Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
346 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER ALABAMA IS
PROGGD BY MODELS TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WSW OVER SOUTH LA/MS/AL BY
EARLY TUESDAY... WHERE IT CONTINUES TO SPIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT... THE STATE REMAINS ON THE MOIST AND ACTIVE EAST SIDE
WHERE MODELS AGREE ON A SERIES OF WEAK VORT LOBES TRAVERSING AROUND
THE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS... WILL LEAN TOWARD PERSISTENCE AND EXPECT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION...WITH SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WEST OF ATLANTA... AND
SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR EAST OF ATLANTA THROUGH THIS EVENING...
AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. EXPECT SPOTTY SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE EACH NIGHT.

SPC IS SHOWING ONLY A GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOK FOR THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT... AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE WITH VERY LITTLE WIND
SHEAR OR FORCING. THEREFORE... NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE
GREATER CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS TRAINING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER AN ALREADY WET GROUND COULD QUICKLY
PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT... THE GREATER THUNDERSTORM
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY 11 PM EACH EVENING.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE PERSISTENT MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH AMPLE
CLOUDS AND INCREASED RAIN POTENTIAL WILL WARRANT LEANING TOWARD
PERSISTENCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS AGAIN ON TUESDAY. MAY SEE
SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE EAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS OVER LOWER
LA.

39

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES. MODELS STILL KEEP HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT
BAY...CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. BY LATE TUESDAY. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO STATES AT THIS TIME...KEEPING AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE MOISTURE
POSITION OVER THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
GOOD CHANCE POPS OR HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON. THURSDAY ANOTHER FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION...TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. NORTHWEST
FLOW PREVAILS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MODELS SUGGESTING THE ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL USHER SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON TIMING...ESPECIALLY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND HAVE GENERALLY KEPT POPS LOW IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS...AND INTO THE GOOD CHANCE CATEGORY EACH DAY.

HAVE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE AFTERNOON PERIODS WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE DIURNAL
ENHANCEMENT OF THE CONVECTION. ADVERTISED INSTABILITIES STILL LOOK
TO SUPPORT STRONG TO POTENTIALLY BRIEF SEVERE STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON...BUT ON THE WHOLE STILL EXPECT THE MAJORITY TO BE SUB-
SEVERE WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING HEAVY RAINFALL. PWS CONTINUE TO
BE HIGH /WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/ AND LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS
WHERE STORMS HAVE LITTLE MOVEMENT...OR WHERE STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER
THE SAME LOCATION. THINKING IS STILL THAT THE FLASH FLOOD RISK IS
ISOLATED/LOCALIZED...AND HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY KIND OF WATCH AT THIS
TIME.

GENERALLY NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO LOOK APPROPRIATE FOR THE WEEK GIVEN THE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION WHICH WILL LIMIT INSOLATION.

31/01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
UPPER LOW MEANDERING OVER NORTH AL/MS WILL HOLD TAF SITES DEEP IN A
WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED... WILL
LEAN CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE THRU THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENT VFR CIGS WILL
PREVAIL EACH AFTERNOON WITH TEMPO -TSRA AND MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON. LIFR/IFR CIGS WILL RETURN TONIGHT
WITH PATCHY 2-4SM -DZ/BR PROBABLE. WINDS WILL DANCE BETWEEN SSW AND
SSE THIS AFTN...THEN BACK MORE EAST TONIGHT AND REMAIN MAINLY SSE ON
TUE. SPEEDS OF 7KTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN ALL ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  84  70  91 /  50  60  50  30
ATLANTA         72  84  70  88 /  50  50  40  30
BLAIRSVILLE     68  80  64  83 /  50  60  50  40
CARTERSVILLE    71  85  69  89 /  50  50  50  30
COLUMBUS        72  87  72  92 /  50  50  40  30
GAINESVILLE     70  82  69  87 /  50  60  50  40
MACON           72  86  70  91 /  50  50  40  30
ROME            71  87  70  90 /  50  50  50  40
PEACHTREE CITY  71  84  69  89 /  50  50  40  30
VIDALIA         73  87  73  93 /  50  60  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...39

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1056 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-221500-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1056 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND AREAS THAT HAVE
SLOW MOVING STORMS...OR WHERE STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATION...FLASH FLOODING MAY BE A CONCERN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A WET WEEK IS EXPECTED...WITH GENERALLY SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED STRONG TO
BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
457 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

GAZ041-212130-
457 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY RAIN IN HARALSON COUNTY
UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 455 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER TALLAPOOSA...THAT WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.
MPH.

RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES ACROSS
HARALSON COUNTY...INCLUDING AREAS AROUND TALLAPOOSA. ADDITIONALLY...
COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE
SUBJECT TO MINOR FLOODING.

&&

LAT...LON 3381 8536 3379 8524 3367 8532 3368 8535
      3370 8536 3374 8536
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 296DEG 4KT 3373 8532

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
513 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

GAZ059-071-072-212200-
513 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY RAIN IN MONROE...JONES AND
JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 511 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM BERNER TO 5 MILES EAST OF JARRELL
PLANTATION...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES ACROSS
MONROE...JONES AND JASPER COUNTIES...INCLUDING AREAS AROUND JARRELL
PLANTATION...JULIETTE AND BERNER. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND
FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE SUBJECT TO MINOR
FLOODING.

&&

LAT...LON 3318 8385 3314 8361 3303 8363 3308 8389
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 186DEG 3KT 3311 8387 3309 8377
          3308 8364

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
615 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

GAZ076-085-086-212300-
615 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY RAIN IN JOHNSON...EMANUEL
AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 613 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOUISVILLE TO NEW HOME...MOVING SOUTH AT 10
MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS THEY MOVE ACROSS
JOHNSON...EMANUEL AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE NEW
HOME...MOXLEY...WADLEY...BARTOW...LOUISVILLE...BLUNDALE...KITE...DELL
WOOD...THREE POINTS...MODOC...COLEMANS LAKE...SUMMERTOWN AND MEEKS.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED FOR WINDS UP TO 50
MPH...HAIL LESS THAN THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...SIGNIFICANT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...OR HEAVY RAIN.

&&

LAT...LON 3261 8262 3279 8270 3278 8266 3282 8252
      3292 8251 3298 8254 3311 8240 3300 8227
      3293 8227 3284 8231 3281 8222 3282 8215
      3269 8209 3264 8205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 338DEG 9KT 3305 8238 3278 8233
          3274 8260