Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
354 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK TROUGH NOW SITUATED FROM
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. LOW CLOUDS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE WITHIN DEVELOPING WEDGE ON THE LEE
SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS HAS RESULTED IN OVERCAST LOW CLOUD
CONDITIONS NEAR THE ATHENS AREA. CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS BEEN
NON EXISTENT IN THIS AREA WITH BEST STORMS NOW FIRING ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE FRONT FROM FANNIN AND GILMER THROUGH ATL
AND BACK INTO PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. CAPE VALUES HAVE
INCREASED TO 2500 J/KG IN THIS ZONE AND OUT AHEAD OF IT AS WELL.
MAY MAKE SOME LAST MINUTE MODIFICATIONS TO POPS BASED ON THIS TO
INCREASE TO LIKELY AHEAD OF WEDGE FRONT.

SHOULD SEE AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAXED OUT IN MOST OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. EXPECT SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITY AS WELL BUT BASED ON LATEST CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICIT PROFILE...NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
EVENT AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO DROP FROM 2.2 INCHES OVER THE SOUTH TO MORE
LIKE 1.5 INCHES. THE NORTH WILL LIKEWISE SEE A DROP WITH 1.3
INCHES THE NORM. DESPITE THIS...WE WILL REMAIN IN AN UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TO INITIATE OR ENHANCE
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BECAUSE OF THIS...NOT
READY TO GIVE UP ENTIRELY ON POPS AS THE GUIDANCE DOES AND WILL
INSTEAD KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NORTH...TRANSITIONING TO MID
RANGE SCATTERED FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS.

DEESE

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. FLAT UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST INTO LATE WEDNESDAY AND HAVE PERSISTED
WITH A MAINLY DIURNAL PATTERN FOR POPS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO
SAG SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUES TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH KEEP THE FRONT A BIT SLOWER ON THE ECMWF.
HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
DRYING OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. HAVE
KEPT SOME LOW POPS OVER A PORTION OF CENTRAL GA AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD DUE TO SOME LINGERING MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES NOT AS HOT
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS COOLER EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS.

41

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
LOWER AND DENSER CLOUD DECK HOLDING ACROSS AHN AT THIS HOUR WHICH
IS LIMITING ANY SHRA OR TSRA DEVELOPMENT THERE. INSTEAD...STORMS
ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS CLOUD AREA...OR
JUST EAST OF ATL. EXPECT FURTHER ENHANCEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH
TSRA DEVELOPMENT REQUIRING INCLUSION OF A SHORT TERM TEMPO AT ALL
BUT AHN. FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...A RETURN OF A LOW CLOUDS WILL
OCCUR AFTER 09Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS VERY LIKELY AND A POSSIBILITY
OF LIFR AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AT MCN. OTHERWISE...SOME DRIER AIR
WORKING IN FOR TUESDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR LESS RAIN CHANCES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TSRA DEVELOPMENT.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          66  88  69  86 /  30  20  10  20
ATLANTA         69  85  71  87 /  40  20  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     61  81  63  82 /  50  20  10  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  86  68  87 /  20  20  10  20
COLUMBUS        72  88  72  90 /  70  30  20  20
GAINESVILLE     67  83  69  85 /  30  20  10  20
MACON           70  89  70  91 /  70  30  20  20
ROME            68  87  68  90 /  20  20  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  68  87  68  88 /  60  20  10  20
VIDALIA         72  89  71  91 /  70  40  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
440 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-090845-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
440 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD BE AT ANY TIME...BUT SHOULD BE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE
STORMS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WITH SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING
STORMS AND SOME ENHANCED DOWNBURST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MORE NUMEROUS
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AS A RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE
PERSISTING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD BE DIMINISHING OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO
SOME DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE STATE

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

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