Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
357 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ELONGATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FIELD ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY...AND WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY REMAINING TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND
OHIO VALLEYS. AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE ALONG THE REMAINING BOUNDARY FROM
LAST NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS IN THAT REGION...AND CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LESS COVERAGE TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY /AND EVEN LESS TOMORROW/...SO HAVE TRIED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH POPS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT /AFTER
10 PM/. A FEW OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ACTIVITY
LINGERING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA UNTIL 06Z OR SO...SO HAVE DELAYED
REMOVING POPS ENTIRELY UNTIL AFTER THAT TIME.

WITH MLCAPE IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE AND DECENT DCAPE THE EAST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE...THINK THAT THE MAIN CONCERN IN ANY
STRONG STORMS WILL BE DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
PWS...ALTHOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...CONTINUE TO BE
ABOVE AVERAGE...WHICH WILL ALLOW SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING STORMS TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER LOCALIZED AREAS.

DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN
BEING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ONCE AGAIN. HAVE A GRADIENT OF SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM NORTH GEORGIA INTO THE SE CWA. TRANSITION
TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND NO DEFINED SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL RESULT
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
NO PARTICULAR AREA OF CONCERN.

HAVE GONE WITH A GUIDANCE BLEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY.

31

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME WITH
DOMINANT RIDGE ALOFT. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD LOOKS LIKE A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL HELP PUSH THE RIDGE WESTWARD
AND A SURFACE FRONT DROPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER THE FRONT
MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY. PREVIIOUS
DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

41

LONG TERM /415 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF
AREA FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK LEE TROUGH
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS NORTHEAST GA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE
PROGGING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO DROP DOWN ACROSS NORTH GA BY
MID-WEEK. CONVECTION DOESN'T SEEM TO BE ENHANCED ALONG THIS FEATURE
FOR NOW. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...PERSISTENCE IS
THE RULE WITH ISOLD/SCT POPS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE WEST. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS A
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
STARTING TO SEE SOME SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR NORTH
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN IN THESE AREAS AND LARGELY AVOID THE TAF SITES. WINDS HAVE
FINALLY SHIFTED TO THE SW AND EXPECT SPEEDS TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN CU WILL CONTINUE...AND MODELS SUGGEST
THAT MID LEVEL CLOUDS COULD PERSIST SOMEWHAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF AT LEAST SCT050 TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. VSBYS COULD BE RESTRICTED IN AREAS THAT
GET SIGNIFICANT OR LATE EVENING RAINFALL...BUT ON THE WHOLE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  95  71  95 /  20  20  10  30
ATLANTA         73  91  74  91 /  10  20  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     64  86  65  86 /  30  20  20  30
CARTERSVILLE    69  91  71  92 /  20  20  10  30
COLUMBUS        74  95  74  93 /  20  20  10  30
GAINESVILLE     71  91  72  91 /  20  20  10  30
MACON           71  93  71  94 /  20  20  20  30
ROME            69  92  70  92 /  30  20  10  30
PEACHTREE CITY  69  92  70  91 /  10  20  10  30
VIDALIA         74  93  74  94 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
347 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-012000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
347 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS AND HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MAINLY A DIURNAL PATTERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
330 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

GAZ085-312000-
330 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IN JOHNSON
COUNTY UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 323 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SPANN...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEMS INDICATE NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS JOHNSON COUNTY...INCLUDING AREAS AROUND
SPANN...NEW HOME...MEEKS...DONOVAN AND WRIGHTSVILLE. RESIDENTS IN
THIS AREA SHOULD STAY INDOORS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES AND TELEPHONES
SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

&&

LAT...LON 3260 8267 3262 8268 3266 8279 3269 8280
      3272 8287 3277 8289 3280 8278 3277 8276
      3279 8270 3278 8266 3281 8258 3261 8253
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 259DEG 4KT 3269 8276

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
342 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

GAZ074-312015-
342 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IN WASHINGTON
COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 338 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER DOWNS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEMS INDICATE NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY...INCLUDING AREAS AROUND
DAVISBORO...DOWNS...HAMBURG STATE PARK AND WARTHEN. RESIDENTS IN THIS
AREA SHOULD STAY INDOORS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES AND TELEPHONES SHOULD
NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

&&

LAT...LON 3291 8268 3309 8294 3324 8275 3322 8274
      3318 8274 3313 8266 3310 8264 3309 8264
      3303 8260 3303 8258 3301 8256
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 136DEG 5KT 3304 8268

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
356 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

GAZ076-312030-
356 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN JEFFERSON
COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 351 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER LOUISVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEMS INDICATE NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY...INCLUDING AREAS AROUND
STAPLETONS CROSSROADS...LOUISVILLE...STELLAVILLE...MATTHEWS AND
WRENS. RESIDENTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD STAY INDOORS. ELECTRICAL
APPLIANCES AND TELEPHONES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

&&

LAT...LON 3315 8226 3301 8228 3294 8240 3307 8255
      3327 8233 3319 8224
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 228DEG 4KT 3306 8239

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
421 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

GAZ076-312045-
421 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CONTINUED FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN
JEFFERSON COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 416 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER WRENS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO INDICATE NUMEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS JEFFERSON
COUNTY...INCLUDING AREAS AROUND WRENS...STELLAVILLE AND MATTHEWS.
RESIDENTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD STAY INDOORS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES
AND TELEPHONES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

&&

LAT...LON 3315 8226 3307 8228 3308 8246 3326 8246
      3327 8245 3328 8227 3327 8226 3325 8224
      3322 8223
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 271DEG 12KT 3317 8236