCHRAN...HAWKINSVILLE...VIENNA...GRAY...
ABBEVILLE...JEFFERSONVILLE...WARNER ROBINS...CENTERVILLE...BYRON...
UNADILLA...ROCHELLE...ARABI...PINEVIEW...PINEHURST...PITTS...PAYNE
AND PAYNE CITY.

LAT...LON 3182 8373 3236 8380 3288 8391 3308 8349
      3240 8326 3184 8322 3185 8361 3180 8361
      3181 8373
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 267DEG 28KT 3289 8380 3239 8369 3182 8365