Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
339 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENTLY... A DEVELOPING ACTIVE SW FLOW ALOFT IS INTERACTING WITH A
MOIST /1.5+ PW'S/ AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS /2500-3000 J/KG CAPE/ TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON... AND EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE
EVENING. THE CONVECTION IS TROPICAL IN NATURE... DUMPING VERY HEAVY
RAIN... AND WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT... THE MAIN THREATS CONTINUE TO BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEF FLOODING. OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH IS ALSO LIKELY. IT APPEARS
SEVERE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT TO GREATLY DIMINISH BY 10 PM THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING... HOWEVER... APPROACHING DISTURBANCES FROM THE WEST
WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR THE FORECAST... SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE ON DEEPENING A LONG
WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE MS VALLEY REGION TONIGHT THAT WILL BEGIN TO
DRIFT EASTWARD ON TUESDAY... THEN BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT ACROSS THE
STATE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW A STRONG DISTURBANCE
KICKING EAST OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON DURING MAX
HEATING. THIS WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE ON-GOING SCATTERED CONVECTION
TUESDAY MORNING... RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW SCATTERED POPS OVERNIGHT...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH EXPECTED UPPER SUPPORT. AREA PW'S ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH
THE EXPECTED SLOW STORM MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE THE MAIN THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AGAIN ON TUESDAY. INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SHOULD HELP HOLD STORM WIND GUSTS UNDER 40 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE... WET GROUNDS FROM STORMS WILL FAVOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS... PERSISTENCE IS THE KEY FOR LOWS AGAIN TONIGHT AND
LIKELY AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT... WHILE HIGHS ON TUESDAY HOLD ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED
RAIN COVERAGE.

39

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL LOOKING FOR AN ACTIVE PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM. OVERALL..NOT MUCH IN TERMS OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED SO
HAVE INCLUDED THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. MAIN CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST WAS THURSDAY. HAVE TRIMMED THE POPS BACK ACROSS WESTERN
GEORGIA INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

11

/ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2014/
A MOIST WSW UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE LONG
TERM ALLOWING FOR SHORT WAVES TO ENHANCE ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
BY FRIDAY THE EUROPEAN BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA
STRONGER THAN THE GFS AND THIS DIFFERENCE CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE LONG TERM COMBINED WITH DAY TIME
INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE A
DEFINITE DIURNAL TREND FLARING UP IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...THEN DIMINISHING OR ENDING DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

LEANED TOWARDS HIGHER POPS WEDNESDAY THEN FAVORED WPC POPS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FORECAST HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF
NORMAL.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS... THEN MAINLY SCT SHRA OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL VFR CIGS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY AND AGAIN ON TUE... EXCEPT POSSIBLY LOWER AROUND THE
NUMEROUS CONVECTION EXPECTED TODAY AND AGAIN ON TUE. MOS GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY IFR/MVFR CIGS BY 09-12Z TUE...
ESPECIALLY AROUND SHOWER ACTIVITY. CURRENT LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL
SETTLE TO MORE SE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SSW BY TUE MORNING... THEN
MORE WEST BY TUE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS 7-8KTS OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF WIND DIRECTIONS AND LOW CIGS TUE
MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  86  69  91 /  50  90  50  50
ATLANTA         71  86  70  88 /  50  90  50  50
BLAIRSVILLE     67  79  65  82 /  50  90  50  60
CARTERSVILLE    70  85  69  88 /  50  90  50  50
COLUMBUS        71  89  72  90 /  50  80  40  50
GAINESVILLE     71  84  69  87 /  50  90  50  50
MACON           71  88  70  93 /  50  80  40  50
ROME            70  85  70  89 /  50  90  50  50
PEACHTREE CITY  69  86  69  89 /  50  90  50  50
VIDALIA         72  89  72  95 /  50  70  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...39

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
351 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-242000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
351 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
HEAVY RAIN WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. IN ADDITION...SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
TODAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BEST TIMING FOR THE STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE THROUGH 10PM. WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS TODAY...THE MAIN
THREAT IS HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLASH FLOODING. WIND
GUSTS TO APPROXIMATELY 40MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER
STORMS...IN ADDITION TO LIGHTNING. COMBINED WITH THE WET
GROUND...THESE WIND SPEEDS ARE ENOUGH TO DOWN A FEW TREES. ALTHOUGH
HAIL IS POSSIBLE...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE SMALLER
SIDE...GENERALLY PEA SIZED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY THEN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. SOME STORMS WILL BE STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE MOST LIKELY HAZARDS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HAIL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
SUBMIT REPORTS OF STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY
GOING TO WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

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