Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014/

.UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST MAINLY TO TREND HIGHER POPS ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE LINGERING WEDGE FRONT...THEN PUSHING FURTHER EAST
THIS EVENING PER THE CONSENSUS OF LATEST HI-RES SOLUTIONS. MORNING
CLOUD DECK ALLOWED FOR SOLAR SHELTERING AND IN-SITU REINFORCEMENT
OF THE WEDGE TODAY...DELAYING THE AFTERNOON CU FIELD AND
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING. HAVE THEREFORE ADJUSTED SKY COVER
ACCORDINGLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CONVECTION HAS FIRED UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A WARM LAYER
AROUND H5 IS DAMPENING THE AMOUNT OF THUNDER AS WELL AS THE STRENGTH
OF THE TSTORMS. THIS HAS BECOME MORE OF A BREATHING IN DAY FOR THE
ATMOSPHERE FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING WITH A DIMINISHING TREND AFTER SUNSET. ALL MODELS HAVE
THE NEXT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY. WITH NO
WARM LAYER EXPECTED SUNDAY AND WITH HIGHER CAPES...EXPECT MORE
THUNDER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE WEDGE THAT WAS IN PLACE THIS MORNING HAS EXITED ALL BUT THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE AS WINDS IN MOST AREAS HAVE GONE
SOUTHWEST. A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT KEEPING THE CWA IN THE UNSTABLE MOISTURE AIRMASS. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WEDGE MAY BUILD BACK INTO THE EXTREME NORTHEAST
AGAIN SUNDAY WHICH IS CREATING A PROBLEMATIC TEMPERATURES FORECAST
FOR THE GVL/AHN/NORTHEAST MOUNTAIN AREAS. AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH
A MAV/MET BLEND FOR THOSE AREAS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

17

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW. 12Z GFS MODEL RUN IS TRENDING CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
ALL-IN-ALL THESE TRENDS ARE WELL REPRESENTED IN THE CURRENT LONG
TERM FORECAST GRIDS AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOR THIS
UPDATE. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION
BELOW.

20

PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION/SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES A FRONT SHOULD GET PUSHED INTO GEORGIA ON TUESDAY. MODELS
SHOW DRIER AIR SINKING INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HAVE SHOWN MINIMAL POPS
FOR THE NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THE AIR MASS LOOKS STABLE
ENOUGH ON THURSDAY SO HAVE LEFT POPS OUT FOR NORTHERN ZONES.
GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE BEGINNING FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER NIGHTS
EXPECTED MID WEEK...AFTERNOONS MOSTLY IN THE 80S.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY NEAR KATL BRINGING GUSTY WEST
WINDS AND REDUCED VSBYS WITH RAIN FOR START OF PERIOD. ACTIVITY SHOULD
WANE THIS EVENING AND CIGS LOWER TO POSSIBLY IFR LEVELS AFTER 10Z
WITH MVFR VSBYS EXCEPT FOR KCSG HAVING SLIGHTLY HIGHER CIGS. WINDS
GENERALLY DECREASING TO LIGHT SW OR CALM OVERNIGHT THEN BACK TO
MAINLY WEST UNDER 10 KTS SUNDAY. KAHN LIKELY TO HAVE EASTERLY
WINDS FROM BACKDOOR FRONT SUNDAY. PRECIP CHANCES ON INCREASE AGAIN FOR
AFTERNOON WITH BEST TSRA CHANCE AFTER 20Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON OVERNIGHT CIGS.
HIGH ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  87  71  87 /  60  60  60  40
ATLANTA         72  86  72  88 /  60  60  60  40
BLAIRSVILLE     67  79  67  82 /  60  60  60  50
CARTERSVILLE    70  87  70  89 /  60  60  60  40
COLUMBUS        74  89  74  93 /  60  60  60  50
GAINESVILLE     71  83  71  85 /  60  60  60  40
MACON           72  89  72  92 /  60  60  60  50
ROME            71  88  71  89 /  50  60  50  40
PEACHTREE CITY  72  88  72  90 /  60  60  60  40
VIDALIA         73  92  73  94 /  60  60  60  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17/BAKER
LONG TERM...20/41
AVIATION...BAKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1210 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-100900-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1210 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NORTH GEORGIA AND
INTERACT WITH PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRIER AIR
SHOULD SPREAD INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER
THERE WILL STILL WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
827 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

GAZ022-033-034-045-100130-
827 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN DEKALB...FORSYTH...GWINNETT AND FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM
EDT...

AT 818 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER DORAVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
DEKALB...FORSYTH...GWINNETT AND FULTON COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM EDT.
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE MECHANICSVILLE...
CLARKSTON...DORAVILLE...CHAMBLEE...DUNWOODY...ROSWELL...ALPHARETTA...
PINE LAKE...TUCKER...NORCROSS...BERKELEY LAKE...STONE MOUNTAIN...
JOHNS CREEK...PLEASANT HILL AND SUWANEE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3393 8387 3376 8424 3403 8441 3421 8413
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 266DEG 4KT 3390 8424

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
858 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

GAZ014-015-022-023-034-100200-
858 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN LUMPKIN...DAWSON...FORSYTH...GWINNETT AND HALL COUNTIES UNTIL 1000
PM EDT...

AT 850 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER OSCARVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
LUMPKIN...DAWSON...FORSYTH...GWINNETT AND HALL COUNTIES THROUGH 1000
PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BUFORD
DAM-LAKE LANIER PARKS...AQUALAND PARK...LAKE LANIER ISLANDS...FLOWERY
BRANCH...CHESTATEE...COAL MOUNTAIN...MATT...SILVER CITY...
OSCARVILLE...LUMPKIN...DOUGHERTY...OAKWOOD...WAR HILL PARK...AURARIA
AND GAINESVILLE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3452 8384 3450 8384 3451 8382 3442 8364
      3437 8367 3434 8365 3411 8403 3427 8420
      3459 8397
TIME...MOT...LOC 0058Z 232DEG 13KT 3426 8399

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