Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
400 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF CONVECTION. CONVECTION SO FAR TODAY MORE ORGANIZED
SPATIALLY WITH TWO MAIN AREAS OVER EAST CENTRAL GA AND WEAKER
CONVECTION WHICH INITIATED OVER NE GA RIDGELINE...THIS IN SPITE OF
CONTINUED HIGH CAPE WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT IS ONLY SLIGHTLY
MORE UNSTABLE THAN PAST FEW DAYS. DOWNDRAFT CAPE IS FAIRLY LOW
GIVEN VERY WARM SFC TEMPS...PERHAPS DUE TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND
FAIRLY WEAK LAPSE RATES IN LOW LEVELS. RAIN RATES FAIRLY HIGH AND
CG LIGHTNING MORE PROLIFIC OVER EAST CENTRAL GA. EXPECT THIS AREA
TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WEST AND EXPAND A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE WEAKENING THIS EVENING. NO HAIL OR WIND REPORTS AS OF YET
BUT WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

WEDGE FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST LATE SUNDAY AND BUILD
WEST MONDAY...SO EXPECT DEEPER MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND
CONVECTION TO PUSH WEST INTO WESTERN PART OF CWA SUNDAY AND WEST
OF THE STATE MONDAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE. WILL
GET TO ENJOY ONE NICE DAY MONDAY BEFORE SE FLOW AND DIURNAL
CONVECTION RETURN.

USED EXPERIMENTAL GUIDANCE BLEND /DABF/ FOR TEMPS THAT USES RAW
MODEL GRIDS AND MOS IN AREAS OF HIGH POP AND CLOUD COVER AND BIAS-
CORRECTED MOS IN AREAS OF LOW POP AND CLOUD COVER.

SNELSON

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SE FCST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY SE IN TO THE
ATLANTIC WHILE STRONG E-W ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM BAJA
CA TO TX TO MID-SOUTH. THIS RIDGE FCST TO REMAIN STATIONARY
THROUGH LONG TERM PERIOD WITH WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE RIDGE AND
MAINLY REMAINING ALONG CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTH OF TN VALLEY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT EAST OF SRN RIDGE PROGGED TO WEAKEN BUT STILL
COULD SEE SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION TUES. COVERAGE MUCH LESS WED-
FRI AS FLOW AND WEAKER MID LEVEL TEMPS REMAIN JUST NORTH OF CWA.
IN THE GULF SEEING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE WITH
12Z CYCLE. GFS WANTS TO DEVELOP TROPICAL LOW OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE
ON WED/THU AND BRING IT NE TO FL BY THE WEEKEND. ECMWF DOES NOT
DEVELOP LOW. NO IMPACT TO GEORGIA IN EITHER SOLUTION ATTM BUT JUST
WORTH NOTING AS SOMETHING TO WATCH.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IN NEAR TERM IS LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE DROPPED FCST DOWN TO TEMPO 4SM TSRA
BASED ON EXPECTED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND ALSO TWEAKED TIMING
SOMEWHAT BASED ON TIMING OF CONVECTION LAST TWO DAYS. COVERAGE/
LIKELIHOOD SHOULD DIMINISH TO BELOW 30PCT BY 00Z AND BELOW 10PCT
BY 03Z. OTHER CONCERN IS IFR CIGS. ENTERING UNFAVORABLE TIME OF
YEAR TO SEE IFR STRATUS HOWEVER WITH RICH MOISTURE AND MODERATELY
STRONG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...HAVE MAINTAINED BKN008 CIG 08Z-
14Z AT MOST NORTH GA AIRPORTS INCLUDING KATL. MOS GUIDANCE ALSO
INDICATING A CHANCE OF THIS THOUGH RECENT RUNS BACKING OFF A
LITTLE. NO OTHER CONCERNS WITH FCST. EAST COMPONENT EXPECTED
THROUGH 00Z MON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL
OTHER ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          66  80  59  81 /  50  20  10  10
ATLANTA         68  79  62  79 /  50  40  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     61  76  55  76 /  40  20  10  10
CARTERSVILLE    66  79  61  80 /  40  40  20  20
COLUMBUS        70  83  65  83 /  50  50  20  20
GAINESVILLE     66  77  61  78 /  50  20  10  10
MACON           68  82  61  83 /  60  30  20  10
ROME            67  80  62  80 /  40  40  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  67  80  61  80 /  50  40  20  20
VIDALIA         69  82  64  82 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...SNELSON

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