Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
734 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BUT WITH A WEAK
BOUNDARY /TAIL END OF A SURFACE FRONT WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW WAY UP IN MAINE/ SHOWING UP AS AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA WHICH WILL HELP TO FOCUS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO
GENERAL PROXIMITY AROUND THIS BOUNDARY...AND SO HAVE LEFT POPS OUT
OF SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. CAPE VALUES FOLLOW SUIT WITH GENERALLY LESS
THAN 600 J/KG MUCAPE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BUT BETWEEN 2000-2500
J/KG ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. EVEN THOUGH FLOW ALOFT IS WEAK...THE
PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO
BECOME STRONG AND CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE...SPC DOES HAVE A
GOOD CHUNK OF NORTH GEORGIA IN THE 5% RISK AREA FOR WIND AND HAIL.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING ARE OF COURSE ALWAYS THREATS WITH
SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.

THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AS THE
PARENT LOW PUSHES EVEN FURTHER NORTHEAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY BRINGING ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO ENHANCE POPS EVEN FURTHER
ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE MORE
COVERAGE OF STORMS ON THURSDAY...WHAT INTENSITY THERE IS TO THEM
TODAY SHOULD DROP OFF FOR TOMORROW WITH CONTINUED REDUCTION IN
INFLUENCE FROM THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

TEMPS CONTINUE TO HOVER A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE
SHORT TERM WITHOUT MUCH OF A BREEZE SO TAKE IT EASY IF YOU ARE
SPENDING ANY TIME OUTDOORS.

TDP

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD BUT BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE WEST BY THE WEEKEND. THIS LEAVES
THE FORECAST AREA IN A MOSTLY NORTHWEST TO WEST UPPER FLOW AND
MODELS HINT AT SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SOME WEAK RIDGING FOR THE FIRST OF THE
WEEK AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY.
GENERALLY A MOIST ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF DYNAMICS. LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY A DIURNAL PATTERN THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. HAVE FAVORED THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF POSSIBLE SHORT WAVES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURES LOOK OKAY...A BIT WARMER
CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
PATCHY MVFR FOG THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AS LOW VFR CU 4-5KFT DEVELOPS. EXPECT CONVECTION FOR
NORTHERN TAFS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE INTRODUCED TEMPO FOR 19-21Z
FOR BEST GUESS TIMING...OTHERWISE VCSH. WINDS GENERALLY LGT/VRB
BUT FAVORING SW TODAY...SE TONIGHT AND THU MORNING...AND SW TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD AT ATL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON OCCURRENCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MEDIUM-LOW ON IMPACTS
TO ATL.
MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTION.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          94  68  94  72 /  20  10  20  20
ATLANTA         91  72  91  73 /  30  20  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     86  64  86  67 /  40  30  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    92  67  92  70 /  30  30  30  20
COLUMBUS        94  72  94  74 /  20  10  30  20
GAINESVILLE     91  70  91  72 /  40  30  30  20
MACON           94  67  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
ROME            93  67  92  70 /  30  30  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  92  66  92  70 /  30  20  30  20
VIDALIA         93  71  92  73 /  10   5  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
423 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-190830-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
423 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...EXCEPT FOR
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO
FOCUS THE THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STRONG STORMS AND POSSIBLY
A FEW SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1226 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

GAZ006>008-014-015-181730-
1226 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY RAIN IN UNION...LUMPKIN...
DAWSON...FANNIN AND GILMER COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM EDT...

AT 1223 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM HIGDON TO JUNO. THESE STORMS
WERE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES ACROSS
UNION...LUMPKIN...DAWSON...FANNIN AND GILMER COUNTIES...INCLUDING
AREAS AROUND CAMP MERRILL...NIMBLEWILL...LEN FOOTE HIKE INN...GOOCH
MOUNTAIN SHELTER...HAWK MOUNTAIN SHELTER...SUCHES...GADDISTOWN...
BLACK GAP SHELTER...STOVER CREEK SHELTER...SPRINGER MOUNTAIN
SHELTER...MARGRET...MORGANTON...BLUE RIDGE...HIGDON AND COLWELL.
ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS
AND STREAMS ARE SUBJECT TO MINOR FLOODING. PEA SIZED HAIL AND WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3476 8390 3449 8403 3440 8425 3443 8426
      3447 8426 3447 8428 3468 8436 3479 8453
      3497 8446
TIME...MOT...LOC 1625Z 004DEG 0KT 3488 8444 3475 8426
          3450 8423