Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
715 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WEAK
UPPER RIDGING IS TRYING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER AMPLE
MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY
DIURNAL...CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN MODERATE BUT
SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE
A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGICAL
ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. LIKEWISE...INSTABILITY REMAINS MODERATE
AT BEST BUT SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
EACH AFTERNOON. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AS
FREEZING LEVELS AND WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN A BIT HIGH FOR A
LARGE HAIL THREAT.

20

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AMPLIFICATION OF
RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS CONUS BEGINNING SUNDAY/MONDAY STILL ON
TRACK PER 00Z MED RANGE MODELS...WHICH SHOW VERY GOOD AGREEMENT.
WRN RIDGE BUILDS NORTH WHILE NICE UPPER LOW AND BROAD/DEEP TROUGH
PROGGED TO DIP INTO UPPER MIDWEST STATES MON. BULK OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE STATE BUT SHOULD SEE A BRIEF PUSH
OF DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON WED. AS WESTERLIES
ALONG PERIPHERY TROUGH MOVE OVER THE STATE TUES THEN RETURN BACK
NORTH ON THURS...SHOULD SEE GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION. NO TROPICAL
ACTIVITY OR OTHER HIGH IMPACT EVENTS SEEN IN MODEL GUIDANCE. USED
BIAS CORRECTED BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR PATCHY-AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. IFR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY CEILINGS
POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED TODAY. SURFACE
WINDS ENE LESS THAN 10 KTS OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  92  71  94 /  40  30  10  20
ATLANTA         72  91  73  91 /  30  30  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     63  87  63  88 /  20  20  10  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  91  68  92 /  20  20  10  20
COLUMBUS        72  94  73  94 /  40  30  20  20
GAINESVILLE     71  90  72  91 /  30  30  10  20
MACON           70  93  70  93 /  40  30  20  20
ROME            67  91  68  92 /  20  20  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  68  91  68  92 /  30  30  20  20
VIDALIA         72  92  72  95 /  40  50  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AVIATION...BDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
615 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-121015-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
615 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING MAINLY
EAST OF A CARROLLTON TO BLAIRSVILLE LINE BETWEEN NOON AND 10 PM.

DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA SHOULD PRECLUDE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE...BUT ELSEWHERE MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW STORMS TO APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS ONCE
AGAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

DRIER AIR MAY FILTER ACROSS THE REST OF GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND
LIMITING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER AS MOISTURE RETURNS
MONDAY...THE CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE. THE MAIN HAZARDS
FROM ANY STORMS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
SUBMIT STRONG STORM REPORTS THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
601 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

GAZ021-022-033-034-112230-
601 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING IN CHEROKEE...FORSYTH...GWINNETT AND FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL
630 PM EDT...

AT 559 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM CANTON TO SUWANEE...NEARLY STATIONARY.

RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES ACROSS
CHEROKEE...FORSYTH...GWINNETT AND FULTON COUNTIES...INCLUDING AREAS
AROUND MOUNTAIN PARK...SUWANEE...DULUTH...BIRMINGHAM...JOHNS CREEK...
MILTON...ALPHARETTA...BROOKWOOD...WOODSTOCK...LEBANON...HOLLY
SPRINGS...SUTALLEE...HICKORY FLAT...KELLOGG CREEK AND HOBGOOD PARK.
ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS
AND STREAMS ARE SUBJECT TO MINOR FLOODING.

&&

LAT...LON 3411 8391 3397 8407 3404 8438 3405 8442
      3407 8442 3408 8449 3413 8466 3422 8466
      3432 8445
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 250DEG 6KT 3421 8450 3415 8424
          3406 8403

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
623 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

GAZ096>098-109-111-112300-
623 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING IN WHEELER...TREUTLEN...LAURENS...BLECKLEY AND DODGE
COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 622 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM ROWLAND TO BARNHILL...MOVING SOUTH AT 10
MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS WHEELER...TREUTLEN...LAURENS...BLECKLEY AND DODGE COUNTIES
THROUGH 700 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS
INCLUDE BARNHILL...LOTHAIR...SOPERTON...LOWERY...RENTZ...DEXTER...
GOLDSBORO...REBIE...ROWLAND...CHESTER...CADWELL...LANDSBURG...
CADWELL...GLENWOOD AND ALAMO. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3213 8294 3215 8293 3213 8295 3219 8327
      3255 8324 3243 8289 3241 8254 3233 8256
      3231 8265 3216 8261 3213 8263 3209 8261
      3205 8262
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 000DEG 7KT 3244 8315 3233 8289
          3230 8266

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