Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
715 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COMBINATION OF WEAK RIDGING AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY...DIMINISHING AFTER 10 PM. MLCAPES CONTINUE TO BE
DECENT...WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AND ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT NECESSARILY ANTICIPATED
TODAY OR TUESDAY...AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STORMS
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY FIRE ALONG OLD BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO MID
WEEK. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE LOW TO MID 90S IN THE AFTERNOON.

31

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHERN STATES THRU SATURDAY. EVEN BY THE WEEKEND...NO
INDICATION OF STRONG PATTERN SHIFT OR AIRMASS CHANGE IN 12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE. MED RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT HEIGHT AND MOISTURE
FIELDS WHICH GET ABOUT AS CLOSE AS YOU CAN POSSIBLY GET TO MEDIAN
CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST OF SEPTEMBER. WARM DAYS AND NIGHTS WITH
APPROX 30PCT COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA...PERHAPS A
BIT HIGHER COVERAGE BASED ON MODEL MEAN RH FIELDS.

NOT SEEING ANY HIGH IMPACT...TROPICAL SYSTEMS OR PATTERN CHANGING
FEATURES IN MODEL FORECASTS. 12Z GFS DOES TAKE A TURN FOR A WARMER
PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER HIGH BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS...BUT THIS SOLUTION NOT CONSISTENT WITH PREV RUNS OR 12Z
ECMWF. REFRESHED TEMPS BASED ON 30DAY BIAS CORRECTED GRIDDED
BLENDED GUIDANCE AND LATEST HPC GUIDANCE. MOST OTHER FIELDS IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH ACCURATE DEPICTION OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IN POP
AND WX GRIDS.

SNELSON

PREV LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED 323 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-
WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON WEDNESDAY...BUT A
WEAK BOUNDARY MAY TRY AND SNEAK THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.
THE BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT IT SHOULD DIMINISH BY FRIDAY. A
SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT THE CWFA DURING THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE BOUNDARYS PROGRESSION DOWN.

OVERALL...NO REAL CHANGES NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. POPS WILL
MAINLY REMAIN DIURNAL IN NATURE. COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND WINDS
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH PATCHY MVFR VSBYS DUE TO
FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR CALM FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR FURTHER IMPACTS OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR VSBYS DURING THE EARLY MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  95  70  95 /  20  40  30  30
ATLANTA         73  93  73  90 /  30  40  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     65  88  66  86 /  20  40  30  40
CARTERSVILLE    70  94  68  91 /  30  40  20  30
COLUMBUS        74  96  74  92 /  30  40  20  40
GAINESVILLE     71  92  71  91 /  20  40  30  40
MACON           71  95  71  94 /  30  40  20  40
ROME            69  94  68  91 /  30  40  20  30
PEACHTREE CITY  69  92  68  91 /  30  40  20  30
VIDALIA         74  95  74  93 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...BDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
400 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-021200-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
400 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH AROUND 10PM THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS...SMALL HAIL...NUMEROUS LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
750 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

GAZ061-073-074-020015-
750 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN
WASHINGTON...BALDWIN AND HANCOCK COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

AT 748 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF BEULAH...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEMS INDICATE NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS WASHINGTON...BALDWIN AND HANCOCK COUNTIES...
INCLUDING AREAS AROUND UNDERWOOD...BEULAH...DEEPSTEP...WARTHEN AND
LINTON. RESIDENTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD STAY INDOORS. ELECTRICAL
APPLIANCES AND TELEPHONES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

&&

LAT...LON 3305 8273 3296 8310 3297 8311 3299 8312
      3301 8313 3301 8315 3312 8321 3328 8284
TIME...MOT...LOC 2350Z 249DEG 11KT 3307 8307

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
753 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

GAZ097-020030-
753 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN LAURENS
COUNTY UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

AT 748 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER DUBLIN...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEMS INDICATE NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS LAURENS COUNTY...INCLUDING AREAS AROUND
HARLOW...DUBLIN...EAST DUBLIN...BREWTON...MINTER AND LOVETT.
RESIDENTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD STAY INDOORS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES AND
TELEPHONES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

&&

LAT...LON 3248 8265 3246 8299 3264 8302 3269 8280
      3266 8279 3261 8267 3252 8268 3252 8265
      3249 8264
TIME...MOT...LOC 2353Z 261DEG 10KT 3257 8290