Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

WHILE SOME STORM INITIATION HAS OCCURRED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GA
THIS AFTERNOON IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN APPROACHES THE CWA THIS EVENING.

ALL EYES ON AN IMPRESSIVE MCC APPROACHING WESTERN TENNESSEE AND
PROGGED TRACK TO IMPINGE UPON WESTERN BORDER CLOSE TO 23Z THIS
EVENING. CAN PRETTY MUCH THROW MODEL GUIDANCE OUT THE WINDOW AS
NOTHING HAS HAD GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...EXCEPT FOR ORIENTATION OF VORT
MAXES IN THE 12Z GFS. WITH A PLETHORA OF LATENT HEAT RELEASE AND A
RESULTANT MESOLOW ALREADY ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM...IT HAS CREATED
ITS OWN ROBUST ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL LIKELY HOLD AS AN MCV DRIVING
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IT IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND ENCOUNTERING OTHER
DOWNSTREAM CONVECTION. THINKING THIS CLUSTER WILL FAVOR A SLIGHTLY
MORE SOUTHWARD TURN INTO AN AXIS OF MUCAPE NEAR 3000 J/KG. UPSTREAM
OFFICES HAVE REPORTED STRONG ENHANCED WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN BACK
SIDE OF THE COMPLEX WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ALSO NEAR 8-MB.
THUS...CANNOT RULE OUT WAKE LOW INFLUENCE PERHAPS MORE FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CWA OVERNIGHT AS WELL. DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW THIS ALREADY
MATURE COMPLEX WILL HOLD UP AS IT MAY WEAKEN AS WELL BEFORE REACHING
GEORGIA. ALL CONSIDERED...HAVE DECIDED TO UP POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE 00-05Z PERIOD SPREADING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL GA FOR STORMS AND INCLUDED WORDING OF
CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME LARGE HAIL AS WELL THOUGH NOT AS BIG OF THREAT AS THE DAMAGING
WINDS. AFTER A RECENT COORDINATION CALL WITH SPC...A MODERATE RISK
LOOKS TO BE EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHWEST GA TO INCLUDE AS FAR EAST AS
THE ATLANTA METRO AREA.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL LARGELY DICTATE
PLACEMENT OF RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES AND POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
FRIDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE PESKY NW FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED IN
OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY SO HAVE RAMPED HIGH END CHANCE POPS AGAIN BUT MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THIS. THE GFS HAS COOLER 500-MB TEMPS THAN
TODAY SO THERE MAY BE A GREATER RISK FOR LARGE HAIL WITH ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

BAKER

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXTENDED. STILL LOOKS LIKE SEVERAL
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORT WAVES WILL AFFECT THE CWA. TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD AN UPPER CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

41

PREVIOUS LONG TERM...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. FOR SATURDAY... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TN VALLEYS WHILE A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COUPLED
WITH 1500-2500 J/KG OF CAPE SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE SUPPORTING
SCATTERED STORMS ON SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW OF THESE
STORMS BECOMING STRONG SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH
THE FRONT PUSHES NORTH BY EARLY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE
LOW PUSHING INTO THE MID- UPPER MS VALLEY... A LINGERING MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS ON SUNDAY... AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON MONDAY. A LACK
OF FRONTAL FOCUS AND WEAK SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST STORMS ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE THE TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN... SUMMER TIME PULSE
STORMS... AND REMAIN BELOW STRONG TO SEVERE LIMITS. ALTHOUGH ECMWF
AND GFS SHOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO AT LEAST NORTH
GA ON MONDAY... THESE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY... WITH GFS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER
DISTURBANCE POSSIBLY ENHANCING STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS
THE FRONT MEANDERING MAINLY JUST NORTH OF THE STATE ON
MONDAY...THEN LIFTING NORTH BY EARLY TUESDAY AS MONDAYS
DISTURBANCE CUTS OFF OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AND SLOWLY LIFTS OFF
TO THE NE ON WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THESE
LATER PERIODS... WILL SHOW CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS AT MINIMUM... A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE. OTHERWISE... A MOS BLEND OF TEMPS CONTINUE TO SHOW DAYTIME
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S... WHILE LOWS HOLD
STEADY IN THE 60S AND 70S THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

39

&&

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION APPROACHING THE ATLANTA METRO AREA WILL
SWEEP ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS EVENING. METRO TAF SITES WILL SEE
MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z WITH THE KAHN TAF
SITE EXPECTED TO SEE MAIN IMPACTS 02-06Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION IN THE KCSG AND KMCN VICINITIES WILL HAVE THEIR MAIN
IMPACT 00-02Z. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION THROUGH 06Z WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST 6-10KT WITH STRONG GUSTS NEAR CONVECTION.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  89  67  88 /  40  40  30  30
ATLANTA         71  87  69  87 /  60  40  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     63  82  60  83 /  40  40  30  30
CARTERSVILLE    68  86  65  88 /  60  50  30  30
COLUMBUS        72  90  71  90 /  70  40  30  40
GAINESVILLE     69  86  67  85 /  40  40  30  40
MACON           70  91  69  91 /  60  40  30  40
ROME            68  86  65  89 /  60  50  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  69  88  66  89 /  70  40  30  30
VIDALIA         73  92  72  89 /  50  40  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...
FAYETTE...FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...HARALSON...HEARD...
MERIWETHER...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...
SOUTH FULTON...TROUP...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

&&

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...BAKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
518 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-062130-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
518 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

...SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
DAMAGING STRAIGHTLINE WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT...HOWEVER LARGE HAIL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE
MAIN THREAT AREA WILL BE MAINLY WEST OF ALINE FROM BLUE
RIDGE...TO ATLANTA...TO COLUMBUS.

DISCUSSION...
A LARGE AREA THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WERE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ALABAMA. THIS AREA WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS EVENING. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS
EVENING. AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO EAST AND CENTRAL GEORGIA LATE
TONIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM REMAINS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ALTHOUGH THE FRONT PUSHES NORTH BY SUNDAY... A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE ON TUESDAY AND HELP
ENHANCE STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED THIS EVENING. ALSO...SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY
GOING TO WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
713 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014

GAZ012>014-020>022-052345-
713 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 50 MPH WINDS IN PICKENS...
BARTOW...CHEROKEE...DAWSON...FORSYTH AND GORDON COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM
EDT...

AT 709 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM BLAINE TO STILESBORO...MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THESE STORMS MOVE ACROSS
PICKENS...BARTOW...CHEROKEE...DAWSON...FORSYTH AND GORDON COUNTIES
THROUGH 745 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS
INCLUDE WALESKA...LAKE ARROWHEAD...SALACOA VALLEY...TALMADGE...
HINTON...STILESBORO...CARTERSVILLE...SUTALLEE...TALKING ROCK...
BLAINE...EMERSON...RED TOP MOUNTAIN STATE PARK...BALL GROUND...CANTON
AND LITTLE RIVER LANDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3455 8465 3456 8452 3452 8421 3429 8412
      3418 8427 3417 8435 3413 8436 3410 8442
      3407 8443 3408 8484 3410 8500 3433 8461
      3458 8467 3458 8465
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 278DEG 40KT 3452 8456 3432 8450
          3410 8480

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
728 PM EDT THU JUN 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LINDALE                 34.19N  85.17W
06/05/2014                   FLOYD              GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOYD COUNTY EMA RELAYED A REPORT OF TREES DOWN ACROSS
            THE COUNTY. AT LEAST 9 TREES WERE REPORTED DOWN. MOST OF
            THE DOWNED TREES WERE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF
            THE COUNTY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1400656

AGIBBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
729 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014

GAZ031-032-060000-
729 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN PAULDING AND COBB
COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

AT 727 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER BURNT HICKORY RIDGE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS PAULDING
AND COBB COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF
THE STORM INCLUDE UNION...DALLAS...NEW GEORGIA...YORKVILLE...BURNT
HICKORY RIDGE...NEW HOPE...HIRAM...CROSS ROADS...BROWNSVILLE...LOST
MOUNTAIN PARK...POWDER SPRINGS...ACWORTH...KENNESAW STATE
UNIVERSITY...KENNESAW AND DUE WEST.

&&

LAT...LON 3395 8498 3408 8492 3407 8450 3380 8469
      3380 8472 3379 8473 3377 8483 3382 8504
      3389 8503 3394 8504
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 278DEG 20KT 3399 8485

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 PM EDT THU JUN 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W CALHOUN             34.50N  85.00W
06/05/2014                   GORDON             GA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED DAMAGE TO THE ROOF OF A CHURCH IN
            CALHOUN. ROOF PANELS WERE TORN OFF OF THE BUILDING

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1400657

AGIBBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
738 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014

GAZ004>007-060015-
738 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 45 MPH WINDS IN WHITFIELD...
MURRAY...FANNIN AND GILMER COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

AT 737 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM TENNGA TO CRANDALL...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS
WHITFIELD...MURRAY...FANNIN AND GILMER COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM EDT.
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE FORT MOUNTAIN STATE
PARK...CHATSWORTH...ETON...CRANDALL...SUMAC...CISCO...GREGORY...
TENNGA...BEAVERDALE...CONASAUGA LAKE...MOUNTAINTOWN...COHUTTA
WILDERNESS...JONES MILL...EAST ELLIJAY AND ELLIJAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3463 8429 3473 8481 3499 8490 3499 8430
TIME...MOT...LOC 2338Z 273DEG 34KT 3503 8474 3484 8470

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
739 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014

GAZ031-041>043-060030-
739 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 50 MPH WINDS IN PAULDING...
CARROLL...DOUGLAS AND HARALSON COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

AT 737 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF TEMPLE TO 19 MILES
WEST OF BOWDON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THESE STORMS MOVE ACROSS
PAULDING...CARROLL...DOUGLAS AND HARALSON COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM
EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE TALLAPOOSA...
BREMEN...WACO...BOWDON JUNCTION...MOUNT ZION...TEMPLE...ABILENE...
JOHN TANNER STATE PARK...BOWDON...VILLA RICA...LAKE VAL-DO-MAR...
CARROLLTON...TYUS...WINSTON AND DOUGLASVILLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3383 8510 3375 8469 3351 8486 3342 8512
      3343 8518 3345 8531 3372 8536
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 284DEG 38KT 3386 8508 3357 8554